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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    Now he's learning what it feels like to get run support.
  2. owbc
    My wife and I are big Top Chef fans and are absolutely loving it. My wife is not from Wisconsin and only visited a few times, but she absolutely loves Wisconsin stereotypes and they are leaning hard into them. It's also a well-deserved spotlight for the highly underrated Milwaukee food scene. Fun fact -- I'll never be the most famous person from my high school class because of Charlie Berens 😂
  3. owbc
    Yep. Based on that statement, I think it's more likely than not that Tuesday is his last game. He's not the kind of person who is going to draw attention to himself and have a big farewell. That said, my heart still hopes that he'll be his usual self on Tuesday and he'll do plenty of games this year.
  4. owbc
    Record: 88-74 (1st NL Central) MVP: Contreras Cy Young: Peralta ROY: Chourio Top Newcomer: Chourio All Star(s): Contreras, Adames Breakout Player(s): Chourio, Uribe Disappointment(s): Hoskins (serviceable, but sub-.800 OPS) Bold Prediction(s): 88 wins is pretty bold and a lot needs to go right, but we're in a weak division and we just have to repeat what we did last year. No more serious injuries to key pieces. Chourio follows a Julio Rodriguez trajectory and is the best player on the team by the ASB. The core of Yelich, Adames, and Contreras all perform. We have the bats, we have young guys with upside, and we have a strong record of finding and developing pitching. Lets go.
  5. owbc
    That statement doesn’t give me a good feeling at all about how Bob is doing.
  6. owbc
    That's impossible to avoid. Teams with outdoor stadiums will continue to leave that gap day after their home opener whether it is the first or 10th game of the season.
  7. owbc
    Oh, that makes sense. I think this is only the second year that they have tried to have all 30 teams playing on "opening day"? I still suspect that it would add enough logistical complexity that they wouldn't want to bother with it, but you never know. That got me thinking -- are there even enough stadiums to pull this off? Roof: Milwaukee, Toronto, Seattle, Arizona, Texas, Houston, Tampa, Miami Likely warm/dry-ish: San Diego, LA Dodgers, LA Angels, Atlanta So they still come up 3 short, since 5/8 of the domed stadiums are already in warm climates. Maybe you can add the marginal ones like San Francisco, Kansas City, and St. Louis...maybe Baltimore/DC as well...but it's not unheard of to have bad weather in those locations at this time of year. And then you would have a ton of teams always starting their season on a west/southwest road trip.
  8. owbc
    The Brewers don't want a two week homestand at the end of March/early April and neither does any other team, including the warm weather ones.
  9. owbc
    Agree that they are the easiest over in baseball. My main fear is that the Counsell effect was real and they are going to suffer without him around while the Cubs thrive. My second fear is that the Reds reach their potential. Opening week is a time for optimism, not fear. 88 wins and a division title is my prediction. Chourio has a huge second half to win ROY.
  10. owbc
    Say what you will about the Ned Yost era, but that guy always had his team motivated to win on Opening Day. Russell Branyan's two bombs in 2005 was probably my favorite one. Then there was a Ben Sheets complete game 2-hitter in 2007. And two bombs by Bill Hall in a blowout win in 2008 (home opener).
  11. owbc
    The norm is 2-3% each from the buy and sell side. Popular agents in hot markets make serious bank. I think a really good agent can be worth it but in my experience most of them are mediocre and more interested in closing a sale than looking out for their clients. If you don’t know what you are doing you certainly need their advice and one with a solid list of contractors, stagers, inspectors, etc can save time. But you can do most of that yourself. We’re actually in the process of buying an investment property off-market, we’re using a real estate attorney. It’s costing a few thousand bucks which is like 0.4% of the sell price. The seller is probably going to use their agent at a reduced rate like you did. It helps that my wife previously worked in the real estate space and knows what she is doing. Although this purchase was largely circumstantial, my view is that it’s a good time to pull liquid savings out of the stock market and real estate is a good place to park it for now.
  12. owbc
    I agree as well, but the key distinction is that Ippei isn't any regular employee -- Ohtani and him were literally attached at the hip to the extent that Ohtani had that clause in his contract that he could opt out if the Dodgers ever fired Ippei. Although people hide major stuff from their best friends all of the time so it's still possible that Ohtani didn't know anything until Ippei was in deep trouble. This is also only a small preview of what the proliferation of sports gambling is going to bring to major sports. It seems like the NBA is going to be the first to reach the "find out" phase based on recent news stories.
  13. owbc
    Between this and Yamamoto getting lit up in his debut, it’s a pretty rough start for the new era of Dodgers baseball. Fans of the other 29 teams will be enjoying every second of this before they right the ship and still win 105 games.
  14. owbc
    This is a pretty juicy one. The story being given right now is that Ohtani paid $4.5 million to cover Ippei's gambling debts. It's already a bad look if that's all there is to it, but there will likely be more to come.
  15. owbc
    I do think that is part of the picture but the inability of housing supply to keep up with demand means that lowered interest rates won’t completely fix this either. I agree that a recession could be triggered by housing costs, people have no choice but to pay more for housing and eventually they will cut spending elsewhere which we are starting to see.
  16. owbc
    The Fed can only do so much. The inflation report showed that shelter (housing) costs are still increasing too fast. Many sources have shown that the number of new housing units has not kept up with population growth since the Great Recession. Raising rates will not reduce housing costs and may do the opposite, since rent prices tend to increase with higher rates and new construction is hampered by higher borrowing costs. Legislators need to step in to help get more housing built, which we're starting to see at the local and state levels. But it's a slow process and can't be fixed overnight. Plus, there is a lot of resistance to the types of policy changes that could make it easier to build housing.
  17. owbc
    I'm gonna keep riding the S&P 500 for now. Feeling pretty good about this being a strong year for stocks. I expect rates to stay about the same. It feels like we really dropped the ball on housing as a country and we're only beginning to pay the price for that. The bears will be right at some point but it doesn't feel like we are at the top quite yet.
  18. owbc
    Aaand they crushed earnings. Jumped from $680 back to $740 after hours. All aboard the hype train!
  19. owbc
    We'll see how earnings goes...if NVIDIA gets down to the $600 range it's a pretty good buy opportunity. I don't see one disappointing earnings cycle being enough to kill the hype.
  20. owbc
    This was always the most logical outcome, as most people seemed to have concluded on the earlier Woodruff thread. It just made too much sense for both sides. I wouldn't be surprised to learn he got other offers, but I'm not surprised that none of them were big enough to make it worth starting a new recovery regimen with a new team Plus the new team would have to do their own due diligence on his prognosis and come away from that confident enough to beat the Brewers' offer.
  21. owbc
    https://twitter.com/zachleft/status/1758269711295668469?s=20
  22. owbc
    This seems good, it is some serious BS when a runner can’t get to a base because there is a body part in the way.
  23. owbc
    People are extremely sensitive to enshittification right now because we see it happening everywhere and Fanatics is a crappy company with a monopoly so things will surely get worse than they already are.
  24. owbc
    Exactly -- signing washed up vets is a perfect way to game the projection system, but it rarely translates to actual wins. The Cardinals underperformed projections by 20 games last season, now the projections are showing them improving 15 games from last year. It feels like insanity. There's free money to be made betting the 'under' on the Cardinals and the 'over' on the Brewers.
  25. owbc
    The universities did this to themselves by running college sports as a for-profit institution. At every inflection point they have chosen money over integrity. Non-revenue sports...as it stands right now, getting those scholarships at Big Ten schools is basically something rich families do to compete with each other. So if you get rid of those scholarships, many people will stop wasting tens of thousands of dollars (or more) training their kids to be rowers or gymnasts or whatever. The sports will survive because they are Olympic sports, but clearly there will be less investment in them. Which may be a good thing because it might open it up to more people who want to try it. As it stands right now, they are Exclusive with a capital E. I knew some rowers when I was at UW-Madison 15 years ago...they were from wealthy families in California and most of them had zero passion for rowing. They would take a taxi from the dorms to the 5 AM rowing practice that they had to do every day but hated. Obviously no average student had access to any of their fancy facilities or equipment. I don't even want to think about what it is like right now. I'm guessing most people who are parents of kids under 18 that currently play sports wouldn't have many good things to say about the state of organized sports in this country.
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