Raw Biz

I'm trying not to examine this based on statistical production, but appx. talent level instead. I don't think Loney compares well as a hitter to Gamel. The only way he compares well is that he's not a very good hitter for a 1B, and that's what people have already started to label Gamel. Take a look at Loney's MiLB numbers -- even in the offense-crazy western PCL he didn't really hit home runs with any regularity. These guys are just not good comparisons imo. I can't guarantee that Gamel will prove his doubters wrong, but I think it's better to examine him from a scouting standpoint than a statistical one at this point. Even if you go with stats, Loney's MiLB career doesn't even come close to Gamel's. The funny thing, to me, on the stat-based Gamel examinations, is that two seasons of a throwaway number of PAs is what has everyone concerned (beyond assumptions about his character). If the Brewers had never given Mat cups of coffee in 2010 & '11, you're looking at a guy with a MLB career OPS of about .760, and who the casual fan wouldn't assume "can't hit big-league pitching". But an unproductive 15 PAs in '10, & 26 PAs in '11 so greatly affect the small sample that is Gamel's MLB career up to now, that instead people are convinced this is just another failed prospect we're talking about here. In the closest thing he's ever had to meaningful big-league playing time, Gamel has already basically matched Loney, and that was two full seasons ago. Mat's a better hitter now than he was in '09, and as he continues to develop & display his skills, hopes for just a mid-.700s OPS will be a thing of the past imo.That is probably the best post I've seen written on Gamel. Nice job TLB. Like you said, you can't really go off MLB stats because there basically isn't anything there. If people would instead focus on his MiLB stats, scouting reports, their eyes, and possibly even what he did with semi-regular PT as a 23 year old, then I think they will have a better understanding of what to expect. His 10/11 numbers, the crap about his showing up out of shape 3 years ago, Money's comments, etc. should be given little, if any, weight IMO.

How accurate are those depth charts? I always thought that was just the web guys (like McCalvy) guessing about who will back up what.Yeah I don't put much stock into any online depth charts because the people in charge (i.e. managers, coaches, etc.) can change their minds a lot quicker than someone who updates a webpage.

Not to be picky but who are you forgetting? I count Weeks, Lucroy, Hart, Gamel, and Yo if he starts, plus Braun if not suspended. So that would be 5-6.

Jericho could win and Punk gets a rematch at WM.

Unless he gets into a fight or does something really stupid, I don't see anyway Morgan is just outright released. Morgan has at least some trade value, even with his past.

I think it's pretty much guaranteed that ARam will hit cleanup, with or without Braun.

Arcia was 16 last year. I think there's a nearly zero chance that he plays in Wisconsin as a 17 year-old. I wouldn't be surprised if they have him repeat in the Dominican rather than even bring him to the States this year. A lot of that depends on how mature a youngster is and if they feel he can make the cultural transition, rather than how well he plays. Most of us have little idea about that stuff. So I'd say just playing in Arizona with a chance at a promotion to Helena would count as an aggressive promotion. But his name really could be something like Carlos Ramirez and he could really be 20. Not sure if that should be in blue or not.

I don't know, if Ziggler wins, I would want him to hold the title for more than a month. Otherwise it would make him seem like he's not legit. they are very good about letting up and comers win their belt only to take it away from them the next ppv and their careers hit a deadspot (see Shamus, Alberto Del Rio etc)I know, which is why it will probably happen.

I don't know, if Ziggler wins, I would want him to hold the title for more than a month. Otherwise it would make him seem like he's not legit.

I like Freese a lot and I think Braun is definitely better than Holliday (unless you're taking into account suspension). Other than that, I'd probably agree with the rest.

Yeah this was brought up a couple of months ago I believe.

i believe i heard that its been a few years since a lefty hit more than 5 homers in a season at comerica, which speaks to the park and their lack of left handed power since the place opened. The most hit by a lefty was 14 (Carlos Pena in 2005).

Not to be nitpicky but McGehee was really only a bench player in the playoffs. His spot on the bench was probably taken by a combo of Almonte, Boggs, Lopez, and Green. Except for Green, that's probably worse.

Tiger Stadium would've been great. Unfortunately, they play at Comerica Park now. But I get what you're saying.

My thoughts exactly after reading about him. He's only 24 but has put up a 775-800 OPS just about every year in the minors as UTIL guy. That seems like a good guy to have, at least for depth. Although looking at his fielding stats, his fielding percentage isn't that great (I know it's not a great stat) but most his problems seemed to come at 3B.

Yep. I mentioned it in other threads. If Braun is an 8-9 WAR player, we'd lose 3 games if he's suspended (I know it's not as cut and dry as that but its a way to predict his impact). And that's assuming his replacement is a replacement player. I would think Aoki with his OBP, speed, and defense, he could be a .5-1 WAR player over those 50 games. So that means we'd lose like 2-2.5 games without Braun. I also think ARam at Miller Park will put up some big numbers and (barring injury) we'll have a healthy Hart and Greinke to start the season, plus KRod all year. Finally, they play the Cubs 7 games, the Dodgers 6 games, Astros 5 games, Mets 2 games, Padres 3 games, Rockies 3 games, and Twins 3 games during the first 50 games. Obviously every team has a chance to win but those aren't exactly "scary" opponents. They also play the Cards and Giants 6 games and Braves, Reds, and DBacks 3 games. Overall though, I think there's a lot more "easier" games than "hard" ones during the first 50. It's not as hard as the June stretch last year or as easy as the August stretch but somewhere in between. I think we could win 27-28 games if Braun were suspended with that stretch.

You're right. Except Scutaro isn't one of the better SSs. I would put Reyes, Tulo, Hardy, Cabrera, Peralta, Castro, Rollins, H. & A. Ramirez, Andrus, Y. Escobar, Drew, and maybe even Jeter above Scutaro.

I don't think we're comparing what McGehee or even Prince will do this year (or at least I'm not). I'm looking at this year's team vs. what last year did to determine if there will be an upgrade or not. So I think last year's team was a 90 win team (I know they won 96) and I'm putting this year's at about 88 or 89.

Yep and it's usually included Gonzalez/Yuni and also taken into account defense. Gamel/Fielder could be even defensively, at least this year (with Gamel having better potential I think), ARam/McGehee is probably a wash as well, and obviously Gonzalez is way better than Yuni. So taking into account offense and defense, I think the general consensus is that this year's trio is almost even with last year's and maybe a win or so behind.

Well assuming the inflation rate of baseball salaries is about 6% ("only" 2.7% last year, but way more in prior years), in 9 years that $24M will feel like $15M of 2012 baseball salary. I'm not sure how the money works out but I'm betting it isn't evenly spread out. He will probably be closer to $30 mil/yr in those last couple of seasons but I get your point.

Player of the Year: Braun (if not suspended), otherwise I'll say ARam (love his potential at Miller Park) Pitcher of the Year: Greinke Rookie of the Year: Gamel (possibly Aoki if Braun is suspended) Most Improved Player: Gamel if given the chance (hard not to improve on .302 OPS last year) Questions Answered: 1) Who will get the first contract extension? Greinke 2) Who will be the first traded away or released (off the expected 25 man roster)? Morgan (if no Braun suspension), otherwise a backup IF (Izturis/Bianchi/Conrad/Ishikawa) 3) What position in the NL Central will the Brewers finish? 2nd with WC Record: 88-74

I don't think the Tigers will "regret" the last 4 or so years because Prince will suddenly break down. He definitely is more athletic than most big guys and he could always DH. I just don't think it's a good idea for anyone to be paid $24+ million/year in their mid-30s. Then again, I'm always thinking in terms of the Brewers market and maybe Detroit can manage it.

Man, you seem to be negative a lot of your posts nowadays. I don't remember it always having been that way but maybe I'm wrong. Yeah it sucks that Prince is gone but we knew it was coming. He seemed like a good guy, can't you just wish him the best and be done with it?

1I liked The Artist albeit with some issues. However, "pretentious" isn't the word I'd use for it. Not for a film that relies on a cute dog to get laughs. The team behind The Artist seems to just like taking older film types and recreating them as their OSS 117 series of films is a throwback to 60s spy spoofs. To me, The Artist is basically a better spin on the Austin Powers type of throwback film. Like I said, I admit I haven't seen it. I'm interested in it just because of all the talk but that's about it. Maybe "trendy" is a better word? Just because it's something so different, everybody is clamoring about it. I'm sure the weak year has a lot to do with it but I just don't understand how a black & white, silent, French movie (I know the title cards are still in English) could be the frontrunner for Best Picture in 2012. If people want to vote for the homage movie, I'd rather have Hugo. Again, I haven't seen The Artist so I guess it's kind of unfair for me to judge but The Artist seems like pure Oscar-bait that only a select handful of people (mainly cinephiles) would like, whereas Hugo has appeal to moviegoers of all ages and types.

Agree completely. It was a fine movie with good not great performances. It was a really down year for movies in my mind. The movies that were supposed to be Oscar contenders like Shame, The Girl with The Dragon Tattoo, J Edgar, and others disappointed. I think this year a movie like Moneyball looks much better than it was. There were numerous movies from last year I thought were betterI thought Pitt was good but not sure he deserves a nom. I really don't understand why Hill got nominated because his role didn't really require anything (wasn't really emotional, no physical transformation, etc.). He was fine but it definitely wasn't Oscar-worthy in my eyes. I was also a big fan of The Girl with The Dragon Tattoo. Maybe it's because I never read the books or saw the Swedish version but I thought it was a really good movie and should've been nominated for Best Picture. Out of the noms, I've only seen Hugo and Moneyball but hope to watch The Help, Tree of Life, Midnight in Paris and possibly War Horse in the next month. It also seems like The Artist is the big frontrunner but I don't see what the big deal is. I haven't seen it and it could be really good but it just seems like a big reason it's a frontrunner is because it's a silent movie and an homage to that era. It just seems pretentious to me.