colbyjack

Arnett has already pitched over 100 innings, 108 I think. If he's pitching in WI it will probably be out of the pen. I don't see him starting. I think for this exact reason there's a good chance Arnett spends significant time in Helena piggy-backing to make sure his arm is brought along slowly. I don't think it's is a given that any of the players debut with the Timber Rattlers. Kentrail Davis is probably going to take a while to sign, possibly as long as the August 15th deadline. Jon Pokorny would be the one player I think could get moved up fairly quickly, but I don't think we will see a series of moves to accommodate the draft picks. It's not like the team drafted 84 pitchers like they did last year, so it should be easier to make everyone fit on the two rookie clubs. If it weren't for Lawrie (unless he gets moved up to BC, which isn't likely since he isn't even playing right now), I would say there would be a good chance Mike Brownstein would be moved up to Wisconsin. Otherwise I think the Helena lineup could be fairly college heavy this year with him, Prince, Khris Davis, Richardson (who could go to Arizona), Stang and Dalton, and possibly Krieger, Fatse and Sizemore as well depending on who ends up signing from the later round guys.

Just so you know, Del Howell doesn't go by Paul. Tough luck for Sampson. I have spoken with players and parents about situations like that, and it is hard not to be upset about it. That's a lot of money, but it also serves as a reality check for players, as they shouldn't get caught up too much playing the numbers games with teams. He ended up falling to the 4th round to the Padres, so he should still get good money, but possibly close to half of what he originally agreed upon with the Brewers.

I'm having a hard time getting a read on Khris Davis. He's obviously got some power since he led Fullerton in homers, but colby said he had a big arm in right, while Bryan Smith said he didn't have the arm for right. BA says he has a quick bat and plays above his average tools, but colby says he has a long swing and and is a very good athlete with good speed. Just because he has a long swing doesn't mean it isn't quick. He does have good bat speed, but he has a tendency to swing for the fences. He did a great job changing his approach this year, especially with two strikes (as I noted in my writeup). I got to see him play 3-5 times this spring, and watching him you could tell he had a very different approach. As for his arm, I need to change my write up, because he does have a bad arm and it caused him to be used as a DH. He has work on his arm strength and accurary, but he's a LF at the next level.

I would imagine Decker made it clear he intends to return next year to play football since his season was cut short last fall due to injury. I would be surprised if Minnesota is able to sign him there.

I would guess the same thing, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers plan to give him higher than slot at that selection to get him in the fold.

Scooter Gennett's gonna be a tough sign. He entered the year as a potential sandwich rounder. He has one of the best pure bats available this year, but slumped a little at the plate this spring and had some scouts question him due to his smallish stature and probable need to move to 2B. I hope the Brewers get this kid signed, as he was one of my favorite high schoolers. I was surprised to see Del Howell fall as far as he did. He was another one that was at the team's pre-draft last Saturday.

Connor Glassey of BA offers his best available list: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1140

I'm not sure if this was mentioned yet, but in Dennis Punzel's story out of Madison, he shared some quotes from Doug Melvin expressing his frustration with how signability was becoming a bigger and bigger problem for scouts trying to gauge who are the best players vs. who are the best players willing to sign and eager to begin their professional careers. It does make situations like Arnett and Walla more appealing since both have pretty much come out and said that they intend to sign and sign fairly quickly, which of course endears them more to the fans. I think instituting some kind of slotting system for the draft will be made a greater priority the next time the CBA is up, but it's going to be hard to get the right people interested while also getting the player's union to sign off on this (while the player's union isn't necessarily involved with players not on 40-man rosters, they still aren't going to give up anything without getting something back in return).

Max > Chuck?

I just checked the list of players selected, and figured I would share the players I saw in attendance at the pre-draft that went elsewhere: Sandwich round (three college LHP): Aaron Miller, #36 to the Dodgers Mike Belfiore, #45 to the D-Backs Matt Bashore, #46 to the Twins The Brewers picked Heckathorn at #47, so this pick could have been different had either lefty Belfiore or Bashore fell an extra spot or two. Second round: Blake Smith, #56 to the Dodgers Robert Stock, $67 to the Cardinals (as noted, as a catcher) One interesting note, Texas A&M RHP Alex Wilson, one player identified more by fans as a good fit for the Brewers went three picks after the team took Walla & Garfield back-to-back in the 2nd. Third round: Bryan Morgado, #102 to the White Sox This pick was made three ahead of Josh Prince.

After day one, the Brewers have drafted two big pitchers, two big bats, and a promising catcher and shortstop, with a four to two college to high school ratio. That's a very nice first day haul. I'm pretty excited about this draft after writing the profiles in the official pick/signing thread.

I confirmed that Arnett was there earlier. I didn't see Heckathorn, but I didn't stick around to see each and every pitcher toss. He wasn't among the group of college arms that were all huddled together in left field for the first half of the workout. I'll provide the entire list after the draft has been completed in full, again, out of respect for the Brewers scouting dep't.

Mauer still got $5 million+ to sign, which at the time was a draft bonus record, so it's not like the Twins were financially savvy making that pick (and he wasn't that big of a stretch at #1). I understand your overall point though. Number one overall picks that have been pitchers in particular haven't had much luck.

Prince was one of the top prospects in the NWL last year, and a pleasure to watch in the NWL all-star game. I'll add some links to him in his player profile in the official pick/signing thread, but he's a toolsy college shortstop that has good size, some power, a good arm, good range and very good speed.

Robert Stock was one of the players at the Brewers pre-draft, and they were working him out as a catcher. I was pretty surprised to see him. Davis isn't fat, and he isn't a low-upside pick. He's a pretty promising offensive performer that is built unusually short and thick...but definitely not fat. He has good bat speed as X noted and has 20 HR power and enough speed to steal 30 bases and leg out both doubles and triples. He has been somewhat bothered by injuries during his career, and he isn't really considered a CF. I have mentioned this before, but he's very similar to a LH hitting version of Shannon Stewart. I was never a big fan of Harold Reynolds when he was with ESPN, and he certainly didn't do much justice of the MLB Network's draft coverage. They didn't take advantage of Jim Callis as much as they should have, as he should have been sitting at that front table. I'm not sure who the MLB scouting guy was, but he didn't add much value, and I'm surprised how little John Hart added as well. The host interviewed me when he was with CSTV, and he clearly is paid to set up the personalities than adding anything original. It could be a problem to have the table located in the middle of the floor with all of the teams, representatives and players sitting within ear-shot of the commentary. Jim Callis and Keith Law definitely need to be a bigger part of this, as do my own associates at PGX: Allan Simpson and David Rawnsley. I wish I could share why members from PG weren't invited to participate.

Davis is somewhat of a surprising pick. He's a Boras client, and was expected to go mid-first round entering the spring as one of the more polished offensive players available. He had a good, not great spring, and has a propensity to swing and miss at breaking stuff, particularly low and away. He was the best hitter for Team USA last summer before having his summer cut short due to a wrist injury IIRC. He was one of my favorite picks coming out of high school two years ago (he's draft eligible as a true sophomore), but had somewhat of a down senior year after being involved in a car accident. He's got good, not great pop, and is somewhat of a 'tweener in that he doesn't have the ideal arm strength or instincts for center and doesn't have prototypical power for left. He used to draw Kirby Puckett comparisons for his shorter yet stocky body, but I think he's more similar to a LH hitting version of Shannon Stewart. I'm assuming the team is confident they can sign him if they took him so high, but I kind of figured that he may opt to return for his junior year to re-assert himself as a mid-first-rounder. Heckthorn, like Arnett, is a horse, built tall and strong with pretty good stuff. So far I'm encouraged with the team's picks, as I think it's clear they intended to take more polished players early. And yes, Arnett was at the team's pre-draft workout. Tip of the cap to X for calling that one again, the third in four years if you include Lawrie and Braun.

I'm guessing it was Jacob Turner.

I'm hearing that Mike Leake goes to the Royals at #12 unless a prep player that they don't expect to fall that far does slide further than expected. No clue who that prep player is, but that bucks most people's mock drafts that has the Royals taking Grant Green or a catcher.

By the way, here's a couple of stories I wrote about Eric Arnett and Marc Krauss (as well as Minnesota's Derek McCallum) for those interested given the discussion: Eric Arnett Marc Krauss & Derek McCallum If you couldn't tell, I, like X, believe if Arnett's future as a starter, and feel Marc Krauss' power surge should be viewed as a positive sign as good things to come.

I'm not sure if my mock draft is going to get up today, since I noticed they bumped David Rawnsley's final projection to the top of PGX's homepage. I wanted to copy and paste it though so my work was actually available before the draft kicks off, so here that is: --------------------------------------------- Final Draft Projection by Patrick Ebert Here is my final stab at how the first round of the draft will shake out. Last year by this time I was fairly confident with how the top 10 picks would shake out, nailing the first six selections overall. That isn't the case this year, as the Padres pick at number three could very well set off a fairly significant chain reaction of which teams take which players. Similar to Tanner Scheppers from a year ago, I think Kyle Gibson may fall out of the first round after being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right forearm. Fortunately for Gibson it would appear as though six weeks of rest will help take care of the problem, meaning a team may be more willing to take him knowing they can still see him pitch a few times before the August 15th signing deadline, but the timing is bad regardless of the circumstances. 1. Washington Nationals - Stephen Strasburg Alright, this pick has been in stone for quite some time, but what if the Nationals used that to their advantage and took Ackley first hoping to catch the teams that select from two through nine off-guard? Bad idea? Absolutely, but mock drafts are supposed to be fun, for someone. 2. Seattle Mariners - Dustin Ackley There were some rumors that the Mariners were considering a different player with less than a week leading up to draft day, but I'm not buying that. It may take until August 15th to sign Ackley, but the deal will get done. 3. San Diego Padres - Donovan Tate As noted above, this pick is going to dictate how most of the next 10-15 picks after this fall into place. The Padres are still showing a lot of interest in Tate, although I wouldn't be surprised to see them pluck Tyler Matzek here as he finished his season strong. 4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Aaron Crow With Kyle Gibson suffering a stress fracture, the Pirates will take Crow at least roughly knowing the kind of money it will take to get him in the fold. They also hope to have a little better luck with one of their first-round pitchers. 5. Baltimore Orioles - Zack Wheeler This is another possible destination for Matzek, or Crow for that matter, but word has the Orioles hot on Wheeler's trail for the last month-plus. The O's have quite a few exciting power arms to look forward to, and Wheeler will give them another one to look forward to a year or two behind the likes of Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman. 6. San Francisco Giants - Tyler Matzek Between Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, the Giants have had some pretty good fortune developing power arms, and may have a few more on the way in Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson. They certainly aren't opposed to taking prep pitchers early, and would be thrilled to have Matzek fall here. 7. Atlanta Braves - Alex White If either Wheeler or Matzek were to fall here, I would guess one of them would quickly become the Braves pick. Don't be convinced that Wheeler would be their first pick just because he pitches in their backyard, as Matzek was on their team in Jupiter last fall. The Braves have also been connected to Alex White, who re-asserted his status as a top 10 pick last Saturday with a dominating performance against East Carolina in the Super Regionals. 8. Cincinnati Reds - Tanner Scheppers I haven't seen or heard the Reds connected to too many players, other than knowing they made sure to catch both Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers during their independent league stints. The team needs to continue to add arms to their system after graduating a few of their best to the big leagues. 9. Detroit Tigers - Jacob Turner Similar to having Cameron Maybin ('05), Andrew Miller ('06) and Rick Porcello ('07) fall in their laps, the Tigers will be ready to pounce on Turner if he makes it this far. 10. Washington Nationals - Chad Jenkins Jenkins and Drew Storen were in Washington recently for a workout, and the Nationals have stated that they intend to take two arms with their top two picks, looking to get them up to the big-leagues fairly quickly to join young hurler Jordan Zimmerman. I've also heard Grant Green's and Mike Trout's names associated with the Nats if they do go with a bat. 11. Colorado Rockies - Mike Minor Minor could go as high as third overall to the Padres, and some are convinced he goes in the top 10 (Reds?) somewhere, somehow. I'm projecting he slides just past the top 10, with the Rockies ready to take him here. He fits the profile of the pitchers they like to take in the first round similar to Jeff Francis and Greg Reynolds in that he is known more for his command and three pitch repertoire than he is for his raw stuff. 12. Kansas City Royals - Grant Green After opening the year as most people's number two draft-eligible prospect, Green has fallen this spring after not hitting for much power and showing shaky defense at the shortstop position. The Royals once again are prepared to sign a Scott Boras-advised player, which would mark the fourth time in four years they have done so. 13. Oakland Athletics - A.J. Pollock I have heard players such as Tim Wheeler, Mike Leake and Mike Minor being thrown out as possibilities that could be selected by the A's. I think Pollock makes the most sense as a versatile player (he could be moved back to the infield) that has put up impressive numbers throughout his college career and also has proved that he can swing a wood bat (he hit .377 on the Cape last summer). 14. Texas Rangers - Shelby Miller Would the Rangers sprint up to the so-called podium if Shelby Miller made it this far? Matthew Purke would also make sense for the Rangers if they are willing to meet his bonus demands. 15. Cleveland Indians - Eric Arnett While teams like the A's and Blue Jays are the first ones thrown out when mentioning teams that almost exclusively draft college players, the Indians also heavily lean that way. They're said to be targeting college arms, with Arnett, Storen, Leake, Jenkins, Heckathorn and Brothers being among the more likely candidates. 16. Arizona Diamondbacks - Mike Leake The D-Backs like the Indians would like to get a college arm with one of their two consecutive picks, and Leake makes way too much sense for them not to take him. Leake should go somewhere in the 13-19 range. 17. Arizona Diamondbacks - Bobby Borchering After getting an arm with one of their two back-to-back picks, the D-Backs likely are going to snatch up one of the better hitters available in the draft, with Borchering looking like the next-best bat. Mike Trout could also be in the mix for this pick. 18. Florida Marlins - Drew Storen Throw the Marlins into the group of teams targeting college arms with this pick. They have been scouting Arnett, and you could flip-flop this selection and the Nationals pick at #10 should they go with Storen. 19. St. Louis Cardinals - Rex Brothers In a recurring theme, the Cardinals supposedly are looking at a handful of college arms, with a few lefties in the mix. Brothers fits the mold of pitchers the Cardinals have selected in recent years, with a power arm and questions about whether his future lies in the bullpen or as a starter. 20. Toronto Blue Jays - Chad James While the Blue Jays are a team that usually target college players early, they have been hot on the trail of Chad James all spring, and seem prepared to take him at this selection. Brothers is also high on their on their list, as are Drew Storen and Chad Jenkins should any of them make it this far. 21. Houston Astros - Mike Trout This is one pick I don't feel really good about. First of all, I keeping hearing how many teams are impressed with Mike Trout, yet I have him falling to the 21st pick. Secondly, the Astros are believed to be interested in outfielders, but haven't been connected to Trout. If Trout were to make it here, he would make a lot of sense for a team that is looking to add as much talent to their system as possible. 22. Minnesota Twins - Everett Williams Could the Twins really take another prep outfielder? Why not? It's not like Denard Span stopped them from taking Ben Revere, and Revere didn't stop them from taking Aaron Hicks. Williams has excellent value at this spot, and offers the team yet another exciting five-tool talent. 23. Chicago White Sox - Raymond Fuentes The White Sox are always good for a surprise, and I don't think GM values speed as much as Kenny Williams does. The White Sox are linked to most of the athletic outfielders that are projected to go somewhere in this range, but Fuentes gets the nod for his game-changing speed. 24. Los Angeles Angels - Matthew Purke The Angels lost out on both Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia this offseason...alright that has little to do with who they'll take on draft day, but they are one of the teams out there that isn't afraid in taking a player that is perceived to be a more difficult sign. Purke offers incredible value at this spot as based on talent he's a top 10 pick. 25. Los Angeles Angels - Matt Hobgood Southern California offers quite a few players that could be in the Angels crosshairs with these picks, including Hobgood, Matt Davidson, Max Stassi and Jiovanni Mier. They have had a knack developing power arms from within, and know the best way to do so is to stockpile them and hope a few stick. 26. Milwaukee Brewers - Matt Davidson If Eric Arnett someway, somehow falls this far he will probably be the pick. Other players in the mix for this pick include Jiovanni Mier and Max Stassi, but the Brewers have a history of selecting players with the highest offensive upside, and that's Davidson here. 27. Seattle Mariners - Tim Wheeler The Mariners may add a pair of bats with their first two picks if the draft shakes out this way. There are quite a few outfielders, particularly from the college ranks, that could be selected here, from Wheeler to Brett Jackson to Jared Mitchell. 28. Boston Red Sox - Max Stassi Should someone like Matthew Purke or even Grant Green fall this far, this is where they are most likely to stop falling. Both the Red Sox and the Yankees are prepared to take such a player, like they have been the past several years. If that doesn't happen, Stassi is known to be high on the Red Sox wish list. 29. New York Yankees - Kyle Gibson As noted, the Yankees may be poised to take a player that could be viewed as more of a risk financially. Gibson also poses a risk physically, and they may opt for a more safe pick since they will not receive compensation if they don't sign this pick. The Yankees have the resources to be patient following Gibson this summer. 30. Tampa Bay Rays - Wil Myers I have a feeling that Myers' bat will cause him to be selected earlier than this, possibly as high as 10th to the Nationals or 12th to the Royals. Even if Myers isn't the pick, the Rays are thought to be keyed in a few prep catchers that could be available late in the first round. 31. Chicago Cubs - Brett Jackson The Cubs are among the teams that are known to be hot for the athletic group of outfielders available. From Wheeler to Jackson to Pollock to Mitchell, they may have a few to choose from should a few of them slide further than expected. 32. Colorado Rockies - Tony Sanchez Chalk up Sanchez as yet another player I don't necessarily feel will make it this far, as catchers in particular are more likely to get snatched up earlier than other positional players. And while the first round started off with a heavy run on pitchers, it could very well end with a heavy run on bats.

X, you have had some amazing luck getting your guys to the Brewers. I hope that continues tomorrow with your Arnett projection. I'm not going to go six deep, since that may be a little too revealing, but in my mock draft that I just submitted to PGX I had the Brewers taking Matt Davidson. Monster is also a favorite of mine. Scouts have had a hard time getting a good look at him this spring, but he was really good last fall in Jupiter, throwing in the lost-90s with very good sink.

I'm happy to hear that they will continue to be active with their efforts in Latin America. Thanks for sharing that. I may end up moving this thread to the minor league forum where we have an old thread dedicated to the international signing period.

I'm the first to admit that I haven't provided the same amount of coverage as I have in past years. My life is already stretched pretty thin right now, and honestly I'm looking forward to the end of the week when the draft is behind us. My wife and I welcomed our second child into the world in mid-April, so as you can imagine that alone has taken up a lot of our time, and that's the main thing that prevented me from writing my annual draft preview story. Next spring we already have another trip to Nashville planned, and I hope to continue the development of my 5 Tool Talk site September through December. I typically do have a column at PGX, where most of my features can still be found, that covers my initial impressions on the draft. I usually focus on the teams that had strong drafts and which players rose/fell the farthest. Here's a link to all of my columns and blog entires: http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/columnists/patrickebert/Archives.aspx I hope by either tomorrow or Tuesday to have my final mock draft up as well.

I'll reveal some of the names after the draft, not on Monday though. The draft starts Tuesday and runs through Thursday.

The Brewers pre-draft workout was held earlier today. I went and had lunch at Fridays and took in the action for a couple of hours. Out of respect for the Brewers scouting department, I am not going to say which players were there that I recognized, but I will say there's a good chance the team targets college pitching early.