rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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If I were Melvin, I'd offer Manny 2/$80 mil, with it all being defered until 2209. Since the media just ignores the time value of money, it would be great publicity.
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From RS and RA, use the Pythagorean theorem to calculate their winning % against an average team. Then use the LOG5 uquation: http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm For a specific game, you'll want to adjust for home/away and starting pitchers, at the very least.
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As far as I can tell, the notion that the Brewers offense struggles against any segment of the bad/inexperiences starting pitchers is a myth. Also, if we want to analyze the Brewers' prospects for this series, we have to consider offense, defense and the bullpen. Collectively, that's much more important that the starting pitcher.
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Kendall to rest more often this season
rluzinski replied to Ennder's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm glad to see this but I think some people are going to be disappointed with Rivera's stick. He should have decent power but may struggle to have even a .300 OBP. Of course, the offensive bar for a backup catcher isn't set very high. -
I have no doubt that he'll be able to put his Cubs fandom aside and pretend to root for the Brewers with all his heart. And I don't claim to either represent the majority nor do I think my perspective is the "right" one. I simply have immensely enjoyed listening to Powell and Bob root for the Brewers and I won't be able to have that same kind of enjoyment with this new guy. It's not personal, it's just the way it is. If I am in the extreme minority and this guy turns out to be a great announcer, 620 will have made a great choice. Can't make everyone happy.
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So first we get Wayne Larravee, Mr Bear for a couple decades. Now we get an Ill native, who's worked for the Cubs for many years himself? He may be a great announcer but I expect a healthy dose of genuine homerism during my radio Brewer broadcasts and there is no way this guy can give me that. Fair or not, I'm never going to believe him when his voice indicates excitement over a Brewer play. Can you imagine when he's calling a Brewer/Cubs game? I can't wait! I basically can't stand listening to the broadcast on TV but always loved the radio broadcast. This is very disappointing.
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Bill Hall out 4-6 Weeks with left calf tear
rluzinski replied to PaulRigdon's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
They also mention that he is pretty low upside with a translated EQA of .241 and that he doesn't have big platoon splits so doesn't make a natural platoon player. Gamel also does not have big platoon splits. Gamel has only 446 AB against lefties in the minors. Mcgehee has something like 750. According to "The Book", major leaguers need something like a minimum of 1000 AB against lefties before their personal splits would be more predictive than just assuming a league average split (I could be remembering this incorrectly). Considering there's even more undercertaintly with mineo league stats, I would be comfortable making any assumptions about their expected platoon splits. -
http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/billreaper.png
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Vinny's value to any MLB team will be his ability to play multiple positions. It's almost as if the Brewers hurt his development at other positions by placing him at catcher all year. If Rottino could be looked at as a true catcher by other clubs, that would make him much more valuable. I can only assume that he's not viewed as a catcher, however.
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Bill Hall out 4-6 Weeks with left calf tear
rluzinski replied to PaulRigdon's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The bar isn't exactly set very high at 3B, so Gamel could be the best option and still not be very good. I'm not in favor of starting his service clock for a marginal upgrade. If the Brewers could buy out a year or two of free agency, yes, it won't probably matter. Of course, if Gamel is any good by then, they probably won't be able to. They won't get that year back from Hardy. -
A purely statistical based projection certainly isn't going to capture all the information about a player. That's were scouting and other information comes in. Completely dismissing what a scout brings to the table is about as absurd as claiming a statistical projection is worthless.
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However the statistical annomally, the fact he was chasing a record, and he was teammates with an admitted steroid user doesn't just make Hank Aaron doing steroids a possibility but in my opinion it is probable. Probable? As in above 50% chance?
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Who could we get for Corey Hart?
rluzinski replied to Darnell Junior's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think the point is, no one calls CC an innings eater, because he's good. I don't completely dismiss the value of a mediocre starting pitcher being able to go deeper into games. It's just that, you don't want most mediocre pitchers going deep into games because you probably have better alternatives in the pen by then. -
Good. Beat it then. Sometimes, I think players forget how much they wanted to play professional baseball one day. The decision to part ways is mutual between Sheets and the Brewers. It's business. ------------------------------------- Moderator note... closed in favor of new thread: Sheets Watch III: Sheets training in Arlington? The new thread has been added to the Designated Threads List. -------------------------------------
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And while the notion of protection is a popular thing to talk about in baseball, there's little evidence of it's existence. A power hitter's walks may go up a little without protection but that's not necessarily a bad thing! Lineup construction is a lot of fun to think and talk about. Unfortunately , simulations show that any reasonable lineup will yield about the same runs as a an optimized one. While I'm sure that sims don't account for every variable, it's doubtful that it's blind to some signicant effect. I wish it was. You do want to split up your lefties, however.
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Chone projection: http://www.baseballprojection.com/greenni3378.htm I'll take it...
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I don't see the point in pretending Bonds didn't hit the most HRs in the majors. He did. If he did it with the aid of steroids, let history judge him.
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I think your best bet would be to maximize their AB and bat them both as high in the order as possible. There will be times when their strikeouts will hurt you but on the balance, it largely balances out, I don't think.
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I likes the book enough (even if it was at least 50% fiction) but how does this translate into a movie?
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Mobile compatible version?
rluzinski replied to Invader3K's topic in Brewer Fanatic Issues & Suggestions
i have a windows mobile device and while I have some insane amount of vertical scrolling to have to deal with, I can reply just fine. -
Projection formulas are a waste of time...period. They have too many confounding variables to be scientific by nature. You never know when a CC will throw the team on his back or when Sheets will pull something or the effect it has on a bullpen, blah, blah, blah. It is the butterfly wing that creates a hurricane...silly and useless. 30 years ago WHIP and SLG% were pretty rare. Their usefulness pans out rationally. This is where pocket GMs tell me the full extent of their inexperience...proceed. I am happy to learn from you. What do you suggest a GM should use when considering a midseason trade or off season pickup? What is the better alternative? Something must be used, no?
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Looper is likely about a 1-1.5 win improvement over McClung. Better than what the Brewers had but given the available pitchers this offseason not really exciting. Just like CC was a 1.5-2 win improvement over the other starter Milwaukee had last year. That was the stat thrown out last year and I think we all saw how utterly useless that was. I guess we should project Looper to have a 1.65 ERA for 2009? Sounds like a great way to judge this pickup! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Think about what you are suggesting with that kind of logic. Projections give you the best guess at an average expected performance. That's what GMs have to concern themselves with when considering signings and trades. After that, anything can happen. Looper is projected to have something like a 4.75 ERA for 2009. McClung had a decent shot to be much worse as a starter. For a 1 year, $4.75 mil, this is a very good pickup.
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"All I know is that I watched too many games last season where the 5th or 6th inning came around, Bush was in the 90 pitch range, and started falling apart. At this point Ned should have yanked him but didn't, and he ended up giving up multiple runs and blowing games." This is a common criticism fans have of just about all mangers. It's true that starting pitchers generally lose effectiveness the deeper they get into games. And for a mediocre pitcher like Bush, there probably is no need to let him go 100+ pitches very often. But your memory seems to be failing you with regard to Bush being more susceptible to a late game collapse. In fact, it appears that the opposite was true in 2008: http://www.baseball-refer...amp;year=2008#situa-innng Bush basically dominated in the 6th and 7th last year. Some fans just have this notion that managers should immediately pull mediocre pitchers if even one base runner reaches after 5 innings. And any run given up by a mediocre starting pitcher after the 5th is a run that could have been saved, the theory seems to go. But if you effectively limit your 3-5 pitchers to 5 inning starts, you'll be giving up plenty of 6th inning runs because your bullpen is going to die.
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If I was a manger, I'd instruct my batters to swing and the good pitches and take the bad ones. It amazes me that no other manager has thought of this. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
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Like I said, I have no doubt that a person can come up wth reasonable player or team projection in minutes. Those projections may even be "almost as good" as the more in-depth ones you can find at BP and other places. To claim they are "as good" is not really something that makes much sense to me, however. And projections are not just based on a simply "best-fit" type philosophy. At the minimum, they need to regress their numbers and adjust for age. Those are two things many people won't do with their eyeball estimates. Many also attempt to incorporate park factors. These adjustments may only yield a small improvement in their system but over time, they will have more accurate predictions as a result. And I wasn't inferring that projections should be measured in terms of standard deviations or anything like that. I was just illustrating that even the perfect projection system can look wrong for any given year. That gives some the impression that a reasonable guess could be just as good, when that just isn't the case.