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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    If we are talking dumb statistics, the larger the sample, the less luck/sample error and skill of your defense comes into play. Over 20,000 IP, I think it's fair to say that a pitcher's career BABIP represents his ability to suppress hits on balls-in-play very well. Over 200 innings, the skill part of the signal is just overwhelmed by all the noise. Now, if we are talking scouting information, that's a different story. I'd like to think that some professional scouts can gauge movement pretty well. Maybe they can't. I think if any fan thinks they can keep track of how 'hittable" a particular pitcher's pitches have been (beyond velocity) over the course of a season, I'm calling bull. I'd at least rely on something more objective, like pitch F/X data. It can see f a guy's fastball has lost some movement or if his curve has flattened out.
  2. rluzinski
    And when the Brewers were 4 games under, the team chemistry was terrible. Did winning a bunch of games improve it? I don't completely discount team chemistry but when you are winning games, it's hard to not enjoy going to work every day. Terribly over rated. Why is baseball always looking for anything to explain winning and losing BEFORE actual physical talent? I think compiling a group of players that are very good at playing the game of baseball is wayyyy more important than the thousands of other things I'm supposed to care about.
  3. rluzinski
    Russ, I understand what you are saying. However, isn't the more logical argument to take a K versus a BIP (not a BIP out)? A BIP will lead to more possibilities than just outs. I realize part of that is factored into OBP and SLG, but a K is still not equal to a BIP. From my previous post: "Now, if you are comparing a strikeout to a ball-in-play, strikeouts are very costly to a batter and very valuable to a pitcher." My first paragraph was in response to the "He is a career .900 OPS hitter but he strikes out too much!" theory.
  4. rluzinski
    Way late to this party but... For a batter, "strikeouts don't matter" in an average situation, compared to a ball-in-play out. With a runner at 3B and one out, the difference between a strikeout and ball-in-play out is significant. I wouldn't dare say a strikeout doesn't matter there. With a runner at 1B and 0 or 1 outs, a K is actually better on average. Compare the negative outs for each base/out situation: http://www.tangotiger.net/lwtsrobo.html What's the net result? It takes around 100 strikeouts in an average base/out situation to cost a team one run. if that sounds completely wrong to you, it's because you are valuaing the negative value of a strikeout more with respect to its lack of entertainment than anything else. Now, if you are comparing a strikeout to a ball-in-play, strikeouts are very costly to a batter and very valuable to a pitcher. You are basically comparing about a 30% chance of a hit to a 0% chance. And since a pitcher and batter's strikeout rate stabilizes much quicker than their BABIP, it's a great tool for trying to analyze a player's performance over a short period of time. There are stats that are more descriptive and stats that are more predictive. When you are talking about only 125 IP, K/9 and BB/9 do the best and predicting future performance. That said, there's nothing wrong with noting Bush's more descriptive stats. It's always interesting to see how a pitcher has found success. Just be careful assuming that that all types of success should be expected to continue equally.
  5. rluzinski
    Without running the numbers, the fundamental difference there was that there were already 2 outs and the play at home was the tying run in the 5th. Not saying it was the right or wrong move, though.
  6. rluzinski
    It's crazy how many still think "KKKammeron" is having a bad offensive year. Part of that is from relying on BA, the other part is just using the his first month of production to create an opinion of him. That reminds me, I hear that Kendall guy can really hit, now that he fixed his eyes! Could he really fetch $10M on the open market? Really? He's getting $10+mil from someone next year, yes. I think it's a forgone conclusion that his option gets picked up.
  7. rluzinski
    Isn't it the catcher who generally yells for the cut?
  8. rluzinski
    No, the point is to maximize the collevtive talent on the field within a certain budget. I have no doubt that the difference between Suppan and McClung's talents in terms of $ is less than $10 mil.
  9. rluzinski
    Legacy provided the initial numbers, when he estimated how often Hardy would have to be safe to justy Svuem sending him. I did the same thing but realized that since a throw to 3B results in an out almost every time, Svuem needs to know how often a catcher is going to that route. Basically, Svuem picked the worst situation to try and take that extra base. It was a 0-0, 1st inning game, so that run at home had no extra value towards winning. In contrst, in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, you'd always send the runner. Furthermore, there were no outs and the heart of the order was coming up, so the out was more costly and the baserunner more valuable. It seems like most ML catchers know this but Svuem and Yost doesn't.
  10. rluzinski
    The run expectency numbers I provided considered the base situation, the out situation and whether a run would be scored. It suggests that unless the catcher is waiting (with the ball) for the runner to get to him, so he can make the sure out at home, he should just throw to 3B and take his 90% chance of an out there.
  11. rluzinski
    Yount, since you think everything averages out, why not list the run support Sheets has gotten from 2004 to the present? ESPN lhas it. Got it? Now look at Sheets' RA (not ERA) over that same period. Finally, put Sheets' win% next to that. Repeat that for all the true aces you listed and let me know what you learn. I haven't done it myself, so if the results aren't what I suspect they will be, I'll happily eat crow. But if I'm right, we can all finally agree that fan perception doesn't always consider very important information and should not be trusted without first seeing if it agrees with reality. I can't wait!
  12. rluzinski
    I think Weeks has an above average stick for his position but he's so bad defensively there that it really is irrelevant. I don't think Durham is any better, though. I'd be fine with the Brewers exploring other options in 2009.
  13. rluzinski
    I just don't think Prince has been good at defense or ever will be good at defense. Not every guy has every skill. Its been said even before Prince was in the majors.... he's destined to be a DH.
  14. rluzinski
    All a number one type starting pitcher has to be is among the top 30 starters in the league. Sheets is easily that. Once you start trying to define what a "true ace" is, it usually just becomes romantically subjective. "He's the kind of guy that get's you the win when you need it!" When? Always? No matter what? Huh? Give me some numbers. What era defines an ace? If you care about distribution, how often should an ace give up 8 or less runs in x or more innings? Don't tell me an aces find ways to wins with 0 runs scored by his offense and don't tell me an ace is so good that none actually exist. And none of this big game stuff, either. It's just some made up thing to prove something you think is already true. Give me something to test.
  15. rluzinski
    Using run expectency from the perspective of the catcher and assuming the out at 3B is a sure one (defined as only needing a good throw and tag, which might be 90%), this what I get: Conceed runner to 3B and get out at home: 1.5 runs Conceed run at plate for 90?% chance at 3B: 1.06 runs Breakeven = 71% So unless the catcher thinks he has over a 71% of getting the runner out at the plate (which is VERY high), he should just throw to 3B. Of course, that means that the 3B coach shouldn't have sent him in the first place! So, the catcher is generally right for taking the free out at 3B and the 3B coach is always wrong for trying to take the extra base at 3rd. Either I screwed this up royally or the average 3B coach in the majors is ignorant of these numbers, since they say the risk isn't worth it.
  16. rluzinski
    So in games that Yount subjevtively cherry picks as having more significance than others (3 games apparently), Sheets is 0-3. What is that supposed to prove exactly? What is your criteria again? Going up against an elite starter and getting bad run support? How many of those games does any pithcer win in that situation!? Just another example of people setting the bad unrealistically high.
  17. rluzinski
    Why do you keep bringing up that bunt, like it decided the game? If it had been a DP, it would have been at least worth mentioning. As it was, It was basically irrelvent. And Sheets has been pulled from at least 3 games this half when he could have gone another inning. That's partly because of some shaky outings and partly because his run support had been bad.
  18. rluzinski
    It's been linjuries for the last year years. Before that, he wasplaying on a terrible team. Prior to 2004, he wasn't anything special. Yes, I think he will win 13+ games, provided he stays healthy and starts getting run support again.
  19. rluzinski
    Maybe the offense can pretend CC is pitchig, so Sheets doesn't have to be perfect to get the win? Kapler has filled in admirably but that Kapler/Counsell lineup isn't even average, IMO.
  20. rluzinski
    I can not stand the guy as an announcer but he's always seemed like a good guy to have a couple drinks with. Maybe he can quit the TV gig and become the ambassador for the Brewers.? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  21. rluzinski
    Signing any 30 year old pitcher with a lot of innings to a 4 year year deal is risky. I'm fine with a team never doing it. That said, I don't think that Sheets' odds of missing significant time going forward is much worse than the average 30 year old starting pitcher. I'm sure that there will be plenty of other teams that will agree.
  22. rluzinski
    That's why teams don't set their rotation off the results of the previous month. Any analysis that labels Sheets as the #4 pitcher isn't even worth considering. I would much prefer CC not pitching in blow out games and picking up an extra start. Same goes for Sheets, if they feel he could handle the extra 7 IP. CC and Sheets are way ahead of the rest of the rotation. It isn't even close.
  23. rluzinski
    That's probably the problem. CC is lobbying Yost to basically throw 130 pitches every start if he needed to, in order to get the complete game. Maybe he could do it or maybe he couldn't. The thing is, he doesn't NEED to, so why find out?
  24. rluzinski
    I'd rather skip Suppan once and get an extra start from CC than get 20 extra pitches in a blowout.
  25. rluzinski
    How about that we've all seen this pen give up what should have been wins before. This was a SEVEN run lead. Can anyone here honestly say they feel comfortable with Mota or Gagne on the mound with any kind of lead? SEVEN run lead. You could put Jeff Cirillo out there and he will secure the win 95% of the time.
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