rluzinski
-
Posts
9,362 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings
Milwaukee Brewers Videos
2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project
2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by rluzinski
-
The Pirates can have the no hitter if the Brewers get the win.
-
The Pirates can have the no hitter if the Brewers get the win.
-
Weeks' 1st inning single today was his 6th hit in a row and the 7th consecutive PA that he reached base. He then was hit by a pitch, to make it 8 consecutive PA's of reaching. Alas, he struck out and grounded out in his next two ABs. The start of a new trend?
-
Wow. My point should be painfully obvious; "analyzing" small samples for "trends" is a waste of time.
-
Bright side: Well, our offense (who will all largely be returning next year) continues to have a nice year. The bullpen can go away. You want to ignore it for whatever reason but the trend started a couple of months ago.
-
Weeks is now 5 for 5 today, with 3 singles and 2 doubles. Updated trend from last 6 PA: 1.000/1.000/1.400/2.400 His 20 game trend: .269/.345/.397/.742 Hey may still get one more PA today. Stay tuned!
-
Rickie with 5 hits... so far this game. Wow
-
That's why intentionally walking the bases loaded is a bad idea, even with a 2-0 count.
-
It mind sound silly but I really wish Wolf was pitching right now.
-
Marcum gets pulled after 4. Hurt?
-
Weeks has now reached base in 4 consecutive PA, including three hits so far today Is that a new trend? I don't think Lucroy would be a bad option to bat 2nd, compared to Weeks. I just think your analysis does a poor job of supporting it. You came up with a conclusion and are now simply cherry picking whatever data you think supports it. I don't care about Braun's RBI numbers or 20 game splits. I don't care what Weeks has batted this year in certain lineup positions. I want to know what rate stats we would expect from both players going forward based on whatever relevant data is available. Everything else takes care of itself. EDIT: Weeks is now 4 for 4 today and was reached base on 5 consecutive PA's. Let's look at the trend from those last 5 PA's: 1.000/1.000/1.250/2.250 Perhaps the real question should be, is it time for Weeks to bat lead off?
-
Come on and win.... could be only 4 games under. Ahhhh, having flashbacks of being a Brewer fan in the early 2000's.
-
I think it's largely a myth. The people who repeat it here have never provided a shred of evidence to support it, at least. I recall seeing a table showing strikes thrown as a function of batting order. I thought #2 guys saw something like an extra strike every 8 AB, or something like that. Whatever the numbers were, I recall it being very small.
-
"Current trends" is largely statistical noise, so if you are considering that to any meaningful degree, your expectations for that player are going to be distorted. Unless a slump is the result of an injury, I ignore short term fluctuation in performance completely. Comprehensive studies shows us that it is the correct thing to do. High school level math even. I don't rely on just career numbers but that is a good place to start, especially when the alternative being offered is a selected sample of 38 PA. The best way to start the discussion is to simply look at projections, however. I say start because I don't mean to suggest there is nothing else to consider. Projections typically consider the last 3-4 years of production weighing the more recent seasons more greater. Here are the ZiPS updated projections for Weeks and Lucroy: Weeks: .238/.333/.436 Lucroy: .268/.330 /.415 No crystal ball here of course, but it's an objective way to look at all the data. Now, if you think Lucroy has established a much higher level of expected performance based on his excellent 238 PA this year, you are going to think that projection for him is bogus. I think that projection (and Weeks') is reasonable. And if they really are that similar, I would rather have a little more speed and power at the top of the lineup (power at the top because he'll get more AB up there).
-
Another start for ransom at 3B. I really hope it's Green getting those spot starts at 3B very soon.
-
I think there's no question that a previous recent injury does increase the probability of a future injury. The question is, by how much? Also, even the most durable starting pitchers are not going to project to have 220+ inings. Sabathia had averaged 234 IP the previous 3 years and still "only" had a ZiPS projected IP of 218. I'd like to think you could pencil Marcum in for 175 IP for 2013 but perhaps 150 IS more reasonable. I really don't know.
-
Yeh, I'm just going to root for getting to .500
-
38 AB, huh? Weeks has a career OBP of .350 OBP and a .355 OBP over the last 2 months. He's had a terrible year and still has a .325 OBP for the season. Lucroy is the only other reasonable option there and he's not much of an OBP guy himself.
-
I thought Gallardo clearly established himself as the ace last year, before clearly un-establishing himself as the ace earlier this year. Now he is clearly the ace again? None of this is very clear to me. Gallardo is already under contract through 2015 if the team wants him. I see no good reason to extend that further.
-
I will 17th the claim that getting put on waivers is no big deal.
-
The Dodgers may have more money than most teams but it's still finite. Even if they had wads of money to blow, I find it difficult to believe that this is the best they could do with it. Some discussion at insidethebook.com: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/what_does_250mm_buy_you/#comments
-
If you are telling me there are 12 center fielders with better range than Gomez, I put zero stock into that stat. Some of the numbers and stats that are brought up here are just poppycock in my opinion. Range Factor is in now way a "Sabermetric" stat, so please don't try to lump it in with any advanced metrics.
-
I'm still rooting for the improbable run to get the Brewers back to .500 by the end of the season. I know it isn't rational but it at least keeps me mildly interested in the rest of the season. they are now 7 games under despite scoring 8 more runs than they've given up on the season. Just crazy. Statistically, Loe had a very good chance of getting Soriano out in that situation, probably better than 70%. Loe is a decent reliever, doesn't walk a ton of guys, had the platoon advantage and has had great success against righties in his career. Sounds like a decent matc hup. A lot of managers do a lot of things that are not always the best decisions. All I'm telling you is based on current studies, having the inning start with three hits does not predictive future failure for the pitcher. Despite the terrible start to the inning, Loe struck out the next two batters swinging. You seem to now be conceding that there was little chance a reliever was ready to go after the three hits but after the subsequent 2 strikeouts and a walk, it was STILL obvious that Loe should have been pulled? It all just sounds so.... silly. Sure, if I could choose any Brewer reliever in that situation, I might have picked someone else, but RR doesn't have that luxury.
-
Gomez and his HRs are starting to get very interesting. Too bad the Brewers only have his rights for one more year. 1. If you are considering how often the bullpen has blown a lead when deciding if Loe should be pulled there, I believe you are being silly. 2. I will ask again, was any other reliever even ready to go? It's video game mentality to assume another reliever is always available.
-
Loe gave up three quick hits. Plenty of managers stick with their relievers in that situation simply because another option is generally not warmed up and ready to go. Was this the exception? Also, why is everyone convinced that another reliever would have been the better option anyway? It was the 6th inning. You would have seen the bottom of the barrel relieving Loe there. You guys are being silly, IMO.