owbc
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Everything posted by owbc
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This loop of strike zone over time shows how much better umpiring has become: 2025 is incredibly good compared with 2007. When you look at 2025 you can barely see any room for improvement at all -- it looks like too many middle-height pitches off the plate get called strikes and too many pitches in the far, far corners get called balls. But other than that the challenge system is really about catching egregious, outlier misses. All evidence suggests that the immediate feedback of the challenge system makes umpiring even better, so 2026 will have even less misses than 2025.
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Still feels like there is little/no upside and a ton of downside from an investment strategy perspective. Iran’s entire strategy is going to be to disrupt economic activity.
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So far the markets have mostly shrugged it off. Oil prices driving inflation seems to be the biggest immediate risk.
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Put me in the "don't care" camp. He's getting paid to win games in October and anything before that is a bonus. -
I'm fine seeing Durbin go, I love "sell high" trades. But from a fan perspective, it will make it hard to get attached to role players since any overperformer who isn't a core star and doesn't have peripherals backing it up is headed straight for the trading block.
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My in laws who live in Vegas are on the list. Currently you have to buy all 6 games as a package. They asked if we were interested in coming to see the Brewers but the games are on weeknights and I don’t have much interest in going to the desert in summer. Personally I would expect tickets to be readily available for these games.
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Question of the week: grade the offseason
owbc replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I wonder how the FO would grade themselves... Woodruff accepting the QO set the tone for the offseason, ate up most of the budget, and triggered the call to trade Peralta. Do they regret extending the QO? I bet they would grade themselves highly on trade return. Peralta trade sets them up well for the future but could backfire in the short term with how important it is that Woodruff doesn't get hurt. They likely project the Durbin trade as lopsided in our favor. On FA signings, likely a high grade as well for gap filling the roster while not committing any $ beyond 2026. Who knows what the other potential options were. -
Personally I don’t think other buyers valued it at $50K which is part of the reason we got the house in the first place. The sellers did a pretty big set of upgrades (roof, solar, HVAC) which I found attractive.
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If you said that to a Pittsburgh Pirates fan they would probably punch you in the face.
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2028 Summer Olympics/player participation
owbc replied to liveforoctober's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I see comments dated October 2025. I think the conversation is worth having, I don't think the details have been ironed out yet (will be part of CBA I assume) and with the WBC coming up there will be more talk about it. -
2028 Summer Olympics/player participation
owbc replied to liveforoctober's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This is almost certain to happen, Manfred suggested it would be an 11-day break instead of the usual all star break. -
Wisconsin might have a chance when they expand to 48 in a few years
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Typical "buy low" move from the Brewers with our usual preference for defensive flexibility. Had a 110 or greater OPS+ in both 2024 and 2023. Fell off a cliff last year but Savant suggests that he mostly got unlucky. His xwOBA was basically the same as 2024, xSLG actually went up. I'm pleasantly surprised, I thought we were going to resort to dumpster diving but Rengifo is a proven major leaguer who could play every day if we really needed him to. His glove may be what ultimately costs him playing time, since he's not at the level of our other options.
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They win 100 games. They have a better Opening Day roster than 2025 and a ridiculous supply of near-MLB ready young talent to fold in as the season progresses. They do it by being #1 in MLB in run prevention. They come into 2026 with more pitching depth, a better bullpen, and better defense than 2025. They won't quite match their offensive output from 2025, but they will get close enough to improve as a whole. [disclaimer: I would officially project them for low-90s wins, there was definitely some luck involved in last year's win total and I worry about having worse injury luck. But I think 100 wins is their ceiling.]
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Regarding whether or not we are better than 2025, I think it's unfair to compare to the September roster, the real comparison is the Opening Day roster... Jake Bauers Vinny Capra Oliver Dunn Rhys Hoskins Joey Ortiz Brice Turang So...yes, we are in insanely better position with the infield than we were a year ago.
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I don't think it's controversial to say that if they can't turn Harrison into a MLB caliber starting pitcher then the trade will be a failure. It's also not controversial to say that the trade left a disaster on the left side of the infield from an offensive perspective. Really this trade is a straight up buy low, sell high.
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2025-26 Offseason Around the League Thread
owbc replied to sveumrules's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
At least he gets to be their ace and Opening Day starter! (not sure if that should be in blue or not...) -
The only thing missing is a World Series appearance, but that will come sooner rather than later if the current organizational trajectory continues. I always thought we would have to do it as underdogs but what's probably going to happen is there will be a year that we are just so freaking good that not even the Dodgers can stop us.
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Priester is the latest iteration of Wade Miley. Some guys are development projects and others are optimization projects. Priester is the latter. His FIP is never going to go much below 4 but his ERA will always outperform his FIP as long as he has Milwaukee's defense behind him. He induces contact that tends to be league average in terms of exit velocity and strongly favors ground balls. If you're going to put all of your chips into having a league best defense (at the expense of batting at times), then guys like Priester are exactly who you want in your rotation. Until they become expensive, then it's on to the next one.
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Trading Durbin and his 4th percentile exit velocity is one way to improve our power. How will we ever replace those 11 home runs that we got at 3B in 2025 (tied for 4th worst in MLB)????
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If Joey Ortiz was on another team right now he would be a guy that we would circle as a potential acquisition target. Plus defender with some track record of success coming off a rough year? That's our guy.
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I disagree. Half the guys the Brewers traded for this offseason are going to be traded again in the next 1-2 years. The Brewers show zero interest in optimizing for Opening Day. But they have not punted on the 2026 season at all -- their big ticket trades are not for low level prospects. They are targeting AAA types that often have MLB experience already. They are targeting guys that might not be very productive on March 26 but will very likely be productive by July or August. I think the organization has gotten bolder recently -- I think they are trying to make their depth chart so deep that they can make any move at any time if they think it adds value to the organization as a whole. Red Sox call and want Durbin? Great, let's make a deal that we calculate as a net value add for us. Next man up at 3B or we'll get another infielder in the next trade.
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The Yankees currently have nothing from that trade.
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Dylan Moore was one idea I had but he was signed by the Phillies to a minor league deal last week. Also another random thought -- it seems like all inhibitions are gone for this FO now. They've gone full Billy Beane.
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I’m of the belief that if you think you evaluate talent better than your competition then you should be making a lot of trades. We seem to have figured that out and are approaching Tampa and Seattle in trade volume lately. Nobody else constructs a roster like we do, turning this group into a 26 man by the end of March is going to be entertaining. And we’re surely not done trading.
