I actually did a run distribution for the Mets and Brewers, and found that the Mets scored runs to both extremes (0 or 1 runs, 8 or more runs) more often than the Brewers, despite the fact that the Mets were a "small ball" team last year. I've done the same thing in the past and have found little difference myself. It's true that every run after 5 has less and less value. It's not true that a team that relies on the long ball is either feast or famine. The actual effect on runs/game differences from day to day is quite small. When the Brewers are hitting HRs, they are really fun to watch. When they aren't it's ugly. If the Brewers offense was rated on "fun to watch", they would easily be below average. With respect to winning games (runs/game), they are a bit above average. Now, I expected more from the Brewers offense this year, so I would certainly call them disappointing. I wouldn't call them below average, however.