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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    People have decided that Parra is mentally weak and falls apart under pressure based off of his facial expressions? It's all so silly, IMO. As Ennder showed, the numbers appear to show that the theory is absolutely false. And I just have trouble with the whole nibbling criticism. Maybe he is trying to be too fine but maybe he just doesn't have the best control. If he starts throwing pitched down the middle, he's going to get predictably crushed. There isn't always some simple solution to a player's troubles. Sometimes it's simply physical limitation. I don't know what's the exact problem with Parra but I don't think anyone else here does either.
  2. rluzinski
    When fans think there's any easy solution for a player's woes but can't figure out why the player doesn't do it, it's almost certainly because it's not that simple. The problem for Hall is that he's a marginal starter, offensively. That means his offensive production when he has the platoon advantage is good but he's going to struggle the rest of the time. And it's possible that Hall naturally has a larger than average platoon split, which just compounds his problems. I just don't see him getting around that.
  3. rluzinski
    If the Brewers had to lose a player I think Braun, Hardy, Fielder, Gallardo, Hoffman, Cameron were all harsher losses than Weeks. It really sucks to lose him but it is an area of strength for us and probably will cost us 1-2 wins at most. Not sure if I agree with Hoffman but I am on board with the general sentiment. I think 1-2 wins might be the average though. Could be zero or it could be 4, depending on how the ball bounces. The one thing that I don't understand is how some seem to think that true defensive talent can make such huge jumps in a short period of time. I'm not sure we think that's true for offense, so why defense? If Gamel was a very bad defensive 3B for the last two years and a bad 3B to start the year.... he's still a pretty bad 3B, defensively. He's probably not as bad as Bruan was but we should in NO WAY expect him to get anywhere near the offensive numbers Braun put up his rookie year, either. A 1.004 OPS? Never say never but the odds of that are beyond remote. If his injury last year really is messing up his projections, I can see being optimistic about him offensively. .350/.500/.850? I'd still take the under but it's at least a reasonable guess. I haven't looked at any of the numbers yet. I'm just not yet sold that having Gamel play everyday is really the obviously best option. His defense really worries me.
  4. rluzinski
    I think Milwaukee loves Bush and Bush seems to love Milwaukee Many Brewer fans wanted to DFA the guy after 6 starts last year, so the love has been short lived. I'm always surprised by how fans want to DFA a guy one year and sign him to a long term deal the next. I think Bush has value but a long term deal for a 4.3ish type pitcher who will be 29 this year? I don't really see the point. For the right price, sure but even 3/24 makes me nervous, injury risk-wise
  5. rluzinski
    I can't imagine that was intentional.
  6. rluzinski
    It's a quick, dirty way to see how consistent a pitcher has been. If he has a 5.0 ERA but 5 of his 6 starts has been a quality start, he's been a decent pitcher for his team. A 4.5 ERA starting pitcher is worth about $8 mil a year, so apparently teams value an average starting pitcher a heck of a lot.
  7. rluzinski
    It's a quick, dirty way to see how consistent a pitcher has been. If he has a 5.0 ERA but 5 of his 6 starts has been a quality start, he's been a decent pitcher for his team. A 4.5 ERA starting pitcher is worth about $8 mil a year, so apparently teams value an average starting pitcher a heck of a lot.
  8. rluzinski
    It's a quick, dirty way to see how consistent a pitcher has been. If he has a 5.0 ERA but 5 of his 6 starts has been a quality start, he's been a decent pitcher for his team. A 4.5 ERA starting pitcher is worth about $8 mil a year, so apparently teams value an average starting pitcher a heck of a lot.
  9. rluzinski
    The reason teams are still pitching to Pujols is because adding 500+ points to his OBP is not going to minimize his offensive contribution. Not making an out and getting on base is a huge chunk of any batter's value.
  10. rluzinski
    I'd like to see baseball go back to two divisions per league and then add another wildcard for each league. Very nice. I'd certainly prefer that over having a 4 and 6 team division, like the current set up. And I agree with others that expanding to 4 divisions per league would just make it even harder to make sure that the best teams make the playoffs.
  11. rluzinski
    Tonight's game perfectly illustrated how instant replay should be implemented in professional sports. It reversed an obvious error and it took a matter of two minutes to do it. I understand objections to expanding the role of instant replay in baseball (although I don't agree) but I can't understand objecting to how it's currently being used. A sport needs to eliminate obvious errors to officiating when it can.
  12. rluzinski
    Hall has an updated ZiPS projection of .253/.329/.451/.780, so we have to expect him to be pretty bad against lefties, going forward. I'm just worried that we'll have another Braun situation on our hands, defensively. Hall is at least an average defensive 3B this year and Gamel has basically no chance of matching that this year, IMO. I can accept that Gamel is better than Braun was, but Braun was epically bad, so that's little consolation for me. So count me as being in the concerned camp with regard to the prospect of Gamel getting starts at 3B this year.
  13. rluzinski
    If the Brewers offered him a 4/$24 mil offer, I think there is a near zero chance of him accepting that.
  14. rluzinski
    Unless there's another move associated with this, I'm thinking Gamel might be called up to pinch hit for a week and a half, DH for the interleague series and then get sent back down. And saying that all prospects should be sent up as soon as they are better hitters than the MLB bench players is just so short sighted, IMO. You are potentially trading 600 AB when a guy in his prime for maybe 100 AB when a guy is still developing as a player. Now, if we are just talking about super two status, I might grudgingly go along with that line of thinking, depending on if the team is potentially playoff bound.
  15. rluzinski
    What a crazy inning: out, out, walk, walk, single, single, single, walk, single, walk, out Hardy makes 2 of the 3 outs http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  16. rluzinski
    Walks and bloop singles are killing the Marlins this inning.
  17. rluzinski
    An infield groundout by Kendall. Man, it's getting old.
  18. rluzinski
    What are the most consecutive HRs have a team has had without scoring a run any other way? I know the Brewers have done 5 at least twice but I'm guessing the record is something crazy, like 10+
  19. rluzinski
    Maybe Looper should try his luck as a reliever? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  20. rluzinski
    It's hard to project any reliever to have a sub 3 ERA, much less a guy with less than 40 IP in the majors. That said, he's had a phenominal K and BB rate since 2007, so there's legitamite reason to be excited about him. As for him being a starter, the average pitcher has an ERA .8 points higher as a starter than as a reliever. Let's say DiFelice is a true 3.5 reliever. Would you prefer 200 IP @ 4.3 ERA or 90 IP @ 3.5. ERA? That starter line is signifacantly more valuable and easily better than what we should expect from Soupon. Of course, should we really expect a .8 ERA difference from DiFelice? He's not really an average kind of pitcher, so I 'm skeptical. As long as the back end of the rotation can keep up their reasonable performace, I'd leave things as they are.
  21. rluzinski
    All those guys are a lot closer to free agency than Braun was when he signed, so the Brewers have a lot less leverage with them.
  22. rluzinski
    Here's an explanation of wOBA: http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml
  23. rluzinski
    Just so no one accuses me of backtracking, can I provide commentary about pie in this thread or can I only provide pie related data? A few years ago, Dan Fox broke down OPS with a little math and found how it weighs each of its components. The values were pretty close to the common linear weight values but OPS undervalues walks and HRs.
  24. rluzinski
    "The Book" looked at the advantage a batter enjoys when a runner is at first. Batters have a pretty big advantage with less than 2 out (defenders playing at dp depth or playing for the bunt?) and lefties have a much larger advantage than righties. And if we had a retrosheet/ database master among us, he could easily tell us the average skill level of a pitcher with the bases loaded is higher or lower than average. I'd guess it's., average but perhaps not.
  25. rluzinski
    Step aside? Why do I sense that you are about two posts away from calling me "son"? I made it clear some time ago that I was no longer interested in taking the bet, as it wasn't worth having my integrity questioned over it. You want to continue to question my motivation for not wanting to use OPS? More power to you. I'll be happy to simply provide the raw data throughout the season, without adding any additional commentary. People can interpret the data any way they see it. No bets. No winners or losers.
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