I don't think the Brewers were playing 4-D chess, and we probably don't need to relitigate the whole Rule 5 thread over again, but they made a judgement (which was heavily criticized) not to protect him. Could've just been they liked other pitchers in the system more than him, or it was just a terrible gamble. Unlikely they were utterly convinced that he'd fail as an MLB pitcher. He largely was excellent last year, but maybe that was an aberration, or maybe he's just having a rough couple games and will bounce back.