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Everything posted by Raw Biz
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Buster Olney says Sizemore to Rangers, Nats or Brewers
Raw Biz replied to Mike's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
MLB Trade Rumors Actual link. -
Montgomery struggled this year but there's still no way the Royals would trade him for Marcum. If they did, I'd be all over it.
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Brewers have serious interest in Jose Reyes?
Raw Biz replied to BillyRed's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Rams basically said what I think about Morgan. He might not be a .300 hitter but he's close enough. And you said he's more of a platoon player, which is exactly what he was this past year. He rarely started against lefties. As for Gomez, he missed the last week of July and all of August. I wouldn't really call that "most of the year." And even if he did miss time this year, it was a broken collarbone so it shouldn't really have an effect on what he does next year. -
There really is a worse defensive RF than Hart!!!
Raw Biz replied to chickinbrickin's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I thought they've been incredibly lucky all postseason. It just seems like everything goes their way. Yeah some of it is their own talent/execution but look at the sac bunt last night. The bunt was popped up but since Beltre was charging, it went over his head. I don't think they were trying to bunt it in the air either. So if Beltre holds, the bunt is caught and a likely double, if not triple play. If Beltre charges and the bunt is on the ground, he gets an out at 3rd. But he charged and it went over his head and the Rangers were lucky to just get the out at 1st. Obviously that wasn't the game-winner but the Cardinals always seem to have the breaks fall to them. -
For the record, WAR isn't a universally-calculated stat like BA, OBP, SLG, etc. Sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus all have different ways to calculate it. I was using baseball-reference and they list an offensive WAR and defensive WAR. Since they listed Barmes at a 1.4 oWAR for last year (with a .244/.312/.386 line), I figured Gamel should be able to get a 2 oWAR. Granted, SS was a pretty poor position for offense last year but I still think Gamel will be able to produce relative to his 1B counterparts as Barmes did to his SS counterparts.oWAR includes the positional adjustment, so that would mean Gamel would need to be .6 better than Barmes, plus the SS adjustment, plus the 1B adjustment, which is about 2.6 oWAR in total. Once again, the comps for something like that are Josh Hamilton, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Gonzalez, and other players who are just quite simply miles better than Mat Gamel.Hamilton - 3.4 (7.2 in 2010)Teixeira - 2.5Gonzalez - 3.0 (5.2 in 2010) I'm not really sure why Teixeira is so low with 39 HR and 111 RBI. Probably cuz his OPS was .835 (with avg under .250). Anyway, you just upped that number to 2.6 and I'm not sure why since the original talk was about Gamel being a 2.0. And you keep throwing out names that Gamel obviously won't compare to, 2 of which don't even play 1B. However, I will throw some 1B out there that I think he could compare to. Hosmer - 2.3Freeman - 1.7Goldschmidt - .6 (in 177 PA so about 1.8-2.0 in full season) I don't think he'll hit for as much avg as Hosmer or maybe even Freeman (I see Gamel around .270). He also won't put up as many HR as Hosmer did but I see him right around 20. He'll probably get on base about the same as the others, around .340. Then I think he'll slug around .460 for a nice OPS around .800, which is where all three of those guys wound up. Gamel is a few years older than these 3 but I also think that gives him a bit of an edge with more experience. Ultimately, Hosmer will most likely be better than Gamel (Freeman and Goldschmidt might wind up better too) but I think the seasons they had last year are about what we can expect from Gamel.
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Brewers have serious interest in Jose Reyes?
Raw Biz replied to BillyRed's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
So you wanna keep Yuni but bring in a new CF, 1B, SP, RP, and 3B? And not only that but the CF must be "solid" offensively and defensively, even though that's exactly what Morgan is. And the 1B must be able to hit for power and average (so Prince?). The SP must be an ace and the RP must be a stud. Sorry but we're not the Yankees/Red Sox/Phillies. Not only are these players not usually freely available, they also cost a lot of money. There's no way to get a stud at every position. The CF platoon is more than solid offensively and defensively. A 1B who hits for power and average will usually cost a lot in terms of money and/or prospects. The cheaper guys are the ones who hit for one or the other (power - Branyan-type or avg - Loney-type). Obviously there are only a limited number of ace SP so they will also cost lots in terms of money/prospects. Same with the stud RP. The Brewers have to do the best they can with what resources they have. That would be leaving CF as is, giving Gamel/Green/possibly McGehee/Hairston 1B/3B, and upgrading SS and another arm in the pen. -
I don't see how you can go from these luscious locks to completely bald at only 31. http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/001/007/118/AlbertPujolsWithHair_display_image.jpg?1307770073
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Is this what the Gamel-hate has been about? Because one guy said he didn't want Ethier and his salary? I think everything being equal, a lot of people would take Ethier over Gamel. However, once you factor in Ethier's contract compared to Gamel's, along with the fact that we'd have to give something up to get him, I'd still take Gamel. And even with the state of the Dodgers being what it is, they aren't just going to give a guy like Ethier away. So obviously if there is a chance to upgrade, you do it. However, I don't think giving up prospects and having to pay Ethier likely $10+ mil is worth the slight upgrade. And yes I think Ethier would only be a slight upgrade over Gamel. edit: I'm also confused again as to how you think Barmes will be a 3 WAR player (which he's only done once, although it was last year) but you don't think Gamel can be a 2 WAR next year. If Barmes was a 1.5 WAR on offense last year, I think Gamel should be able to be a 2.Barmes is a plus defensive SS and Gamel is an unknown quantity defensively as a 1B. For the record, people aren't contributing WAR on offense or defense, all of those stats are measured against the average, then total replacement value is the 20 runs or 20 wins per 650 PAs. Anyway, let's say Gamel is scratch with the bat, which is what you meant to say (since 0 BRAA + replacement adjustment = 2 WAR). And let's say, because we have no idea how good he is at 1B, he's scratch there too. 0 BRAA + 0 UZR/DRS - 12.5 runs for 1B positional adjustment + 20 runs for replacement adjustment = 0.75 WAR In order for him to be a 2 win player, he'd need to be a 5 run defender and contribute 7.5 BRAA. That would mean raving reports about his defense, which aren't there, or he's going to completely go off at the plate, to the tune of 12.5 BRAA. Which is about Jay Bruce, Brian McCann, Andre Ethier, Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, JJ Hardy, and Nelson Cruz territory. Yeah, good luck with that. And calling a guy a 1.5 WAR player with a 2 WAR ceiling is not "hating" on him. Nor is saying the organization shouldn't look to upgrade on that player. He's not a superstar and he's almost assuredly not going to be a superstar. The sooner BF.net gets that through it's head, the better. For the record, WAR isn't a universally-calculated stat like BA, OBP, SLG, etc. Sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus all have different ways to calculate it. I was using baseball-reference and they list an offensive WAR and defensive WAR. Since they listed Barmes at a 1.4 oWAR for last year (with a .244/.312/.386 line), I figured Gamel should be able to get a 2 oWAR. Granted, SS was a pretty poor position for offense last year but I still think Gamel will be able to produce relative to his 1B counterparts as Barmes did to his SS counterparts.
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Is this what the Gamel-hate has been about? Because one guy said he didn't want Ethier and his salary? I think everything being equal, a lot of people would take Ethier over Gamel. However, once you factor in Ethier's contract compared to Gamel's, along with the fact that we'd have to give something up to get him, I'd still take Gamel. And even with the state of the Dodgers being what it is, they aren't just going to give a guy like Ethier away. So obviously if there is a chance to upgrade, you do it. However, I don't think giving up prospects and having to pay Ethier likely $10+ mil is worth the slight upgrade. And yes I think Ethier would only be a slight upgrade over Gamel. edit: I'm also confused again as to how you think Barmes will be a 3 WAR player (which he's only done once, although it was last year) but you don't think Gamel can be a 2 WAR next year. If Barmes was a 1.5 WAR on offense last year, I think Gamel should be able to be a 2.
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Really, you wouldn't take the collective opinion of a group of people that have likely seen and researched Brewers players more in 1 day than 1 guy has spent in his "writing" career. I wasn't specifically referring to just you. No, I wouldn't put a lot of time and effort to try and upgrade the 1b position. I never said anything about the rest of the team, but twist my words if you must. What has Taylor Green done to have earned the 3rd base job?Yes. One group is collectively a bunch of homers. The other is a guy who views players objectively with no bias that I'm aware of. If I turned the clocks back a year, I'd find that the consensus on this forum was that Aumary Rivas was a back-end big league starter.I think the point he was trying to make was that because we follow the Brewers a lot more closely than a national guy, we'd probably have a little more insight. And just because we like the Brewers doesn't mean we're blind and automatically support anyone in the organization. If that was the case, we'd all want to keep Yuni. If anything, I think some people here are a little more down on certain players because they see them so much. The national consensus is that Greinke is a true ace and Marcum a solid 2/3, while some here think Greinke is no more than a 2/3 and Marcum is a 4 and should be traded. An example from me is Corey Hart. A lot of people think he's a very good player but from watching him every game, I see his defensive liabilities, his inconsistency, and his love of the low-and-away slider and I don't think he's that great (a solid contributor for sure but I wouldn't care if he left). There have also been other players throughout the years that people here haven't been high on. Like I said, just because they play in this organization doesn't mean we're obligated to like them. As for Gamel, it seems like all the naysayers have to go on is his 200 PAs over 3 years and the fact that he is 26 and hasn't been called up yet. The people who think he will be good are basing it off of his actual very good minor league numbers in his career, as well as having seen him play. If anything, he should at least be given the chance to prove himself with some consistent playing time before you write him off. I'm also confused as to your feelings on him. You bad-mouthed him all thread and then in your last post said he has a chance to be a 2 WAR player (despite saying earlier he wouldn't be a 2 WAR player).
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Markakis would be nice if his salary was half of what it is. But he's due to make $12 mil next year, then $15 mil the next 2 years, then a $17.5 mil team option. His OPS has basically been .800 or under (.756) in 4 of his 6 seasons, including the last 3. It was almost .900 in 08 but his HR numbers and OBP have dropped since (career high HR still only 23). And he will be 28 next season (some might think this means he will bust out since he will be in his "prime" but I don't think so since he's already been in the league 6 full seasons). Meanwhile, Corey Hart OPSed almost .900 in 07, fell down to .750 in 08 and 09, and jumped back to .865 the past 2 years. And he's only due to make $9 and $10 mil the next 2 years. I would much rather have the better/cheaper player in Hart (and I'm not even a Corey Hart fan).
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*Corey, *Shaun, *Markakis. And no thanks. Hart is better and cheaper than Markakis. Marcum is still a good, if not very good, pitcher (#2/3) and I don't think Hardy will come close to what he did this year.
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Gamel, like Braun, should never see 3B again. He should more than hold his own at 1B and probably would be decent in RF as well. No reason to make our defense any worse than it is by putting him back at 3rd.
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Yeah I don't get this either. The guy was great this season overall and was pretty darn good in 07, 08, and 10 (missed 09 due to injuries). He may have been tired at the end of the year but I don't think that's the case since he only pitched 5 more innings than the previous year. I think it's just a bad stretch he went through which happened to come at the worst possible time. Either way, I wouldn't trade the guy we traded Lawrie for to get a guy who is basically a switch-hitting Gomez without the defense and power. He gets on base a little more than Gomez but probably isn't as fast. And I don't think he'll replicate his numbers from this year. Probably looking somewhere around .270/.320/.340 with 25-30 steals. I don't think that's worth Marcum.
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I still don't get why people say they will boo him. Yes he could be on a rival team but that doesn't negate what he's done for the Brewers in his career. I'm not saying he should be cheered but there's no way he should be booed. What's wrong with just being indifferent, no cheers, no boos. People like Sheffield should be booed but not Prince.
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Is 1st round pick compensation a given with K-Rod?
Raw Biz replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Again, he would have to decline arbitration before he could start receiving offers. -
I would be all for Doumit taking over Kotsay's role. I would think if they did sign him they would keep another catcher on the roster, possibly Maldonado for defensive purposes. I just wonder what it would cost since he made about 5 million this year.
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I think what you need to consider is who would look better as an everyday player. Gomez's defense and running ability can't be matched. Morgan can't hit LHP (.201 career), but Gomez is pretty much even in his career against LHP and RHP (.244/.242). Granted Morgan may end up with a slightly higher average (.310 vs RHP), Gomez is more valuable due to his fielding and running. As an everyday player in the 8 hole, I take Gomez every time. Plus, he's younger and has a better chance to improve. Also, if you are taking one right now, you have a possible replacement for Morgan is necessary in Schafer. Don't have that to replace Gomez.Exactly. Mike said "My point is other than PR and defense he can't compare to Morgan or other available options." So basically Morgan gets on base better but Gomez is better once he's on and he's better at defense? I would agree there but I think you're undervaluing how important defense is. Players play defense half the time. I think Gomez makes up for any runs lost on offense by saving a bunch more on defense. As far as Morgan starting over Gomez against RHP, that's what a good manager would do if he had both those players. But the conversation was if you had to choose only one to keep for the future, who would it be. Since Gomez is 6 years younger and a better defender (not to mention he doesn't carry the stigma that Morgan does), I'll take Gomez.
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Guess for Opening Day 2012 starting positional lineup.
Raw Biz replied to Bombers's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Did you mean righties because Gomez hit lefties pretty good this year. And I also don't think Morgan is as close to Gomez as some people think. He's 6 years older so his speed may start to decline and I also don't think he reads the ball off the bat as well as Gomez. He also has a noodle for an arm. If Gomez is a 9.5, I'd put Morgan at a 7, in which case I'll take the upgrade on defense over the downgrade on offense. I think this team has been built too much around offense in the past and we need to start concentrating a little more on defense. We don't need every position to be great offensively, we just don't want anyone hurting the team (and I don't think Gomez will if he hits at the bottom). I will sacrifice some offense at SS and CF to put great defenders in the most important positions. Now we just need to find that great defensive SS. -
Because they've been interested in Hart in the past and maybe they prefer him. Also, maybe Cuddyer resigns or goes somewhere else.
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I think Atlanta is the perfect trading partner. Ideally, I would try to get Minor/Beachy or one of their other pitching prospects for Hart. Then I'd either trade Wolf for a glove-first SS with decent OBP and sign a guy like Cuddyer or trade Wolf for a RF/1B (if 1B move Gamel to RF) and sign Barmes.
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Perhaps what Monty is referring to is that Gomez is Arbitration eligible now and are they not one year deals? If so, then Schafer, Gindl or someone else would be a cheaper and better option in 2013. However, I still hope Gomez is gone before 2012 because even batting 8th I don't need a .220 hitter. Keep Morgan or Gomez (for defense and PR only), but not both. Again Gomez's value on defense alone is enough justification to keep him. And he's not simply a .220 hitter. Yes that's what he did this year but he's a career .243 hitter with an OBP close to .300. Obviously not great but not terrible for a guy hitting at the bottom of the lineup. Plus, he's a solid platoon candidate since he hit .278 off LHP this year (though career numbers against RHP & LHP are actually almost identical). And he will only be 26 next year whereas Morgan will be 32. Gomez has way more value than Morgan so if I had to choose, I'll take Gomez.
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I could be mistaken but I'm pretty sure he was a starter in 09 and parts of 2010 as well but he's been injured a few times. I wouldn't mind having him but Marcum is definitely overpaying and Wolf might be as well.
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Career OBP of .328 with last year a high of .360. His other years were .333, .296, .303, and .320. Those are better than Yuni but I don't think they constitute a good clip. A package involving Wolf/Marcum would be way overpaying. I would trade a mid-level prospect maybe but that's it. And I think we should concentrate on getting a glove-first SS.
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Guess for Opening Day 2012 starting positional lineup.
Raw Biz replied to Bombers's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Completely disagree on Gomez. He'll be an incredibly cheap platoon mate for Morgan at worst. If not he's a great bench option because of his speed and defense. No way they let him walk. I do completely agree that Gamel won't be in the OF. He'll be at 1B or off the team. He didn't play any OF at Nashville this year. If him being an OF was in the cards, he would've been playing some in AAA last year.I agree with you on Gomez. I don't see why people think he has no value. He has tremendous value as a defensive whiz in CF and as a pinch-runner. I actually wouldn't even mind it if he got the CF job full-time and hit 8th. People just need to accept that he won't be much of an offensive force but he shouldn't need to be with the way he plays defense. I think NLCS showed how important defense can be to teams. Gomez is one of, if not the best defensive CF in the game. You don't just cut a guy like that.

