The problem with your scenario is that next year they would add $16M, plus they need to pick up the $11M for Moustakas, and if the re-sign Smoak that's another $9-11M added on. They also have Knebel, Shaw, Davies, Perez, Guerra, Gamel, Arcia, and Suter arby eligible. With the payroll already at a Brewer record, money becomes a major factor. Moose's 11M option almost certainly isn't getting picked up. As with most mutual options he either outperforms it and it's undermarket (looking likely) or he underperforms it and it's overmarket. It was most likely just a simple way to defer some salary to 2020, same with Grandal's option. Given Hiura's presence I seriously doubt Moose is here next year unless Shaw is traded or continues to completely flame out.