adambr2

I'd prefer to spend the money on a short-term deal on a very high value shortstop, but there really isn't one. The upcoming shortstop FA market is awful. If you can get someone like Edwin Jackson or Kuroda for 2/$24M, I'm all for it. Nothing long term. Starting pitching contracts are going to be very market-drive this offseason, so it's hard to predict the costs.

My verdict hasn't really changed all along. Weeks is a good player. Whether it was a slump or injury-related, it really doesn't change things. I'd expect him to be a good player going forward. My thought all along has been that we should look at trading him when we have an in-house replacement ready. This year probably means that he won't be shopped this offseason, as his value will be low. If Green or Gennett look ready to take over mid-season next year or next offseason, I'd shop him then. If he puts together a healthy and productive 2013, he will help our team a lot and be very marketable after next year. I'm surprised anyone is still expecting Green to ever be ready. I haven't seen anything out of him that makes me think he's more than a career utility infielder. His contract is pretty reasonable for his expected production, so I wouldn't shop him for what I would expect to be a significant downgrade.

Yes there is. There is no CBA restriction on a salary floor or how much of your revenue must be invested in payroll, to my knowledge. If you're profiting $15M one year on a $100M payroll and your revenue and other costs/taxes remains the same and you have a $70M payroll, your profit increases to $45M. That $45M is retained earnings and invested for future use. I don't think that's an unreasonable assumption, that's simple economics.

In your post on the MLB forum (the 'young pitchers thread' iirc), you noted that you don't believe Greinke at ~$23M will be an investment where the return will match. I don't disagree with that. However, to then state that you would have zero hesitation about giving Hamilton comparable money, and imply that the team would get good return to match the value of the contract, seems odd. I don't think Hamilton isn't a good hitter, but his unreal performance in 2010 imo elevates expectations for him. His career .914 OPS seems like an accurate guesstimate as to what you'll get out of him at this point, and his avg. # of games played/season is just 123 (and that's with assuming 150 games for '12). He's not at all what I would describe as a good bet to provide production equivalent to $25M/yr. I really don't have a major beef with the idea of signing Hamilton, it's more that you dismissed Greinke out of hand as being unlikely to match $25M/yr. with production, and then have no doubts about the injury-prone, addiction-demon-battling Hamilton, who will enter his age-32 season in 2013. This post isn't meant as COMEATMEBRO, but I'm genuinely curious to hear why you wouldn't want to see Greinke given $25M/yr., but would have zero problem with paying that to Hamilton. Fair question. My first answer would be to say that I think Greinke is a bit (gasp) overrated. When you look at some of the elite pitchers of today and the last 10 years (Santana, Halladay, Cain, Lincecum, King Felix, etc), I don't think Greinke is quite there. I think he's on that next tier. Furthermore, even though I think the "pressure" knock on him is a little overblown, I am skeptical on his ability to not be psychologically affected by pitching in an extreme pressure situation like the playoffs. And if we can't be sure he can perform at his peak then, why even sign him? Just get guys that can get us there. I also think that over the course of an entire season, elite position players end up being a bit more valuable than elite starting pitchers, and elite starting pitchers have a higher risk of injury, even given Hamilton's situation. Is it a risk? Yes, but these types of players are usually signed well into their 30's. Braun is signed until he's 37, Prince until he's 36. He comes with some baggage, but in the right kind of environment, he has a chance to be one of the elite players in the league like he was in 2010. I guess I'd be more comfortable with 4/$90 or 4/$100, but 5/$125 wouldn't be a deal breaker for me.

I would sign Hamilton for 5/$125 in a heartbeat. The emergence of Fiers, Estrada, Rogers, and Peralta has kept us from needing to get heavily involved in the FA pitching market. 1) Aoki/Gomez 2) Weeks 3) Braun 4) Hamilton 5) Ramirez 6) Hart 7) Lucroy 8) Segura/Bianchi This is the best lineup in MLB and the best lineup in franchise history.

Here's the way I see it: Estrada, Fiers, Rogers, and Peralta are going to cost us about $500,000 each next year. They have all been pretty fantastic and deserving of rotation spots, albeit small sample size with Peralta and Rogers. So if you're going to replace them at potentially 20 to 25 times the cost, it had better be for someone who is a pretty guaranteed upgrade. There won't be a Randy Wolf type signing this offseason. And on Greinke, which is a change of my previous stance, I disagree on bringing him back. I don't think that the $23M a year that he will probably cost is going to produce a good return on investment. I would rather not even get involved. I would rather look at what we need to do internally. I even would be okay with going with a $70M payroll and keeping the extra revenue in the coffers for future use. There is one free agent that I would be willing to spend big money on in the offseason -- Josh Hamilton. I can't imagine any other signing making us more of an instant contender than him.

I'm starting to get on board with just going with the young starters next year. I actually don't even want to see them get involved in the Greinke sweepstakes anymore. I just no longer see the wisdom of a $23M per year investment in him. There are smarter ways for us to invest and win.

Marcum was about as much of an albatross as a playoff starter as you'll ever see last year. A veteran presence is overrated. I'd rather have a good pitcher than a veteran one. Not that Marcum is a bad pitcher, and not that he would bomb in the playoffs again, I just think that too much is made of having veteran starters in the playoffs. I doubt there's much correlation between experience and success as far as playoff starters go. I would be okay with Marcum on a one year deal too, just not for the qualifying $13M offer -- I'd be okay with more like 1/$7M or $8M.

They have 23 games left. Optimistically, I would say they need to go 17-6 and maybe better. With one of the wins being tomorrow. They need to sweep every easy team left on their home schedule -- Mets, Astros, and Padres. They can afford a few losses on the ten game road trip against the Pirates, Nationals, and Reds. Maybe 1 against the Braves. That's about it.

Yep, they absolutely still need to win tomorrow, or these first two wins are for nothing. Making up 4 games in 22 against several teams is a long shot. Making up 6 is asking too much.

They have a real catch 22 going on with Fiers right now. He's at 164.1 innings including his Nashville innings, which is almost 40 more innings than he's ever thrown in a year. So he's definitely entering the danger zone. But now that they're back in contention, they can't afford to lose him from the rotation. So they have to either pull the plug on a guy who is one of the main reasons that they're even still in this, or roll the dice that he will handle it fine and be second guessed for years if has any future effects. Not an enviable situation.

The Nationals have shut down Strasburg. So there's that. I'm sort of hoping that the Nationals and Reds will start giving some of their key players occasional rest days by then to keep them fresh for the postseason.

I'm going to say what might be an unpopular opinion and say -- not very much at all. This offense is arguably better than last year, and without looking up the numbers, I would say that they are. Yes, Braun/Fielder was still better than Braun/Ramirez, but Braun/Ramirez/Hart is better than Braun/Prince/McGehee. I think that concerns of how Braun would perform without Prince protecting him in the lineup were obviously very much overblown. The offensive emergence of guys like Lucroy and Gomez has certainly been huge. Not saying anything bad about Prince -- he is having a nice year and would still be welcome in our lineup. But I'm glad we didn't pay him - certainly not at the level that he got. The offense is not the issue with this team, and with every starter from this team under club control for next, it won't be the problem going forward. 1 through 7 this has to be one of the best overall lineups in the NL. (tied for 1st in runs scored, so yeah). Pretty sure Narron's job is safe.

Why were we so bad up until the end of July? Somehow we traded our best pitcher for a player of really no immediate value -- and got better. 100 games seems like a long time to just be really unlucky. It can't just be attributed to a bullpen return to the norm. There's been a little improvement, but 27th out of 30 is still pretty bad. I think the lineup 1-7 is as good as any right now.

Up 4-1, but this is one they will remember a long time if they blow it and drop out of the race. They should have 7-8 runs easy at this point. So many blown opportunities.

Great AB's by Luc and Gomez. Is there something about having the bases loaded and 0 out that makes this team completely lose it? Come on Bianchi, bail them out.

I don't see Green as a potential starter or 3rd baseman of the future. I think he's most likely a career utility infielder, at best.

Dumb call to have Bianchi sac bunting Gomez over to 3rd with nobody out. Big innings are good, Ron. They could put this game away. We don't always need to play for one run.

Stop trying to steal off Molina. Especially with the meat of the order coming up. Geez.

I cant continue to emphasize enough how stupid a replay-less MLB in 2012 is. (Having one exception for the option of checking on home runs does not constitute a replay system). Even Rock is warming up to it and he's as old school as they get.

At least they got 1. I guess.

I really can't stand umpires that adjust their strike zone based on the count. (A close 3-0 pitch is more likely to be called a strike, a close 0-2 pitch is more likely to be called a ball).

Geez Ishikawa. That didn't even make the plate.

Not a good start. Need this one. Just running out of time. They can't afford to be splitting series' with teams like the Marlins if they have any hope of staying in the race.

Devil's advocate question, but on the long shot that the Brewers made the playoffs, what's your playoff rotation? Have to be Gallardo and Marcum for sure, but then what? Thornburg and Peralta wouldn't be eligible. You don't really want to restart Rogers, Fiers, or Estrada after you shut them down. I'm sure they'd fine a way, but I'd be curious to see how they would piece together a playoff rotation.