ClosetBrewerFan

What made you select Oglivie higher than Jenkins? Seems like Jenkins has a slight edge if you consider WAR and bigger edge if you use OPS. Just curious what your reasoning is.

Ahh, Spring training is right around the corner. Looking forward to the "I'm in the best condition of my career!" statements from players.

If I had to predict the roster today, this is what I would go with as well. Except likely Brousseau over Toro/Miller. If they can find a taker for Huira, then Toro/Miller (maybe Turang) would battle for that last spot.

Anderson is the guy I was hoping they would sign. A team option would have been nice but I'm very happy with this low risk signing. I think he likely starts at 3b, but I doubt he is guaranteed a job. I would expect his OPS to be closer to 750 rather than the what he did in the last two injury riddled years, assuming he stays healthy. If not, this is a low risk sign and we have additional depth (Turang). We had very little depth and were planning to rely on a lot of rookies. Anderson gives us some coverage at 3b and RF in case things dont go well as we hope.

I knew Moore had good defense but this is another level. If he can continue to hit, he is going to skyrocket up our prospect lists.

I'd add Tristan Lutz to the list. Probably his last shot to prove it with the Brewers since he will be a free agent after the season. His star has faded but he still has a shot as a 4th/5th OF that can mash LH pitching. Strong OF arm. He has value and could be useful to complement all the LH OFs this team has.

I rarely click on player interviews because they usually tell you nothing. I'm glad Winker is excited to go to Milwaukee and he said all the right things, but wow, he did not really answer any of the questions. They spoke more about basketball than baseball.

I understand the A's wanted a speedy OF, but its not like the Brewers other 4 ML ready OFs were slow. Chourio, Frelick, Weimer, and Mitchell all have great speed and above average defense. I think I would have traded any one of those guys for Contreras (Chuorio would have been tough) to get a already ML C who can hit like Contreras is rare. FWIW, MLB updated their top 30 prospects. Yeager did not slot (Castaneda slid into the top 30). A's prospects received are Muller (#5), Ruiz (6), Tarnok (11), Salinas (26). So that's quite the haul.

One word, Wow. This is a really surprising trade and the fact Arnold got two additional pitchers back all for Ruiz is crazy. I think Payamps may have some limited value. He has some extreme reverse splits the last couple of years. But he gave up a lot of hits and had fairly low K rate, Yeager looks really intriguing but needs to get some control. But hard to complain we got both of them and Contreras for Ruiz!

Wong also had $5M of last year's $7M salary deferred until 2023/2024. Not sure who is on the hook for that but that could be some potential cost savings if Seattle is picking that up. I think the Brewers did well here considering most of us expected they were just going to non-tender Wong. Based on that low bar, it would be hard to see the Brewers picking up a free agent of Winker's value for the $8M they saved. That does not include getting Toro as well. Trying to see a comp for Winker out of the existing free agents and the best I could find is Gallo. Could we pickup Gallo as a rebound candidate for a $8M 1year deal? Best prediction I could find is from the Athletic: 1yr, $13M

I see this as a huge boom or bust trade, but still low risk. Winker was not good last year but was fantastic in Cincinnati. If he could rebound, he could be the best cleanup hitter we have had since Prince (at least vs RHs). If he repeats last year, its only for a 1 year deal and he was at least an average hitter last year (based on OPS+) He's probably just a platoon bat and should only play DH. I'd say he replaces Singleton on the roster (though he was unlikely to make it anyways). I compare Toro to Cam Devanney. Same age, both high OBP guys, but different path to the majors. Cam was still in college when Toro first made it to the majors. Toro had better numbers at a younger age than Cam. I'd give the edge defensively to Cam but Toro with a better potential bat. Still, Toro is a pretty good defensive 3b from what I can tell. Not exactly the blockbuster deal we are all waiting for, but this could be really meaningful if Winker rebounds. Winker in Am Fam field will be interesting to watch. This is the type of low risk, high reward type move the Brewers need to make. I think they still target a free agent 3b yet. And this trade opens up a spot for that. Someone like Longoria or Turner on a short term deal or maybe a hope for a rebound out of Anderson. Toro would likely block Turang in that case as the utility IF; At least in the beginning of the season.

The Singleton selection is odd. He is out of options, so if he does not make the OD roster he will have to be outrighted. He has been outrighted before so he can refuse a minor league assignment and become a free agent. It just seems like he does not fit well on a team with Tellez, Yelich, and Hiura already on the roster as they all are better against RHs and play overlapping positions. IF he was a masher against LH pitchers he will fit perfectly as a platoon mate at 1b/LF/DH. Maybe this is an indication of some big shakeup on the roster. Just seems like this is a wasted roster spot.

The Singleton selection is odd. He is out of options, so if he does not make the OD roster he will have to be outrighted. He has been outrighted before so he can refuse a minor league assignment and become a free agent. It just seems like he does not fit well on a team with Tellez, Yelich, and Hiura already on the roster as they all are better against RHs and play overlapping positions. IF he was a masher against LH pitchers he will fit perfectly as a platoon mate at 1b/LF/DH. Maybe this is an indication of some big shakeup on the roster. Just seems like this is a wasted roster spot.

I agree that all of the names would be nice adds, but I think the Brewers will be closer to the dumpster in their free agent diving. Someone in the mold of Brett Anderson. A 1yr $5M contract in a prove it type year. A Ryan Yarbrough just got DFAd and would not cost much, but I think they could do better than that.

I agree that all of the names would be nice adds, but I think the Brewers will be closer to the dumpster in their free agent diving. Someone in the mold of Brett Anderson. A 1yr $5M contract in a prove it type year. A Ryan Yarbrough just got DFAd and would not cost much, but I think they could do better than that.

Singleton provides some insurance in case the Brewers find a taker for Tellez in order to reduce payroll. Other than that I think he is a AAAA type player. Who knows, maybe they strike gold with him, but I think its highly unlikely. I'm fairly confident Devanney will sneak through the draft but will be bummed if he gets picked. I see him as a solid Utility player as a floor with an average starting 3B at peak. That has a lot of value.

Singleton provides some insurance in case the Brewers find a taker for Tellez in order to reduce payroll. Other than that I think he is a AAAA type player. Who knows, maybe they strike gold with him, but I think its highly unlikely. I'm fairly confident Devanney will sneak through the draft but will be bummed if he gets picked. I see him as a solid Utility player as a floor with an average starting 3B at peak. That has a lot of value.

Its kind of amazing he was a decent defensive CF, considering his body type and lifestyle. He was a big guy with a big appetite. My memory thinks of him as a Vogelbach body type but looking at pictures from his prime, he was pretty sveldt. Interesting that he even played some infield in his early days. He never had a season with an OPS above 900, even with 45 home runs. But still was an incredibly productive player in his prime. He had a lot of rough seasons as well, which is reflected in his career 772 OPS. Thanks for the trip down memory lane!

Its kind of amazing he was a decent defensive CF, considering his body type and lifestyle. He was a big guy with a big appetite. My memory thinks of him as a Vogelbach body type but looking at pictures from his prime, he was pretty sveldt. Interesting that he even played some infield in his early days. He never had a season with an OPS above 900, even with 45 home runs. But still was an incredibly productive player in his prime. He had a lot of rough seasons as well, which is reflected in his career 772 OPS. Thanks for the trip down memory lane!

Should be noted that the Brewers will have at least five open spots to protect players, so the three that most people are suggesting should be no issue to protect. The roster is currently full at 40 with one man on the 60 day IL. They have five players who will be free agents and I expect they will decline Wong's club option but select Boxberger's very reasonable $3M club option. There are a couple non-tender candidates (Suter, Gustave) plus some players they could clear (Kelley, J.Davis, Topa) so there really is no reason to not at least protect three and possible one or two more. I think it will be just three as the Brewers like 40 man roster flexibility. If Frelick gets called up this year, I would expect he would take Davis's spot so that wont affect the rule 5 protection. Cant imagine Davis making it through the offseason with Frelick, Ruiz, Mitchell, and Wiemer all waiting in the wings to fill outfield spots. This is the most OF depth the Brewers have had as far as I can imagine (counting Chourio, Mendez, Hedbert, Avina, Castillo, Lutz, etc)

Should be noted that the Brewers will have at least five open spots to protect players, so the three that most people are suggesting should be no issue to protect. The roster is currently full at 40 with one man on the 60 day IL. They have five players who will be free agents and I expect they will decline Wong's club option but select Boxberger's very reasonable $3M club option. There are a couple non-tender candidates (Suter, Gustave) plus some players they could clear (Kelley, J.Davis, Topa) so there really is no reason to not at least protect three and possible one or two more. I think it will be just three as the Brewers like 40 man roster flexibility. If Frelick gets called up this year, I would expect he would take Davis's spot so that wont affect the rule 5 protection. Cant imagine Davis making it through the offseason with Frelick, Ruiz, Mitchell, and Wiemer all waiting in the wings to fill outfield spots. This is the most OF depth the Brewers have had as far as I can imagine (counting Chourio, Mendez, Hedbert, Avina, Castillo, Lutz, etc)

I agree with the three to protect as well as the other four as outside shots. Cam went from long shot to a near lock with his meteoric rise thru the system. I also think Erceg and Devanney have outside shots as well, though probably a bit lower than the four you mentioned. Devanney could fill a utility role with some team and Erceg's heater may be tempting for team to pick. Lutz has worked his way back into the conversation but still quite a longshot. His strikeout numbers are still too high.

I agree with the three to protect as well as the other four as outside shots. Cam went from long shot to a near lock with his meteoric rise thru the system. I also think Erceg and Devanney have outside shots as well, though probably a bit lower than the four you mentioned. Devanney could fill a utility role with some team and Erceg's heater may be tempting for team to pick. Lutz has worked his way back into the conversation but still quite a longshot. His strikeout numbers are still too high.

As said above, Reetz had an opt out clause which is why he was placed on the 40 man roster and then the poor performance at AAA is what got him off the roster. This makes a lot more sense now. They can still keep him if he clears waivers, which is what the Brewers were probably hoping for. Link from MLB trade rumors: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/brewers-designate-jakson-reetz-for-assignment.html As noted in the article, the Brewers now have only two healthy catchers on the 40 man roster (Narvaez and Jackson on the IL). I dont see that as a huge issue, They could add Severino back if they needed a backup before Narvaez is ready. The 40 man roster is getting pretty full though. There are fewer obvious candidates they could drop to make room for somebody.

This is the fourth and last post of my review of the Brewers past 20 drafts. Check out my previous post for years 2021 - 2016, years 2008 - 2015, and for years 2002 - 2007. What was the best draft of the last 20 years? That is not easy to judge since some of those players are still playing and could continue to improve and put up impressive stats. I’m using career WAR as one way to evaluate the players. Is a draft successful if only one or two stars make it? The team still has to fill out a roster and the Brewers more than most teams need to rely on the draft to keep their payroll low. So is quantity better than quality? Below is a summary of these past 20 drafts: Summary 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Totals ML All Star 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 16 ML Regular 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 13 ML Role Player 2 3 0 1 1 3 3 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 21 ML Callup 1 2 2 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 2 1 4 2 2 2 0 1 0 0 36 Total ML Players 6 6 4 6 3 7 6 8 5 7 6 4 5 3 4 3 2 1 0 0 86 Still in Minors 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 11 12 16 5 16 72 Career WAR 32.3 17.5 58.6 80.9 8.5 18.3 30.5 33.4 8.3 -0.6 20 7.3 11.6 6.5 9.7 0.7 1.9 -0.2 0 0 345.2 Draft Order 7 2 5 5 16 14 16 26 14 12 27 No 1st (17) 12 15 5 9 21 26 20 15 - Supplemental picks 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 4 3 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 15 Total Picks 42 50 50 49 50 46 54 53 50 51 42 40 41 41 41 41 41 39 5 21 847 % made it to bigs 14.3% 12.0% 8.0% 12.2% 6.0% 15.2% 11.1% 15.1% 10.0% 13.7% 14.3% 10.0% 12.2% 7.3% 9.8% 7.3% 4.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% If you like quantity, it's hard to beat 2009. Mike Fiers, Kris Davis, Scooter Gennett, and Caleb Thielbar round out selections who made regular contributions in the majors. Four other players made the majors as well. The 2004 draft was also excellent. Gallardo and Cain headlined this draft that had a total career WAR of 58.6. There was little behind these two picks though. However, I am going to go with the 2005 draft. In terms of career WAR its hard to beat with Braun and Brantley making up the brunt of the 80+ career WAR. Four other players made the majors with Braddock at least filling a role for a couple of years. This is a good combination of MLB success as well as quantity of major leaguers. Can another draft beat out the 2005 draft? Two All stars and four other major leaguers is a tall order. As for pure success, the 2014 draft had Woodruff and 2016 had Burnes. These two should be raking in WAR for years to come, but it does not look like any other player from those drafts could be all stars. I think the 2018 draft has some potential. Rasmussen and Ashby are both good pitchers on the rise. It would not surprise me at all if they became all stars at some point. Turang, Reese Olson, Jarvis, K. Howell, and Joe Gray all have talent to potentially make the majors some day. Only time will tell. As for the opposite end of the spectrum, only 3 out of the 50 picks in 2006 made the majors and they had a career WAR of 8.5. The worst career WAR (not including recent drafts) was 2011 in which 7 players made the majors but had a combined career WAR of -0.6. Maybe Jorge Lopez and Nick Ramirez can continue to put up good numbers to get it to a positive number someday. Other interesting things I found during this study. There was almost always one all star out of each draft. From 2016 - 2002, only two drafts had no all stars. Three drafts produced two all stars each. That’s way more than I would have guessed. Granted an "all star" is somewhat dubious way of measuring talent, but its still noteworthy. Each draft produced at least 3 and as many as 8 major leaguers. There were a lot more players drafted back then, though very few players beyond the 20th round made it (8 to be exact). Mike Fiers and Brent Suter were the only ones of note. It explains why MLB has decided to trim the draft down to 20 rounds now. In the past 20 years, 847 players were drafted and 86 made the majors (10%). I'll admit this is a misleading number since this includes players who were not signed (I did not track how many), but I still consider those as lost opportunities by the Brewers. It also includes a lot of late round picks (20-50) and the MLB has already trimmed that down to 20. So going forward, the odds should look better, but still will be difficult. There are 72 more players in the minors, so that number could go up yet. Regardless, those are long odds for a newly drafted player to deal with. We all have big hopes for the Brewers draft class but in reality, its tough for them to even get to the majors, let alone succeed there. Thanks for taking the time to read through my blog ramblings. Leave a comment if you found this interesting or have feedback for me.