rluzinski

And Webb is going to win 30 games and Chipper will bat .400. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif CC has 9 or 10 starts left. Something on the side of optimistically realistc might be 6-2, to finish 12-2. I see him about 6th in the Cy Young vote.

Good thing the bullpen is rested, Sheeter is going tonight. Let's not get all crazy now. Sheets was lifted a couple times lately for a pinch hitter, when he had at least another inning left in him. That's what often happens to a starter if his offense isn't scoring runs. I'm leaving you so you can spend more time with April - she treated you much better than I could ever. Not really directing this at you but for all the concern people have shown with regard to Sheets lately, you'd think he has been god awful lately. He had 28 SO and 9 BB in 29 July IP. That's very good. Batters just had a .319 BA against him, which doesn't concern me nearly as much. As long as Sheets doesn't go out there thinking he can throw 95 or 96 all game, he should be fine tonight.

Counsell update: .228/.319/.305/.624 (187 PA) With another RHer going tonight, I look forward to our starting 3B having a SLG under .300 by the end of the game. Yes, I'm still bitter.

OK BCU, I'll bet you a $20 donation to Brewerfan.net that the wildcard runner up will have 86 or more wins. Deal? It's a win/win for me, since if you are right, it would almost HAVE to be the Brewers. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Great, the Counsell walk just guaranteed about 3 more starts.

Why is he playing at 3rd? Seems like if anything, he should be in there for Weeks, who also has a low contact rate and stinks defensively. If Yost has decided to go with Counsell against Rhers at 2B, it wouldn't be hard to put up a very good argument for that being the correct move. At 3B? Terrible.

Our new #6 hitter is 0 for his last 11?

Brian just said Counsell is in because Ned wants a "contact hitter in the lineup." It's just an odd notion to have about a guy who has an OBP of .324 since 2006. If Counsell bunted for an out, every AB, would that 100% contact rate excite Yost even more?

Craig Counsell: 2008: .232/.321/.311/.632 Since 2005: .238/.324/.326/.651 Last 2 starts: 0 for 9 Starting at 3B again today.

I just wish someone in the media would at least ask for Yost's rationale for starting Counsell at 3B on a regular basis. I just want to hear him say "quality AB" one time, so I can puncture my frontal lobe with the claw of a carpenters' hammer and put myself out of my misery. And no, I don't have some hatred for Counsell. I just think he's a very bad option to play 3B.

I think 86 wins will be enough to win the wild card....just my opinion, but I don't think anyone other than the Brewers and Cubs will be 10 games over .500 by the end of the year in the NL I'd love to take that bet. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Vegas gives the Brewers about a 74% of winning this one. It doesn't get much more lopsided than that and the Nats still have a 1 in 4 shot of winning. 26% chance of BF.net falling into mass chaos for about the 20th time this season. Considering those Vegas odds and the pitching matchups, here's my very rough guesses at the win probabilities for 4 games this series: 74%, 72%, 68%, 63% Do those look reasonable? That results in these series probabilities: swept: 1% win 1: 8% win 2: 27% win 3: 41% sweep: 23% Those are some crazy good odds for the Brewers and the Nats still have about a 1 in 3 shot chance of splitting or winning the series. Of course, that means the Brewers have a 2 in 3 shot at winning the 4 game set.

What % of their baserunners have the Twins scored?

(LOB is one of those stats that people love to use but don't understand. Generally, higher scoring offenses have the higher LOB, contrary to what Tom H and everyone else suggests. Also, the type of offense matters has well. Like you pointed out, a high SLG, low OBP, like the Brewers, are going to have a lower LOB. That doesn't mean they are better, of course. A team with a .800 BA, .800 OBP and .800 would score a millions runs but have an insanely high number of LOB. Does that make them a bad offense? LOB also rewards teams that ground into double plays and make outs on the basepaths. Does that make any sense? You want to know how efficient a team is at scoring baserunners? Look at the % of them that have scored. # baseruners = TBR = H + BB + HBP + ROE (reached on error) + CI (catchers interference) Score% = (TBR - Runs) / TBR I haven't verified this but I think you will find that high SLG teams will beat out small ball teams easily.

And since you brought it up, just because you're 5'9" and fat as hell doesn't make you some kind of MMA tough guy. Maybe Fielder could beat up Manny Parra. Maybe not. Maybe Gabe Kapler or Corey Hart is the baddest dude in the Brewers clubhouse, we don't know. Fat does not equal bad ass. I think what Fielder did was completely wrong but the guy is naturally silly strong, so I'm pretty sure I wouldn't take straw man Hart, straight up. Kapler would be too busy kissing his pecs to fight anyone.

i agree about CC not being on mosts' radar. I also think a guy like Driver probably beats every Brewer. The Brewers have made huge strides statewide but they ain't won nothing yet.

To echo kramnoj, K rate and BB rate are the foundation for any pitcher. And since they don't depend on the defense, you can use a relatively small sample to gauge both. BAA is just too dependant on the fielders and luck. Sure, after 3,000 innings, it tells you something but you usually don't have that luxury for most pitchers. For quick and dirty, use FIP or xFIP (basically DIPS). FIP includes HR rate, xFIP assumes a league average HR/FB rate. Both can be found at hardballtimes: =2]http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/?view=pitching&league_filter[]=2

Branyan's s bug me with a runner at 3B and less then 2 outs. Counsell's weak groundballs bug me when they result in a double play. And Al, you really need to stop saying that Counsell has a good OBP. The last three years he's had OBs of .327, .323 and .321. Only once in the last 6 seven seasons has he had an OBP over .330! we should not expect him to get on base anymore than Branyan, going forward.

There's a very good chance that game #162 won't even matter, so I wouldn't worry about Sheets penciled in there. And I don't see the problem CC or Sheets pitching every 5 days for the rest of the year. A CC start over Suppan is like 1.5 runs!

Anytime a fan looks at previous stats to take a guess at future expected performance, they are trying to do the same kind stuff projections do. Everyone uses projections! Many projection systems just use a more regimented and statistically sound methodolgy (no selective end points, adjust fo sample size, weigh more for more recent performances, etc...). What comes out of any statistical projection is only an estimate of true talent based on previous performance. As I've said many times here, that's just the start, not the end., No one will ever know a players exact talent level at any given moment. You want to adjust his projection because he picked up a wicked slider in the off season, that's your right. I may not agree with your projection but it's your subjective call to do as you wish. If you are reasonable about it, adding more information should only help your statistical projection. The fans did a great job with their projections at tangotiger.net because they had the statistical projections and lots more informaion those projections didn't have. Just don't say that projections tell us nothing because that's the same thing as saying that all the previous stats a player has accumulated tell us nothing. It's just a silly stance to take. If Counsell or Fielder is coming up to bat, I may not know what the exact outcome will be but I obviously know something about the situation. I don't think I can predict the exact outcome of a single AB, single game or even an entire season. The only people who make those kind of predictions are the blowhards on sports shows. I don't make predictions. Out of that entire post, I bet I didn't say one thing that I haven't said before. I'm sure many of the old timers know to ignore these kind of posts from me. I hope never have to write any of this again.

What's the old saying? Cut off your nose to spite your face?

I don't think Fielder's defense is even close to average and it doesn't help that he's only 5'11". If he doesn't have a .900 OPS with a good OBP, he might not even be average, overall. That's the problem with guys like Weeks and Durhan. They better have well above average offensive stats for a 2B or they are below average overall.

Trying something different until you find something that works is fine for some things. It doesn't really work in baseball, though, since it takes a lot more than a few starts to learn much (with regard to performance stats, at least.). That kind of thinking is what would have allowed Jeff Weaver to get starts this year. The only reason Bush made it through all of last season was because the Brewers knew he was better than his early starts suggested.

You can line it up so CC gets 11 more starts and still makes his last start on the reg. season on Friday. Sheets can also get 11 starts if needed, with the last start comimg on Sunday. There's a good change that game 162 won't matter, one way or another. That all assumes that Suppan is skipped 3 times, which he should be.

I think you are right that 90 wins is probably not going to do it. If you adjust for the Brewers' stength of schedule, they are on pace for something closer to 91 or 92 wins. Baseball Prospectus has their playoff Odds Report ( PECOTA), which pegs the Brewers for 91 wins and NL wilcard winner for an average of 91.6 wins. Their sim has the Brewers winning the wilcard about 57% of the time and the division 13.5%. 93 wins and the Brewers Would be in great shape.