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adambr2

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Everything posted by adambr2

  1. adambr2
    I agree. Wasn't referring to anyone here, just the Twitter masses.
  2. adambr2
    Nonsense is pretty harsh. Is there a better valuation system out there? Is it even possible to do better? It's not perfect. It was never meant to be perfect. I think they are doing the best they can with it and doing a pretty good job. It can't be easy trying to put a cash value on every asset in an organization's system, with so many different factors at play (contract, negative value, upside, non-tangible value as franchise face, just to name a few). I respect that someone is attempting to do that, because it at least gives us a starting point.
  3. adambr2
    I'm going to guess that if Hader is traded, Peralta and Burnes both make the opening day roster but both as relievers. Based on nothing but my own hunch.
  4. adambr2
    As others have said, TJseven knocked it out of the park with his post. Perfectly explained why this is the absolute ideal move for this team and brilliant strategy. The upside is tremendous, and I think it's huge that it it pans out the way we hope, it's for 3 years, not 1. The ceiling here is to get Hyun-Jin Ryu type results. I don't expect that, but that's the ceiling. The downside is we're out a very tiny amount of money if it doesn't pan out and he can still probably be used in the pen. So in other words, there's almost no downside. There's obviously no guarantees, but this move is textbook David Stearns brilliance getting this much possible upside for this little while all the other bounceback guys are signing for 8-10M a year. I hope those blasting the move on Twitter just because they've never heard of the guy are big enough to eat their words if it pans out as hoped.
  5. adambr2
    When Stearns was asked about the Hader chatter the other day I thought it was pretty interesting that he was fairly coy about it. Even if he was shopping him, I expected something along the lines of "We value Josh as one of the best pitchers in baseball and unless something changes we look forward to seeing him in a Brewer uniform for years to come," but there wasn't even that. Maybe I'm reading too much into it but I would put the chances at 50/50, at best, that Josh Hader is a Brewer in 2020. As we know however things can change quickly. After the near-trade of Braun in August 2016 I didn't see it as likely for him to be back in 2017 either.
  6. adambr2
    To think if Mark Cuban had just trusted his GM and not overridden him, none of this would be possible.
  7. adambr2
    You don't pay full market value 3 years out from free agency. 7/300 might be a realistic extension for him 3 years from now but you'd never commit to that full amount this early.
  8. adambr2
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/josh-hader-trade-rumors-yankees-dodgers-mets.html
  9. adambr2
    He's actually wrong quite a bit. Before the return for the Narvaez trade was announced, someone asked him about the return possibly being Ashby and he gave a somewhat snide response saying that would never be enough for Narvaez. Combine that with the fact that he'll block you the second he doesn't like what you say and I can understand why people rip on him.
  10. adambr2
    Well, 200M is a pretty big sure thing. It's quite a bit different than his first deal. But you may be right. We will probably find out as there will certainly be a lot more chatter about it in the near future.
  11. adambr2
    He did that once. Can't see him, now established as 10x the player and watching guys get paid, doing it again. Sure, maybe that's his goal. But if he suffers a career ending injury in the next 3 years or starts hitting a wall at 30 and becomes the very good but not elite player he used to be, that possibility is gone. Maybe he'd rather lock down $200M now 3 years out and never worry about a financial thing again or where he's going to play next. Who knows, every player is different.
  12. adambr2
    7/200 on an extension for Yelich sounds pretty close. He's younger and more valuable than Rendon, but 3 years out from free agency you're obviously expecting a discount. So whether Yelich would want to extend this far out or whether the Brewers would want to extend this far out remains to be seen.
  13. adambr2
    I think he'll get a 4th year and top 25M AAV, to be honest.
  14. adambr2
    If you're not happy with this signing, you're free to state that, but Homer already asked you to stop bringing this argument into every thread. Thanks. I will just stop posting then...It's not the same argument, but I guess if I don't conform to all the others here, I get "singled" out. Most here are totally comfortable with the Brewers off season so far, I guess they are allowed to be. I'm not, because I don't care for small time thinking, I never have, never will(and not just as it relates to the Brewers, but life in general), but because I don't agree with the Brewers small time thinking, I'm the guy that takes all the bullets, I get it. But it is the same argument. Almost every one of your posts makes one or more of the same basic points - Why don't we spend money on a big name TOR? Or trade for one?! - Minor signings don't move the needle! - You get what you pay for! These guys get paid big money for a reason! - We could easily sign one of these guys if we wanted to DS is just being cheap! We are all totally clear where you stand by now.
  15. adambr2
    NOT if we are on the hook for 48 million or more. You are talking about Price like he's just terrible. He is still a pretty effective pitcher. $48M doesn't buy what it used to. In this market, you'd be really hard pressed to find a better deal than 3/48 for a pitcher with the resume and numbers of Price, much less pick up extra for him. 3 years is not a terribly long commitment.
  16. adambr2
    I vaguely remember the Brewers slapping him around a bit while he was a young Pirate reliever. But after reading about the changes he made during his time overseas, and how he completely remade himself as a pitcher, he was a guy I hoped they'd target. It's really a very low-risk signing and could potentially pay HUGE dividends. I love it. It's interesting that they went 3 years with him, makes me wonder if they're thinking exactly that, hit big and have two crazy good value years.
  17. adambr2
    Ok. Can you come up with a proposal of sorts that makes sense for both us and a trade partner? Any suggestions? You can't just say to trade Hader for a TOR starter, it's not that easy. Other teams like having TOR starters as well. Contending clubs aren't usually looking to trade them away, and rebuilding clubs aren't usually looking to trade theirs for relief aces with 4 years of control.
  18. adambr2
    Why would that philosophy apply to Hader and not Lindor? Has offense really been the issue that has kept the Dodgers from a WS title? See I just don't really look at it like this. Winning a World Series involves luck and timing as much as anything else. The Dodgers have definitely had good enough teams to win the World Series. The Nationals, who just won it all, had one of the worst pens in baseball. When the Royals won it a few years ago they had one of the worst rotations but an elite bullpen. I think it's been shown there's no one best way to build a World Series winner. I think the best way in recent history has just been to be really, really good at something. I think Francisco Lindor, regardless of what the Dodgers' strengths and weaknesses are, gives them a better chance to win a World Series in the next 2 years than Josh Hader does.
  19. adambr2
    I respect your opinion, and I understand where you're coming from. I'm not necessarily saying to make a deal for Arenado, though we are talking about a generational 3rd baseman that definitely gives us a great chance to win the World Series in the next 3 years. With that said, I personally feel you have very unrealistic expectations for prospect development. The odds of Small, Rasmussen, and Ashby being in a future rotation for the Brewers at the same time are somewhere between nonexistent and very slim. The last generation of these prospects was Woodruff, Hader, Burnes, and Peralta. Before that, it was Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Tyler Thornburg, Mark Rogers and Cody Scarpetta. My point is that you're simply not going to get the career trajectory out of so many of these guys that you hope for. Some will (hopefully) live up to their promise. Many will wind up in the pen. Many others will just never make it. I am not saying you should always trade prospects for major league proven talent, every time. Far from it. But there are times when you do have to look past the talent and promise and make a move for now, because the numbers game has proven time and time again that they're just not always going to pan out for you. If you don't, you'll miss out on the opportunities for the Christian Yelichs of the world. It wasn't long ago that many of us saw Isan Diaz as the surefire 2B of the future and Lewis Brinson as a 30/30 mainstay in our future outfield.
  20. adambr2
    No one is saying "just" go out and draft your own ace. Everyone knows that is easier said than done. We simply can't buy an ace, so we are left with 2 ways to get one. Trade for one, or develop your own. Neither is an easy solution, so teams like the Brewers are left to figure out other ways to try and win. It is a sad state of affairs. Sure, just saying even if we do good chances they are already into arbitration, getting expensive, and there will be 50 transaction threads wondering when to trade him. Brandon Woodruff may be ours, and he is still under control for 5 years. Yes he will be a Super 2 and be arbitration eligible next year and will get pricier but it's still much better than paying full retail value. Woodruff is a good example of the necessary evil of service time manipulation. Not saying it was or wasn't done intentionally with him, but that extra year of control in 2024 is enormous.
  21. adambr2
    Urias plus Lutz is about fair, not that the Astros would necessarily do it. Ironically I think Urias makes a ton of sense in the deal as the Astros would be looking to cut cost but also want a guy they can start right away at SS There seems to be a ton of teams this offseason looking to dump guys to shed salary in trades. To the point where I wonder if DS has been dumping as much payroll as he has looking to take advantage of that and seeing it as a potential market advantage.
  22. adambr2
    Agreed - I'd much rather get a young, controlled, major-league ready player who can help fill 3B or SP than a prospect. Andujar would be nice. Urshella will be 28 already next year, and only walked 25 times in 476 PA's. The Brewers might be able to both get a potential TOR and fill other holes if they take Price from Boston. Boston really wants to get under the cap, and not many teams can or will take on Price's contract. Michael Chavis could fill 3B nicely, and I think the Brewers could extract more than that. I think you'd need Chavis plus someone like Benintendi to consider taking on the entirety of Price's contract. Chavis alone only gets them off the hook for part of his salary.
  23. adambr2
    That's a bummer but not too unexpected. I would think though, barring any setbacks that this isn't something that should keep getting pushed back and pushed back like Nelson's return the last 18 months.
  24. adambr2
    Arcia works in the deal, he's whatever, no real value either positive or negative. But holy smokes the Red Sox better be sending us more than David Price if they want us to take on the entirety of his remaining contract for a 34 year old pitcher. I'm not opposed to the deal, but there has to be more incentive than just taking on David Price for free.
  25. adambr2
    In general, yes. I don't think they ever wanted Hader to be locked into the closer role anyway, they just ran out of alternatives. I would still expect to see both get plenty of closing opportunities based on availability and game situations.
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