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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    The market has been patient, it assumed no tariffs until Liberation Day, now it’s assuming trade deals will happen. To be fair that is probably a safe assumption, consumers are already getting upset over Temu import fees and we haven’t even seen the empty shelves yet which may force Trump’s hand. I’m bearish anyway, especially long. Tariffs are going to go up to some extent and the global economy will realign against us to some extent. Manufacturing will not return in any appreciable numbers (although I’m sure there will be cherry picked news stories). The immigration crackdown is going to cause labor costs to go up. I’m going to stick to my conservative strategy this year, the recent bump only makes me want to sell more.
  2. owbc
    Yeah it’s hard to disagree with any of this. At the end of the day they got the ‘ship and then made a bunch of failed desperation moves to get another and got nowhere close. Blow it up and start over.
  3. owbc
    Don’t forget, the Cubs were also 17-10 last year.
  4. owbc
    Somebody needs to field the damn ball. Terrible way to send that game down the drain.
  5. owbc
    They are good but not going to run away with it. Top-3 offense with below-average pitching is a recipe for a mid-season slump. Tucker and Suzuki are legit, but beyond that? Carson Kelly has a 321 OPS+, Michael Busch is playing out of his mind, and PCA is having a breakout at age 23. CC doesn't have the Brewers' pitching lab feeding him more quality arms...the offense will regress to ~10th in MLB, the pitching will remain below average, and it will take somewhere in the 87-89 win range to finish ahead of them.
  6. owbc
    He’s fun to watch but rough around the edges. I bet it is frustrating for Reds fans. I saw quite a bit of him against Seattle last week and his play was pretty brutal for the most part. Makes the spectacular play but botches routine ones. Lacks plate discipline. Common things with young guys but enough to keep him below superstar tier for now…
  7. owbc
    It’s pretty wild that the best strategy to lower interest rates would have been to do nothing.
  8. owbc
    The most amazing part of that game is that it barely went over 3 hours despite 24 runs, 33 hits, and 12 pitchers used. First time since 2006 that a team surrendered a 10+ run inning and won.
  9. owbc
    I feel like we’ve been on the losing end of Quintana vs Burnes matchups in the past so hopefully we can flip the script when going against Burnes.
  10. owbc
    We’re 2 weeks in and the standings are getting pretty close to projections. The Cubs look pretty good, nobody else in the Central seems like a threat. I suspect the Reds will get better as the year goes on.
  11. owbc
    Good thing he’s not in AAA like someone suggested in one of the Yankees IGTs 😂
  12. owbc
    3/27 T-Mobile Park in Seattle
  13. owbc
    One more!
  14. owbc
    4 more to get to get the run differential to zero — we can do it tonight!
  15. owbc
    What’s the opposite of “buying the dip?” “Selling the bump?” Because that’s what I was doing today.
  16. owbc
    Well a liquidity crisis would certainly be a fun add to this mess. I almost snagged a house this weekend too, I expected 10-15 offers and it only got 4 (likely due to economic fears), but unfortunately one of them beat us. Now I might have to pivot and wait for a recession deal. Up to this point the whole thing was easily predictable. What comes next is more difficult to anticipate. The expectation of the administration was that other countries would capitulate but instead they are retaliating and will likely continue to come up with smart and creative ways to do so. So how does the executive branch respond to that? Double down? Back off? Does Congress get involved? Lots of unknowns going forward. I see one scenario where we end up backing off and we get out of this before any of the serious damage is permanent. If we double or triple down then we could be in big trouble.
  17. owbc
    20% off when I sold in early Feb is my target to start buying the dip. Holding in HYSA until then. Hoping for a sharp drop and a quick reversal of these policies, but if there isn’t a path to a quick reversal I might stay out of the S&P for a while. Tech is getting destroyed since the easiest path to retaliation is against the US service exports. Tim Apple didn’t really think this through.
  18. owbc
    Great win. Now I’m erasing that game from my memory.
  19. owbc
    Right, so if everyone adds 2 mph to their bat speed it is going to have a massive impact similar to how Driveline has changed MLB. Unclear of whether this can be countered with outside pitches. Bat is more narrow on the end but bat velocity is higher so it will be easier to catch up to those pitches. You also can’t pitch exclusively on one half of the plate without getting into trouble, especially since the hitters have more time to react with the new bats.
  20. owbc
    I had no expectations for winning the bullpen game so this is just a bad series sweep on the road with the x-factor of the torpedo bats. Personal opinion is that those bats are a big deal and the psychological factor can’t be overstated. The rest of the division is trash and won’t build too big of a lead on us. They just can’t let it snowball. It’s Murph’s biggest test as manager to date.
  21. owbc
    Statcast suggests the torpedo bats add 1-2 mph to bat speed. That’s a huge improvement. Everybody is going to be using these soon. Pitchers will surely respond but the potential impact to offense of nearly everybody in baseball gaining nearly a standard deviation worth of bat speed would be unbelievable. Imagine if it was the other way and all pitchers suddenly threw 1 mph faster.
  22. owbc
    Couple of grand slammies and the Brewers will be right back in this one.
  23. owbc
    I haven’t seen play this bad since the days of Bob Uecker.
  24. owbc
    Are we sure that this isn’t the ghost of Bob terrorizing this team for some unknown reason?
  25. owbc
    There are bad starts to the season and then there’s this…
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