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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    At this point, heavy snow for Milwaukee is in serious question. There is major model disagreement and it could easily go from being a major winter storm to a serious bust. Green Bay and La Crosse are now looking like better bets for heavy snow, with Madison still likely to get hit fairly hard (although less than 6" remains a decent possibility). I really don't know at this point, we're going to have to wait another 12 hours to know more.
  2. owbc
    It all depends on CC. He has Melvin's hands tied right now. As for the small market comment: If we sign him, we are a small market team for the next 6 years. We might get to brag about 1 player out of our 25 man roster, but all of our extra money will be taken up and our buying power will be extremely limited--possibly for as long as the next decade. If we let him go, we will suddenly have lots of money freed up to make a number of moves.
  3. owbc
    I would really like him as a pitching coach. Many of the Cubs' pitchers (Zambrano/Dempster in particular) give Maddux credit for their projection-defying success.
  4. owbc
    The latest model run looks like trouble for Southern Wisconsin. If it plays out like it shows right now, it should be a widespread 6-12"+ with most falling during the day on Tuesday. There are still a number of issues to be resolved: -Despite how cold it is right now, precipitation type looks to be a problem, especially in the Milwaukee area. Eventually it should all turn over to snow, though -The storm moves quite fast, which could hold down accumulations -The exact track is impossible to predict at this point. I can say with 100% certainty that someone in the Midwest is going to get nailed, but a few days ago it was the Ohio Valley and the track has been slowly shifting to the north. If it keeps going north, we could end up with mostly rain. Last year we seemed to get nailed every time, so maybe we'll luck out this time.
  5. owbc
    The pattern that has set up for late November/December so far has been quite interesting. Last year, the cold air/upper level trough was consistently to the west of us, with the storm track from the southern plains to the eastern Great Lakes. This year, the cold air has been over the Great Lakes/Eastern US while the west has been warm and dry. We are getting mostly Alberta clippers which have much less moisture than last year's storms. This pattern looks to continue for the next 2 weeks...weak weather systems every 2-4 days followed by a reenforcing shot of cold air...with each cold wave getting progressively colder. Thus, I expect December to be colder than last year but with less snowfall. The record low in Milwaukee today is -9 F, so it could be much worse... ...oh, and Madison recieved 17.3 inches of snow today in 1990.
  6. owbc
    The latest model runs confirm that possibility. Right now, I would say a wide swath of 4-8" is possible somewhere over Wisconsin on Wednesday. As of today, the Fox Valley looks to be in the bullseye, but Madison and Milwaukee could easily get another 3-5". Even worse, a nice swath of arctic air moves in after that for the end of the week. As for the awful prospect of another snowy winter, I would say that is highly unlikely at this point (statistically), but the 30-day outlook has been changed to forecast below-normal temperatures for December.
  7. owbc
    As Patrick425 says, the reason for the botched forecasts near the lake is the warm lake Michigan water temperature keeping the air temperature around 35 degrees within 10 miles of the lake. This is very predictable but was not expected to be a factor until the surface low tracked much farther north than any of the computer models predicted, which resulted in a warmer thermal profile across all of Southern Wisconsin. The NWS office in Jefferson County has picked up over 5 inches already, as they are close enough to be affected by the lake-enhanced snow bands, but not the warmer temperatures. With that being said, the temperatures should continue dropping and the winds will remain strong, so Milwaukee could still see 3-5" of snow. However, in Madison we only got 1-2" so far and we won't have the added lake effect snow tonight. Ironically, the grand totals should be near what was initially predicted 2 days ago. No worries, though, there will be another chance at a decent snowfall on Wednesday.
  8. owbc
    Once again, we are doomed by another storm taking a more northerly track at the last minute. It seemed like this happened every other week last winter. The good news is that we have avoided the really cold arctic air (for now).
  9. owbc
    The last (and only) time that I remember Milwaukee getting snowed in was the January 2-3, 1999 blizzard. The storm came on a Saturday and schools were still closed for the most part on Monday. Generally, Milwaukee has enough plows that it is impossible for the city to get snowed in, but that storm had winds in the 30-50 mph range which created the biggest snowdrifts that I have ever seen. There was also a 100+ car pileup on I-94 during this storm.
  10. owbc
    You can send some of that snow to downtown Madison. We only got about 1/2"
  11. owbc
    The forecast is still for above-normal winter temperatures, so that's what I'm sticking with. November is still running 1-2 degrees above normal due to the record highs during the first week. BTW, last winter, above normal temperatures were also predicted.
  12. owbc
    Looks like the first accumulating snow of the season will be coming through on Sunday night! Right now I'm expecting 1-3" of snow for southern Wisconsin, with the higher amounts in the Milwaukee area--definitely enough to slow down the morning commute.
  13. owbc
    I don't think so at all. Braun was definitely sold in LF. However, he isn't as quick as Hart or especially Cameron, so there are balls that both Hart and Cameron make diving attempts at which Braun doesn't get to. This is especially noticeable on balls hit over his head--he plays deep to compensate for it and it doesn't cost you much in LF, but it would in center. I think Cameron was a great CF for us last year, I don't see why people want to replace him.
  14. owbc
    Bill Hall still has no value and the Brewers should not dump him. He's not even worth a bag of balls right now...we'd have to pay half of Hall's salary to get anything back. At the same time, even if he never repeats 2006, he still could certainly return to an improved form, and he does hit lefties well and plays solid defense. I think the Brewers should use him in a Counsell role.
  15. owbc
    I hadn't even considered Halladay, but now that I think of it... 20 wins vs 22 wins 246 IP vs 223 IP 9 CG vs 4 CG 2 SHO vs 2 SHO 2.78 ERA vs 2.54 ERA 1.053 WHIP vs 1.110 ERA 206 K vs 170 K So the two most important stats for winning the award go to Lee (wins and ERA) and Halladay dominates the stats that actually determine a pitcher's effectiveness.
  16. owbc
    I agree that Hoffman is still a solid pitcher and hasn't seen much decline yet, but it will come soon and he will still be making Gagne-like money when it does happen. I would hate to see the Brewers make McClung the closer. He would probably be good at it, but it would be such a waste of a good arm. Most of the time closers pitch in games when the game is already decided (95% chance of winning or better) and they only end of pitching about 4% of the team's total innings. He's shown that he's capable of going multiple innings effectively and he was decent as a starting pitcher. I'd like to see him in either a middle relief bullpen role or as a starter, depending on how he does in spring training. I'm also not sold that he's going to be effective for a full season. He had a great September, but his 4.30 ERA and 1.4 WHIP aren't exactly excellent. He seemed to kick into an extra gear when it mattered, but I highly doubt he will have a 97 mph fastball in April and May. There's no doubt in my mind that he will improve, but just because he had a good September doesn't mean that he should suddenly be closer. Rickie Weeks had a great September 2007, that didn't help him much in 2008...Corey Hart's bad September means nothing for 2009...etc. etc.
  17. owbc
    I really hope they don't go for Hoffman. That would be a near-guaranteed Gagne-like disaster. He'll be 41 years old, his numbers appear to already be in decline, and he'll cost more than he's worth.
  18. owbc
    They won 6-0 last night. Free Culver's!!!
  19. owbc
    Disregarding 2007, the Brewers have always had at least a decent bullpen as long as I remember, even back to the 1990s. It didn't matter which guys were in there, Castro always seemed to get the most out of them. This is an excellent choice.
  20. owbc
    If this is similar to 93.1 The Lake in Madison, it's a good move. I absolutely hate Christmas music except the week of Christmas, but they wouldn't do it if people didn't listen.
  21. owbc
    I can understand why people don't like Cameron, but Hall, Kapler, and Gwynn are on a completely different level. Cameron is league average at worst, while the other three are at or below replacement level. I think the issue is that people are not differentiating between a center fielder and the corner outfield positions. Cameron's numbers were decent for CF, but would actually be bad/mediocre if he was in LF or RF. It's rare to find a player like Cameron who was at a 30+ HR pace, plays solid defense, and has a decent OBP. If you don't believe me, look at the free agent list and name a better option.
  22. owbc
    Bill Hall is my favorite player, but he was brutal in center field. I'm in favor of picking up this option. We're not resigning CC and most likely not Sheets either, so we may as well use the money on players who will contribute. Cameron didn't have a great year and he's nothing exceptional, but he's way better than any of the possible replacement options.
  23. owbc
    Dillon seems like a legitimate hitter to me, but not for a playoff team like the Brewers. He doesn't have any exceptional talents but definitely could contribute at the major league level for a bottom/mid level team.
  24. owbc
    I don't have a problem with the Marquee pricing. About half the Brewers fans at the games (the season ticket holders) are not paying the high prices. The rest represents the Brewers admitting that Cubs fans will frequent the games, so if they have to reach a certain bottom line at the end of the year, they may as well get as much money from the Cubs fans as they can. There was a time about 4-5 years ago that they left the Tuesday $6 terrace deal on during the Cubs series. I always wondered what they were thinking when that policy was enacted, since I went to a Cubs/Brewers game for $6 and was surrounded by Cubs fans. There are ways to discourage Cubs fans from going to the games such as only selling the Cubs tickets in 4-packs with some Pirates/Nationals games thrown in there. The Brewers choose the higher price route, which they can get away with since the Brewers have been so popular that the Pirates/Nationals games are going to draw 35,000 anyway.
  25. owbc
    So far it's a relatively uneventful night here. One very intoxicated girl got arrested, but generally things have been calm. Word from State St. is that the OAR concert is uncomfortably crowded.
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