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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I don't think we are seeing collusion, just caution. They are plenty of signings this off season that were at fair market price. If the unsigned players are asking for more than their current worth, they will have to lower their asking price. Players probably have a lower projected worth because teams have lower projected revenue. On a side note, I'm always disheartened by how brainwashed some baseball fans. The owners have convinced them that the owners are the victims, while the players are evil for trying to get a contract proportional to their value to the owner. The players ARE the product, so why act suprised that owners are willing to pay them over 50% of their total revenue? They aren't being forced to, that's what they are worth! I am no economist but I question whether most fans have even a basic understanding of all this. Some just can't get past the concept that someone could provide a service worth millions of dollars.
  2. rluzinski
    1.There's no reason to assume that next year's off season market will favor the players anymore than this year. 2. Any pitcher runs a significant risk of injury, which is why guaranteed money can be so appealing. I can buy that Sheets is willing to make less per year on a multiyear deal, because he's concerned about his long term health more than the average pitcher. I just think the theory that his multiyear demands is evidence that his arm is being held up only by the last attached tenden is quite a stretch. For those in agreement with that theory, what do you think his IP over/under is? 25? 50?
  3. rluzinski
    Everyone else waiting the market out ended last season without having an injured pitching arm. The other starting pitchers who were free agents that are close to Sheets' ability when he's healthy have been signed quite awhile ago. I was contesting the theory that Sheets holding out for a multiyear deal was somehow proof that he was hurt. There are plenty of other guys doing the same thing.
  4. rluzinski
    It was 100% "We can trade him if he sucks" and it was repeated about 30 times. It came every time someone said that Suppan would not be worth his projected performance for the last 2 years. Exactly why would someone say "We can just trade him if he's worth what he's making"? What kind of statement would that be a response to? Suppan projects to be about a 5 ERA pitcher and I don't think it's likely that the Brewers will have 5 starting pitchers that project to be better than that over the next 2 years. And even if they have one that looks to be slightly better, they would just stick with Supan because of his contract. It's not right but it's the way it always works.
  5. rluzinski
    I think the chance of that is near zero. The Brewers have almost no starting pitching depth this year and I don't see that changing substantially by next year. Add in that he was signed to a high profile contract to be a "BIG GAME" pitcher and I think he'll be in the rotation through 2010. Suppan isn't even average but he's fine as a #5. Every time Suppan is brought up, it just pisses me off. All I can think about is the dozens of time these two statements were made in that huge "Suppan Signed" thread: 1. He's a big game pitcher 2. We can just trade him if he sucks. I hope Mark A. learned a valuable leason.
  6. rluzinski
    There have been dozens of players that have signed or continue to seek a multiyear deal in this soft market. The fact that Sheets is one of those players proves little, IMO. I also doubt that Sheets will get 3 guaranteed years but it's not surprising to me that they are publically seeking it. There are many notable players still seeking more than a team is willing to give. That's why they are still on the market. There are many notable players who don't have teams in a bidding war for their services. Are they all desperate? Should they all accept a 1 year deal and hope the market improves next year What am I missing about Sheets' current situation that makes him unique to everyone else waiting the market out? And if Sheets was paid proportional to the 125 IP expectation, have no problem with that, in itself. I don't think Sheets and the Brewers could show any less interest in each other, short of calling each other bad names, though.
  7. rluzinski
    Coolest franchise city? Pilots (1) Mariners (1) Brewers (3)
  8. rluzinski
    I'm not aware of anyone who's even attempted to measure it. I just don't know how you could. There may be some players who would have more overall value by sacrificing some power for more balls in play. I wouldn't rule it out.
  9. rluzinski
    Sheets is not the only notable player not signed yet. People are acting like the regular season starts in a week. It's late but not "desperation time" late, IMO.
  10. rluzinski
    While completely possible, you'd think that as it becomes increasingly clear that no other team is willing to offer a multiyear deal either, that we'd hear more about the Brewers and Sheets reuniting. At this point, I don't think Sheets or his agent are willing to publicity entertain a 1 year deal. That may change in 4 weeks but right now, they aren't going to show their hand, I think. Of course, I don't think Melvin is either.
  11. rluzinski
    I think the biggest reason that Sheets has shown little interest in the Brewers this off season is because he wants a multiyear deal and Melvin made it clear that he wouldn't offer one.
  12. rluzinski
    A player who cuts down in outs becomes a better player.
  13. rluzinski
    Cameron projects to be perhaps a bit over league average. Even a pessimistic estimate puts his value at $8 mil, so this idea that he is grossly overplayed at $10 mil is just silly. Add in that the Brewers have no real plan B and none of it makes much sense. I guess people that undervalue defense and think a K is a sin would think such things.
  14. rluzinski
    I can appreciate being concerned about Lamb, since he may actually rack up a decent amount of AB this year. I'm more concerned about his defense, though. Counsell? The bar isn't exactly set very high for a utility infielder. Counsell is probably still well above average in that role.
  15. rluzinski
    I don't even think I'd consider a three year deal for Sheets. Sheets is finding it tough to even get a reasonable two year deal at this point.
  16. rluzinski
    If only Melvin had known about the Jennings injury. Then he would have known not to offer Sheets arbitration. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif I don't blame any team for being very cautious with Sheets. That doesn't mean we should be jumping to conclusions, though. If the IP over/under for Sheets is 1 for 2009, I'll take the over.
  17. rluzinski
    You could just as well make the opposite argument and say "What good is a decent starting rotation if you have no closer to finish the games?" Hoffman will log about 50 innings. A mediocre starting pitcher will log somewhere around 200 IP. Let's say that the closer's average appearance comes in situations double the leverage of starters. In other words, there is more on the line, in terms of winning and losing, so every run saved by a closer is twice as valuable. Hoffman still has to be twice as better as his alternative, than the starting pitcher is to his replacement. Does that make any sense? To say it in one sentence.... Every run saved by a closer (over his replacement) is roughly twice as important as the starter's runs saved but the starter has 4 times as many innings to save runs. It's tough for more closers to match the value of even an average starting pitcher as a result. Of course, I don't really want Melvin signing some old, average starting pitcher to a 3-4 year deal but if a 1 or 2 year deal had been out there, I would have preferred that over Hoffman. As it stands, we will see a very bad pitcher log a significant number of innings.
  18. rluzinski
    Naaa, they'll pick up some crap heap starting pitcher just before the season starts. He'll be the long man out of the pen and end up racking up a 5.5 ERA in 120 IP, because of injuries. Seems to me that the Brewers would have been better off spending Hoffman's money on a mediocre starting pitcher but everyone's obsessed with closers. I think Hoffman is a decent relief pitcher but he's going to have about a forth the innings a starting pitcher would have. Water under the bridge now.
  19. rluzinski
    The BABIP stat is flawed because it assumes hitters have zero control over how well they center the bat on the ball and where the ball is hit. People using BABIP are not assuming it's completely a luck stat, or else they would predict a league average BABIP for everyone. For any stat, the observed spread is always larger than the true spread in talent. That's how sample statistics work. The farther away a stat is from the mean, the larger regression we generally expect. Having a .350 BABIP is like a guy hitting 70 HRs. You could argue that he should be expected to do it again but the odds say that you would be wrong. Conversely, we wouldn't predict a league average number of HRs from him, either. The best guess would lie between the two. Theriot is very skilled at shooting base hit after base hit to RF. That is a skill, not luck as strawbossisevil implies. In the old days it was referred to as ability to "handle the bat". So how the heck do you explain his .289 BABIP in 2007? He was below league average! Was he working on his throwback/bat-handling skills during the 2007-2008 off season or did he still have all those skills in 2007 but was simply the victim of bad luck? The most likely explanation, of course, is that his true skill is somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 BABIP. The projections predict a slightly above average BABIP from Theriot. .315 looks like a good guess. He still is projected to hit well for a SS in 2009, though.
  20. rluzinski
    To expand on defensive metrics, Dewan's system had Prince at -45 plays, compared to an average 1B, from 06-08. Only Jacobs was worse (-49). Using .75 runs/non-out, that works out to -11.25 runs/year. He was -9 runs last year. I think that baseball Info Solutions (Dewan owns it) subjectively keeps track of how good 1B are at digging out balls. I think Pujols is ussually rated the best. If we could see that, we could have a more objective number to us as a worst case. Even if you use a really bad number (-10 runs/year) you still end with something -2 wins for his defense. That would pull him down to a league average 1B, which is worth around $10 mil/year. Basically, Melvin is pretty protected over the next 2 years. It's possible that Fielder will get more in 2011 than his production will be worth to the Brewers. Might be a good time to trade him. On a side note, Tom H. wrote today that the 5/$60 mil deal would have bought out his first TWO years of free agency. If the deal was for 09-13, Prince would have been stupid to take it.
  21. rluzinski
    It's impossible to gauge how many losses Prince's defense cost the Brewers last year but in general, ~10 runs = 1 win. An average infield error costs about .75 runs.
  22. rluzinski
    Since UZR doesn't account for Prince's bad scooping ability, I think it's fair to call him -10 runs, defensively. That's alot. It turns him from a great player ( 2 wins above average) to only a good one (1 win). Of course, that still means that he's worth over $13 mil on the open market
  23. rluzinski
    If Pudge is willing to be a backup for about $1 mil, he probably has 20+ teams he could choose from. Is there any reason to think he'd chose Milwaukee in that scenario? I would love if he did but I see it as far fetched.
  24. rluzinski
    The rule of thumb for arby values is 40%/60%/80% of free agent value. If Fielder is worth $7 mil this year: 2009: $7 mil 2010: $10.5 mil 2011: $14 mil 2012: $17.5 mil ----------------- Total: $49 mil If you use $8 mil as his current value, you get $56 mil. So, he might have cost himself around $3 to $10 mil to become a free agent one year earlier. Maybe that's still worth it to him. Who knows? Why should we hold it against him, anyway? Apparently, it's OK to do what you think is in your own best interests in the United States, except if you play professional sports?
  25. rluzinski
    I swear, if we get some opinionated blowhard, I'm going to be pissed. Powell has really set the bar high.
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