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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    You don't have to come up with a bunch of obscure, semi-relevant numbers to see that Weeks has offensive value. Just comparing his OBP and SLG to his peers gives you a pretty good view. On a side note, Tom H. made the claim last weekend that Weeks may not be in the Brewers plans past 2010, which I find pretty unbelievable.
  2. rluzinski
    The standard deviation part was not directed specifically towards you, sorry for the confusion. I understand claiming that an eyeballed projection can do almost as well as a mathematical one. I think that's true. Over the long haul, you will not beat a good projection system with a 5 minute guestimation, though. If the person setting the playing time estimates incorporates all injury information, you aren't adding any relevant information to your projection that the other projection doesn't already have. Over 1 season, you could very easily beat it, however. Just assume each team will win as many games in 2009 as they did in 2008 and you get a reasonable projection. The "coin flip" uncertainty isn't much smaller than the "true skill" variance, afterall!
  3. rluzinski
    Projections are not magical but you are not going to do as well, year in and out, by just eyeballing it. I don't know how you think you think you could. You could certainly do better than just assuming 81 wins for each team but a good projection will beat you over the long run. Even if God told you the exact probability the Brewers had of winning each of thei 162 games next year, you still wouldn't now exactly how many wins the Brewers would get. A team that has exactly a 50% chance of winning each game will win between 75 and 87 wins, 68% of the time (1 standard deviation). There's still a lot of luck involved, even over 162 games. If the Brewers are projected to win 85 games, they have around a 25% chance of winning 80 or less games OR 90+ games. Assiming 90 wins gets you into the playoffs 75% of the time (don't know the real number), the Brewers might have a 1 in 5 or 6 chance making the playoffs this year.
  4. rluzinski
    I think it's fair to assume, "all else being equal" in these kind of discussions.
  5. rluzinski
    Projections, for reference : Name Marcel ERA/Chone ERA Gallardo: 3.59 / 3.50 Bush: 4.29 / 4.30 Parra: 4.44 / 4.21 Looper: 4.42 / 4.85 Suppan: 4.82 / 5.31 The Marcel ERA average is 4.30. Pretty average, assuming no one gets hurt (not a very good assumption). Just don't skip any starts (at least early) and I'm fine with Gallardo pitching #1. Bush and Parra's projections are pretty similar, with Parra obviously having the higher upside.
  6. rluzinski
    OBP is more important in the leadoff spot than in other sports, certainly. It's not going to make some dramatic difference, however. And I agree that WAY too much emphasis is placed on the leadoff hitter. he's most important because he gets the most PAs. That's about 95% of it.
  7. rluzinski
    I'm not sure why any sport has to test for steroids. All they have to do is have the national media ask each player and the majority would't lie., right? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Lots and lots of MLB players have used steroids, so I don't understand this outrage over ARod. Something about it just seems phony. Be mad at the league for ignoring the issue for their own benefit. Be mad at professional athletes in general, for being willing to break the rules and the law to potentially make millions of dollars. Be mad at the human race. But to focus so much vitriol on one player.... It just seems like some people enjoy having a public figure of high social and/or financial status to tear to shreds. Sports leagues will have to continue to provide the strongest disinsentive to using banned sustances. Still, some athletes will use them and most will probably never be caught. That's just a fact of sports in the 21 century.
  8. rluzinski
    It is impossible to say whether this is a good deal or bad deal until we see what the contract is. While the Brewers obviously had a very weak back end the rotation, that wouldn't justify overspending for a guy like Looper. If it's a reasonable 1 or 2 year deal, great.
  9. rluzinski
    Physically, Prince is what he is. Everyone knew that his build could result in him having a relatively short career. He's short and has a huge father. In terms of present value, Price and Howard are close to equal.
  10. rluzinski
    With regard to the NFL strategy being unnecessarily complicated, I think someone has been playing too much Maddon. With regard to baseball, how much more sophisticated is the strategy employed in the MLB, compared to highschool baseball? I'm sure there are differences but how significant (honest question since I never played above little league). When I played highschool football, I had to memorize 100's of offensive and defensive plays, plus learn the proper in-play strategies and what we did doesn't even BEGIN to compare to what players in the NFL have to do. Baseball just seems so much more structured compared to football. The most interesting strategic part of baseball is pitch selection, IMO. Unfortunately, I don't think the average fan, watching a game on TV, can accurately identify pitch selections. It's hard for any fan do notice that part of the game in person. I hope that we aren't far off from having all telecasts include pitch FX information (pitch velocity, movement and location). That and speeding the damn game up would go a long way. How exciting would football be if they had unlimited timeouts? That's basically the MLB.
  11. rluzinski
    A random google sent me to this article and it made me very sad: http://sports.espn.go.com...ction=magazine&id=3773521
  12. rluzinski
    Signing a 4.4 ERA pitcher to a 1 year/$10 mil deal is roughly comparable, I would think. I assume Melvin yould have signed them to a multiyear deal, though, so it's not really the same thing. Where most of the disagreement seems to stem from on this topic is in measuring the value of Cam's offensive. Despite his relatively low BA and high strikeout numbers, he's still a decent hitter.
  13. rluzinski
    Signing a 4.4 ERA pitcher to a 1 year/$10 mil deal is roughly comparable, I would think. I assume Melvin yould have signed them to a multiyear deal, though, so it's not really the same thing. Where most of the disagreement seems to stem from on this topic is in measuring the value of Cam's offensive. Despite his relatively low BA and high strikeout numbers, he's still a decent hitter.
  14. rluzinski
    Signing a 4.4 ERA pitcher to a 1 year/$10 mil deal is roughly comparable, I would think. I assume Melvin yould have signed them to a multiyear deal, though, so it's not really the same thing. Where most of the disagreement seems to stem from on this topic is in measuring the value of Cam's offensive. Despite his relatively low BA and high strikeout numbers, he's still a decent hitter.
  15. rluzinski
    FFIW, the CHONE projection system has him at a 6.03 ERA for next season. They project him to have a bad K rate and a mediocre walk rate. He has a really low HR rate and BABIP in the minors last year and CHONE doesn't see that repeating in the majors. of course, you get what you pay for and I'll take any young arm when it costs next to nothing.
  16. rluzinski
    Rluz, do you have the statistics on how much a good CF can lower the team ERA with his defense. If people saw that stat, they might appreciate Cameron more. It's usually presented as plays saved or runs saved over an average defender per so many starts. UZR had Cam at 13.3 runs saved/150 starts last year: http://www.fangraphs.com/...playerid=1070&position=OF I don't think he projects to do as well this year defensively or offensively as last year, but he still projects to be roughly worth his salary. I don't understand why some are acting like CF is a prime position for the Brewers to save some money. Cam no longer has gold glove defense but he's worlds better than any other alternative right now.
  17. rluzinski
    Rluz, do you have the statistics on how much a good CF can lower the team ERA with his defense. If people saw that stat, they might appreciate Cameron more. It's usually presented as plays saved or runs saved over an average defender per so many starts. UZR had Cam at 13.3 runs saved/150 starts last year: http://www.fangraphs.com/...playerid=1070&position=OF I don't think he projects to do as well this year defensively or offensively as last year, but he still projects to be roughly worth his salary. I don't understand why some are acting like CF is a prime position for the Brewers to save some money. Cam no longer has gold glove defense but he's worlds better than any other alternative right now.
  18. rluzinski
    Rluz, do you have the statistics on how much a good CF can lower the team ERA with his defense. If people saw that stat, they might appreciate Cameron more. It's usually presented as plays saved or runs saved over an average defender per so many starts. UZR had Cam at 13.3 runs saved/150 starts last year: http://www.fangraphs.com/...playerid=1070&position=OF I don't think he projects to do as well this year defensively or offensively as last year, but he still projects to be roughly worth his salary. I don't understand why some are acting like CF is a prime position for the Brewers to save some money. Cam no longer has gold glove defense but he's worlds better than any other alternative right now.
  19. rluzinski
    There are lot's of players that consistently perform better in the second half of the season? I've never heard of that and suspect it's mostly just a coin flip proposition. Weeks' college numbers should be ignored when trying to project him for 2009, IMO. He has enough major league ABs to make his college performance basically irrelevant.
  20. rluzinski
    If all Sheets can get is a 1 year deal with little guaranteed money, there are probably several teams that would offer that right now, the Brewers included. Sheets may still be a month or more away from accepting such a deal, however. I (and apparently Sheets and his agent) think that he can do better than that, though. He may have to give up on a a multiyear deal but she should still be able to get a nice chunk of guaranteed money.
  21. rluzinski
    Maybe Cameron is overpayed by $1-2 mil but he projects to be a bit above average 2009. No current possible replacement would even be close to average. I just don't see that Yankee deal making the Brewers better in 2009, even if they did pay all of Cam's salary. 3B and the backend of the rotation will be the major weakness of this team. Even 85 wins might be tough, IMO.
  22. rluzinski
    Maybe Cameron is overpayed by $1-2 mil but he projects to be a bit above average 2009. No current possible replacement would even be close to average. I just don't see that Yankee deal making the Brewers better in 2009, even if they did pay all of Cam's salary. 3B and the backend of the rotation will be the major weakness of this team. Even 85 wins might be tough, IMO.
  23. rluzinski
    Maybe Cameron is overpayed by $1-2 mil but he projects to be a bit above average 2009. No current possible replacement would even be close to average. I just don't see that Yankee deal making the Brewers better in 2009, even if they did pay all of Cam's salary. 3B and the backend of the rotation will be the major weakness of this team. Even 85 wins might be tough, IMO.
  24. rluzinski
    I think the integrity of baseball was ruined when they stopped allowing batters to call for a high or low pitch. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif As my previous post achnowledged, I realize a significant portion of the baseball fanbase think the game is perfect the way it is. I happen to disagree strongly but I realize the chance of any major rule change is remote. I'm just glad that my next favorite sport (football) allows itself to evolve as needed.
  25. rluzinski
    I wouldn't mind if they did this in the majors, (for regular season games), starting with the 11th inning, or something along those lines. The fact that a significant number of fans leave extra inning games should tell you how exciting the current format is. I know, MLB isn't allowed to change rules. It's was perfected 90 years ago! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
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