adambr2

He's starting for our MLB team today, which in and of itself is a larger role than I think he ought to have.

Macha had Jeff Suppan as his opening day starter in 2009. I imagine if he had a top 3 in his rotation of Zach Greinke, Shaun Marcum, and Yovani Gallardo to work with, he could have scraped together a 27-24 record at this point in the season too.

I guess Roenicke meant what he said when he said that Hart to him is not an everyday player....yeeesh. And how about we can the whole Gomez in the 2 hole thing already, Ronny? If you're going to put out a lineup this ugly, at least flip Morgan and Gomez.

I thought I'd like him more than I have, I figured he'd be a pretty respectable baseball mind coming from a Mike Scioscia school. But to me he just seems lost. Telling us that Lucroy can't be moved up because he's too valuable in the #8 hole -- I just feel like the guy doesn't have a clue and what he does know about baseball is leftover knowledge from the 90's. At this point I definitely think Macha was a smarter baseball guy, but his personality just didn't fit in well with the players.

So let's hear some perfectly honest assessments of the performance of our new manager through his first 51 games. I'll start -- I'm not a fan. My first impression is that, like it seems to be a trend in this organization, he seems to overvalue the presence of veteran players. Kotsay is on pace for about 300 AB's, which is severe overkill to me, even with the injuries so far to Hart and Morgan. Nieves has managed to escape through the two months of the season unscatched as Lucroys backup despite having absolutely no offensive value and little defensive value. His aggressive philosophy sounds great to the casual fan on paper, but in practice has resulted in a number of costly baserunning mistakes and excessive outs on the basepaths. I wouldn't rate his bullpen use so far as all that horrible, but he, like many other managers before him, seems to be stuck in the mindset of having a "7th inning guy" and an "8th inning guy" without consideration to the situation. He has utilized extremely small sample sizes not only for bullpen matchups, but even to simply set lineups. On the subject of lineups, he insisted on forcing Gomez to be our #2 hitter, seemingly also stuck in another mindset that at the top of the lineup, fast = good, despite Gomez having major deficiencies that go against everything a #2 hitter should be, particularly OBP. He seemed particularly stubborn to abandon Gomez in the #2 hole, even after being deservedly roasted for continuing to do it. I'm not going to comment either way on his extreme use of shifts because frankly, I'm not certain what the ballpark is for runs saved vs. extra runs allowed with the use of the shifts. I won't leave him with nothing positive. I think that his team seems to respect him as a clubhouse figure and plays hard for him, and that counts for something. But as far as everyday managerial decisions; to me, he seems like a nice, underqualified guy trying to feel his way through the season. That would be find if we were in a rebuilding mode, but in a year that we intend to compete, it's a little bit concerning to me.

Are we talking about the same Craig Counsell, the one who is OPS'ing .508 this year? Betancourt is awful, but Counsell is equally atrocious and aging. He arguably has no remaining value as a bench player, much less a starter.

Yeah, Rivera is fine as a backup. I can't for the life of me understand why this organization is so in love with Nieves.

If teams have no reason to pitch to Prince, how is he leading the NL in RBI's along with having 11 home runs? Last year with McGehee hitting much better, Prince at the end of May had only 19 RBI and 7 home runs, this year he has 11/41. Last year at the end of May, Prince had been walked 33 times and so far this year he has been walked only 23 times. So even though last year up through May Casey was hitting much better than he has this year, Prince still has higher production this year and is being walked at a slightly lesser rate. Hell, a prime example was the 14 inning game vs Colorado. They were winning by a run in the 14th inning and didn't "pitch around" Fielder, even though struggling McGehee was on deck. Just because he leads the league in RBI's doesn't mean he isn't being pitched around. I'm not saying they're going to do it every time, but if McGehee's struggles become more prolonged, you bet you'll see Fielder's IBB's increase. (he's already 2nd in the NL). The Colorado game isn't really what I'm talking about at all. Braun was on 1st at the time, of course they're not going to intentionally walk the tying run into scoring position with 1 out in a 1 run game in extra innings, that would be insane. All I'm saying is that if McGehee continues to put up pedestrian numbers, Fielder will be pitched around whenever the scenario allows. Whereas with Hart or Lucroy batting 5, they may have to think twice about it, or at least we'd have a better shot at making them pay.

The lineup optimizer at baseballmusings.com has this as the best possible sabermetric lineup that we could have, at a whopping 5.041 runs per game, based on their current projected numbers for the rest of the season: Braun Fielder Lucroy Hart Weeks Betancourt McGehee Pitcher Morgan

Sorry, didn't see it. With Reyes definitely on the block and Betancourt still being Betancourt, it might be a good time to bump that one back up.

Okay, so let's talk about this. First off, is he available? I would say at this point he most certainly is. I would also say that judging by our performance so far this season, I'm buying into the idea that this could be a real special year, and we've already gone "all-in" so at this point, why not make a move to fix really the only major hole on the team right now? Reyes is only a 4 month rental at this point, which might help our bargaining position a bit. (if he's going to be a Type A or B, then obviously the Mets are going to want fair compensation to make up for that, but I think he's only a B right now at best). I'm not really sure on what the Mets needs are right now, but I assume they'd be looking for prospects. I'd certainly give them Gomez back if they were interested. The prospect cupboard is pretty bare at the moment, but there's a few pitching names at the top like Peralta and Rivas that they might be interested in. What kind of deal do you think it would take -- realistic possibility or not?

Even in the midst of a nice winning streak, what is hurting the offense right now is the production from the 5-hole. Teams have absolutely no reason to pitch to Prince if they don't have to because he's usually followed by McGehee and Betancourt. Unfortunately, I think Casey is starting to show he's pretty much what many people figured he might be all along -- just a guy, albeit the best option we have for an everyday starter at 3rd. Going forward, if we want to maximize our run production and protect Braun and Prince as best as possible, I see no reason that Lucroy and Hart shouldn't man the 2 and 5 holes in some order. Morgan is back in 2 days. How about an everyday lineup of: Weeks Lucroy Braun Fielder Hart McGehee Betancourt Morgan Now we're really putting all of our best bats together, and with Morgan down in the 8-hole (I wouldn't mind seeing him leadoff and see Weeks moved into more of a run producing slot, but I don't think it's going to happen anyway), we still get good production from the 8-hole which Roenicke so covets for some reason.

I know he's everyones favorite cult hero, but this is going to be the last year for Craig Counsell. He's just not a quality backup anymore.

I get that we want to improve our bench, but there has to be a better way to do it. First of all, Lucroy is a serviceable defensive player -- in other words, we don't need a defensive replacement for him, and he's an everyday option. So on the once a week or so occasion when Lucroy needs a rest, filling his spot with a complete offensive hack to save a little on D, is a curious decision at best. Which brings me to Wil Nieves. His ability to stick around on the 25 man roster for 2 months, relatively unnoticed, amazes me. He is OPS'ing .409 and is a below replacement value player overall for his career. There is no way I can believe that Nieves is a better 2nd catcher option than Kottaras. He's far younger, swings a much better bat, and would actually be a pinch-hitting option if necessary. Yes, you lose a bit defensively, but at least having him in the lineup is bearable, and you've got another lefty in the lineup when he does. Rivera is here I imagine solely for his bat, but if we really were looking for an extra bench bat, Branyan would have been better. You've still got Gomez (when Morgan returns) and Boggs as right-handed bench options. Now that beings said, I'd still prefer Rivera to Nieves as our second catcher, so if that's his role here, I'm fine with him on the roster, but Nieves still being on it is baffling to me.

Exactly. Gomez is a terrible fit in the #2 hole. He (along with Betancourt) are the worst in the lineup in regards to OBP. Plus, with Braun and Fielder following him, his speed advantage is somewhat lessened by the desire not to run as much with two sluggers following him. It doesn't make sense to me at all to keep forcing him in the #2 hole when his advantages are clearly in the field and in a lineup he belongs near the bottom of the card. I don't understand why Roenicke won't at least try Lucroy in the #2 hole. He's a low-strikeout guy, which you want in the #2 hole, and he carried a very good OBP at every level in the minors and has so far this year as well. His power stroke for the #2 hole isn't great, but it's adequate. As far as I can tell, he's as good of a fit for a #2 hitter as we have. Hart is the other one I'd consider, if he can start showing that last season wasn't a fluke. For now, I'd just go 1) Weeks 2) Lucroy 3) Braun 4) Fielder 5) McGehee 6) Hart 7) Betancourt 8) Gomez.

I don't get too excited about Gomez drawing a walk anymore or stringing together a couple multi-hit games, because I think we've seen enough of him to know that he'll make up for such streak by losing his approach and stringing together a couple bad offensive games. I'm to the point where I think Gomez just is who he is. He's a fast baserunner who will always be lousy at hitting and getting on base. But his elite defense in CF is enough to sort of even things out and at least make him a servicable starter in CF.

The only reason I wouldn't have him 8th is that I prefer my #8 hitter be able to be selective hitting in front of the pitcher, since there are plenty of situations in that spot where he's not going to see anything to hit, and pitchers already know that they don't really need to give Gomez anything to hit.

This "Gomez in the 2-hole" thing has got to stop. Gomez is an awful, awful fit for the #2-hole. He's the worst at getting on base, and he doesn't hit for power. He also makes more mental errors on the bases than anyone else in the lineup, so you've also got the most likely candidate to make an out on the basepath in front of Braun or Fielder. His only weapon, speed, is reduced by the fact that batting in front of Braun and Fielder, you should be less inclined to have him running. If you must start him, which, with Morgan out I agree you must, put him down in the #7 spot where he can't hurt anybody.

We've already cost ourselves enough outs on the basepaths with this silly over-aggression philosophy, we don't need to compound the problem. Also, you have to be on base to attempt a steal.

That's what walks will get you, Mr. Loe. Are we allergic to being more than 1 game over .500?

I did. I know it would have upset a lot of Brewer fans, but I was definitely advocating a trade for Hardy after 2008. It was the perfect situation -- quality shortstops post-2008 were at a major premium. The quality defensive play from Hardy had been anticipated, but what hadn't been anticipated is 2 straight .800 or so OPS seasons from the SS position. As such, he was worth a very substantial return, and one of our top prospects was a near-MLB ready SS. While I don't think anyone saw Hardy dropping off as far as he did, I think it was agreed by many here that his offensive output from 2007 and 2008 was not sustainable, and thus he was a very good trade high candidate. Also, we lost our #1 and #2 starting pitchers after 2011 to free agency and our closer to retirement, and had to plug our rotation with guys like Braden Looper. Hardy had 2 years left at the time after which he was considered pretty likely to leave, and it was pretty apparent that while .500 was a realistic goal in 2009, the playoffs were not. So while it would have definitely been an unpopular decision, I think from some perspective, there was definitely some solid logic behind trading Hardy post-2008.

I suppose with Estrada pitching well, (and the rotation in general in pretty good shape), they're not feeling a major sense of urgency to rush it. I was hoping he would be able to pitch both on the road trip in both Atlanta and St. Louis, but the way he's lining up, May 4th will be the earliest, so he'd miss the Cardinals series.

I think they're necessary, but Greinke getting a MINIMUM of 3 rehab starts sure seems like overkill to me.

Doesn't think make a lot of sense right now? Free up Morgan to start every day, and get us an upgrade at SS. Specifically, say something like: Gomez + Rogers + Betancourt + cash (to cover Betancourt's salary) to TORONTO for Yunel Escobar + mid-level prospect Gomez gets a shot in Toronto, the Blue Jays are looking to get younger, and while Escobar had a down year last season, he's been great for his career. The Blue Jays get Betancourt back and we eat his salary, which gives them a cheap stop gap until Hechavarria makes it up to the big leagues. This gives us an eventual lineup of: 1) Morgan 2) Hart 3) Braun 4) Fielder 5) Weeks 6) McGehee 7) Escobar 8) Lucroy 9) Pitcher Elite lineup to go along with good pitching staff, and our defense gets better in the process.

Yes they do. I've been watching this team since 1990, and over that time, they've made it impossible for me to be optimistic in any situation. Maybe it's just perception, but it just feels like they always find a way to fail.