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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Nothing much new added but here's the blog post: http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2008/07/brewers-struggle-against-bad-pitchers.html
  2. rluzinski
    I was talking about having 10 good games in a row followed by 10 bad games, instead of mixing the good and bad ones up. As for the streakiness you are talking about, I don't even see the big deal with that. Have a mediocre game every day vs being great half the time and bad the other? I doubt it has any meaningful effect on total wins. It just annoys the fans because they lose faith in a player if he has a bad week.
  3. rluzinski
    Cam's OBP is a little lower than his projection but his SLG is higher. He's been as valuable offensively as his projections said he would be, just in a little different way. He's certainly doing better than last year. Hard for me to be disappointed in that.
  4. rluzinski
    Branyan's offensive value is tied to his walks and HR's. I doubt he get's into walk slumps more than any other player. But because HRs are a relatively scarse event, it has a greater chance of randomly bunching than a slap-happy singles hitter. As a result, the offensive value from game to game is going to be more uneven. And to that I say, who cares? If Branyan hits a HR in four consecutive games then doesn't hit one for 2 weeks, how does that win less games? If someone can answer that question, I might be more apt to not dismiss someone when they complain of a player being streaky. In terms of wins and losses, I think it matters little.
  5. rluzinski
    Is your problem that the rosters are too big, or just that they've actually played in the game? My problem is with having crappy players being All Stars. Part of that is having replacements for replacements still being considered All Stars. The other part is requiring every team to have an All Star. When Guzman can be a two time All Star, how much of an accomplishment can it be to go? It's like being picked for Dodge Ball in grade school. Stick around long enough and eventually someone will grudgingly call your name. But hey, I'm not getting all worked up about it. I usually don't even watch the game. But for whatever reason, I got suckered into 15 innings of it this go around, though. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Lame throw by Hart. What percentage of outfielders record an out there on one try? 10%?
  6. rluzinski
    Man, a little better throw by Hart would have had him. Not how I wanted this game to end.
  7. rluzinski
    I'm sorry but it's really hard ot take this seriously when I'm forced to root for "All Star Christian Guzman" to get a hit. Half the league has played in this game.
  8. rluzinski
    YAAAWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNN! Would they give it to the NL because the AL ran out of pitchers? The AL would be forfeiting, so yes.
  9. rluzinski
    You won't have to worry about the fans revolting if it's a tie. There won't be anyone left. The stadium is maybe half full right now?
  10. rluzinski
    At least we get to see Hart again in the 16th.
  11. rluzinski
    The way this is gong, Hart is going to have two more chances to get the game winning hit. Crazy. Both Kinsler and Navarro were safe. Kinlser for sure but the side view showed that the tag might have been applied to Navarro's foot.
  12. rluzinski
    I'm all for the tie. Just play the first WS game at a neutral site. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  13. rluzinski
    He's doing exactly what he was expected to do? Defensively maybe, but I'm not so sure about offensively. Preseason ZiPs projection: .254/.341/.447 Actual: .231/.320/.481 So, his OBP is 21 points lower than his projection but his SLG is .34 points higher. Roughly speaking, that's a wash. The key is not to get hung up on BA, as its value is already represented in both OBP and SLG (added to them both on a 1 to 1 basis).
  14. rluzinski
    There are many versions out there. For simplicity, I would just use Jame's' pythagorean: EXPECTED WIN% = RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2)
  15. rluzinski
    And that's why I hate doing these kind of studies. Very rarely do I find evidence that supports a theory that many accept as fact but would make the Brewers a grossly atypical team for unknown reasons. And even when I do find that common sentiment is correct, it's often (although not always) caused just by random variance (as evidenced by the fact that the odd phenomenon melts away in the increasing sample size). Not much to gain overall, as those who believe this kind of stuff absolutely are generally not swayed by such things as statistical evidence. The only reason I was motivated in this case was because I had a buddy scoff at my request to see proof of the bad pitcher theory. I didn't even say he was wrong, only that I was skeptical. The proof, he said, was in the fact that every Brewer fan knew that it was true. Even a Brewer employee knew it ... the elevator operator!!! Sorry, I need more than that.
  16. rluzinski
    Doug, Of the 19 games started against opossing pitchers with a projected ERA over, 4.75, 9 finished with a game ERA of over 5 and 10 with ERAs under 5. Granted, it was either feast or famine against there guys but it all pretty much balances out as you would expect.
  17. rluzinski
    I'm sure the average is weighted by # games.
  18. rluzinski
    When we are talking about positional players, the hot hand theory is almost a complete myth. If you think Councell should be expected to continue hitting well above his career norms in the short trem, I would love to take that bet.
  19. rluzinski
    Instead of showing all those columns , all you really need to show is opponent win% and pythagorean record, IMO.
  20. rluzinski
    all I'm saying is Counsell is at least an average leaf-off hitter against Righties. Counsell is a terrible hitter against anyone. You have to start narrowing your search to a very small sample to come to any other conclusion.
  21. rluzinski
    Delarosa has the worst projection out of the entire bunch. I'm not going to remove him because he can throw hard with the wrong hand while sucking. I hope this doesn't turn into a cherry picking exercise, where someone says, "Yeh, but if you only look at pitchers who are x, y, z, the Brewers suck against all bad pitchers!" That's not being objective. That's fishing for a desired conclusion.
  22. rluzinski
    The Cubs' opponents have a combined pthygorean win% of something like .487. That's a 79 win team. That's basically identical to the Brewers. Couple that with the small difference in opponent win% and it's basically a tie. This is why you don't use "with a winning record" splits. It just too course. EDIT: I forgot to say, great work, zzzman. Thanks for the hard work.
  23. rluzinski
    I'm still tinkering with my spreadsheet and haven't checked ANY of the results for accuracy yet, but I'm ready to give out a taste of my findings. I am comparing the Brewers' performance against each starter to that pitcher's rough, up to date projection. The projection is something like 60% 2008 Marcels (projections from before the season started) and 40% current season ERA (although the exact weight takes into account how many IP each pitcher has this year). He's my preliminary list of "crappy pitchers" (pitchers with a projected ERA over 4.75): Delarosa, Fogg, Rusch, Olsen, Redman, M. Hendrickson, Livian Hernandez, R. Liz, G. Reynolds, Piniero, Moehler, Badenhop, O. Perez (WSN), C. Morton, Nelson Figueroa! and Chacon. That's looks like a pretty crappy bunch of pitchers. Does that seem to be a fair list? Here's the preliminary findings: Weighted Projected ERA: 5.12 Actual ERA Against Brewer Batters: 5.42 So far, I see no evidence that Brewers perform any worse than expected against bad pitchers. In fact, the opposite seems have been true so far. But before I'm willing to stand behind that claim, let me finish up and make sure I didn't make a mistake. I'll try and write something up before the end of the All Star break. Here's the spreadsheet: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pjOhZzPpnP_O8WWYqCYFrKQ
  24. rluzinski
    I love the Brewers, but i will bet my house that the Twins finish with a better record. I won't bet the house but I will bet $50, to be donated to Brewerfan.net. We'll both send Brian the money and he simply returns the winner his $50 at the end of the season. Sounds fair?
  25. rluzinski
    Any estimate for when Braun might get up?
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