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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I wish someone (other than me) would take the time to calculate out the true SOS (win %) for each team's remaining games. Using under/over .500 is such a course measure that it can be very deceiving at times.
  2. rluzinski
    umm, 2nd half vs. first half would seem to be a pretty obvious explanation- i.e. running players into the ground in the first half and having them perform worse in the 2nd because they are gassed. What players? The starting pitching, bullpen?
  3. rluzinski
    Bush has definitely been doing something differently on the road than at home this year: Dave Bush is a man of mystery I'm still not sure about this idea about only pitching him at home. I just don't see it being very practical.
  4. rluzinski
    Is there evidence of that? Did he take fewer pitches early in his MLB career and his minor league career when he wasn't leading off? (serious question) I'm basing my opinion that he doesn't swing at enough pitches based on this: http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=12588 I said this about Weeks: "His O-Swing% looks really pretty, until you realize it's a result of "fake plate discipline". It's not that he's been better at identifying pitches than the average batter, he's simply not swinging at pitches very often overall. Worse still, while he's swung 5.1% less often at a ball out of the zone, he's swung at a ball in the zone 11.1% less often! " Now, that was early April, so let's see if I should have known better and looked at his updated stats first: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2008&month=0 Since late May, he's been swinging at more pitches overall (37.6% to 40.5%) but that's still much lower than the 2007 MLb average of 45.9% average. Most of those extra swings have come against balls in the zone, though, so that's a step in the right direction. He's still swinging at a much lower percentage of them than the league average, though. Now, do I know if that's a result of him leading off? Naaa. Just speculating.
  5. rluzinski
    I got my first smartphone (Moto Q) for Christmas and for a Brewer fanantic, it's just great. I can places and still keep tabs on the game, pitch by pitch (location, type, velocity).
  6. rluzinski
    Even a great hitting pitcher isn't as good as even some below average hitters, so let's not get carried away. That's not to say that the value of a good hitting starting pitcher is negligible: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7588
  7. rluzinski
    How much better is Parra than Bush, Suppan or McClung? I think the difference is pretty small. Especially when we are talking about 5 starts at most. My guesses: Parra: 4.0 ERA Bush: 4.5 ERA Suppan: 4.75 ERA McClung: 4.75 ERA I think it's a pretty big difference. Now, how much is that in terms of wins over 5 starts? Less than a win, certainly.
  8. rluzinski
    Cameron has hit decently and played very good defense. He's doing exactly what he was expected to do. Kapler has had a great 149 AB but expected him to continue hitting as well as he has is settign yourself up for disappointment. As for Weeks, I have no problem with him being moved to 7th in the lineup. I think he takes TOO many pitches (good and bad) trying to be a prototypical leadoff guy.
  9. rluzinski
    What I'm asking is whether a pitcher with a high ERA over the course of a whole season or career actually allows fewer runs versus the Brewers, as that's the perception (e.g. a guy like Glendon Rusch, who always sucks, will do better against the Brewers). And what I'm trying to explain is that, if you see a pitcher in June with a 6.6 ERA, without knowing anything else about him, you'd expect the Brewers to score less than 6.6 earned runs per 9 innings against him. That's because, most likely, that pitcher's skill ERA is less than 6.6. Now, if you want to use a career ERA for a guy who's racked up 600+ innings, that's a lot better, of course. I think that right way to tackle this is to compare a pitcher's projected ERA to their performance with the Brewers. A pitcher's projection is out statistical best guess at a pitcher's true talent level, after all.
  10. rluzinski
    Do the Brewer batters perform closer to average than to a pitcher's ERA if it's extreme? Of course they do! If a pitcher has a very low or high ERA, at least part of that is a result of luck. Fans see an oppossing pitcher with a 8 ERA and thank that means that the Brewers should crush him every time. That just isn't true. The guy probably is more like a true 5.00 ERA pitcher, in skill. I'm working on a study to see how the Brewers have done this year against starting pitchers and their projection (including their performance from this year), which is the correct perspective to have. We'll see how it turns out
  11. rluzinski
    Vegas puts the odds of a Brewers win at 68% today. That means that there is about a 1 in 3 chance of these forums being unreadable over the next 3-4 days. For BF.net's sake, please win, Brewers!
  12. rluzinski
    His 4.4 ERA with a WHIP around 1.4 in AAA shows he is struggling this year. OK, that's fair. But couple that with everything else we know about him (primarily that he's a major prospect) and what's a fair expectation for the Brewer hitters today? 3-4 runs in 5-6 IP? That's a reasonable expectation. The good ones always stop a losing streak before it gets too long. I'm sure Bill Schroeder believes that too.
  13. rluzinski
    I'm a little worried seeing what we did against Fogg Friday night (which wasn't much) it scares me to face another pitcher with an ERA above 8 I would love if the Brewers get 3 runs in 5-1/3 of Bailey. Sign me up! And the fact that Bailey's ERA is over 8 doesn't mean that he's some terrible pitcher. The only thing an ERA like that should tell you is that he hasn't pitched enough innings this year to make his ERA representative of much. And Hall has been "hot" and Branyan "cold", so Yost is just doing what "THE BOOK" is telling him to do. Never mind that Hall's success has been coming against LH pitchers. That consideration isn't in "THE BOOK".
  14. rluzinski
    That may or may not say something significant about Ned's tendencies Look up grass/turf, night/day, roof open/roof closed, even/odd months. Perhaps those will say something about Ned's tendencies as well. Sorry to get snarky but must we attribute every curious team split to some deficiency of the manager? We don't even know HOW a manager could have such an effect, much less whether Yost DID have an effect. The "stumble" this week has just been the same of what they've done all year - lack of consistent, timely hitting and poor bullpen pitching. I'm starting to think that to a fan, consistent team hitting means getting 6+ runs every game and batting .500 w/runners in scoring position. It's a pipe dream. And while the bullpen has been pretty bad over the last week, much of those bad performances came when the game was looking pretty bad to begin with. Only in Friday's game did the bullpen have a large effect on the chances of winning.
  15. rluzinski
    That a one run deficit is easy to overcome than a 5 run no? Wait, unless your are opponents of the Brewers. Of course it is but I was merely pointing out that using Mota in that situation couldn't have that much effect on the Brewer's chance of winning that game since they didn't have much of a chance to win to begin with. But of course, Boston came back against the Yankees down 3-0 in the playoffs, so I must be wrong.
  16. rluzinski
    Objective or not, Weaver has had a better career than Bush with a better track record so I wasn't shooting the moon with that opinion. Jeff Weaver has been terrible for 3 years now. Hell, he has a career 4.72 ERA.
  17. rluzinski
    Their launch boxes sucked because they wanted to beat Sony to market and get in before the first holiday season. The new ones are much more reliable but no piece of electronic hardware is going to have a 0% failure rate.
  18. rluzinski
    Someone should add up the win/loss record and run differential for the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals remaining schedule.
  19. rluzinski
    I was also in favor of Weaver getting a shot, but how can I blame myself? Because objective projections showed that Bush was still easily better than Weaver (and that isn't saying much). And who's to say he won't revert back to that because he's done it time and time again throughout his career? Bush has a 4.56 career ERA. We probably would expect him to revert to that guy, more or less. A back-end of the rotation kind of pitcher. Baseball fans typically WAYYYYYY overweight recent performance. That's why they can say a guy sucks/rocks/sucks/rocks all in the same year. Can somebody please explain why Dave Bush can't pitch on the road but he's a God at Miller Park? Because there is no rational explanation for it (I'd expect Miller Park to be bad for Bush), I just chalk it up as one of those weird splits that aren't predictive. They aren't hard to find in baseball. It's a crazy split, though.
  20. rluzinski
    Abbott's career BA is higher than Sheets. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  21. rluzinski
    Threads like these need to be pinned to the top of the major league forum. What would have been the harm of going with Weaver just to see what he could do? I mean, he couldn't do worse than Bush right? Ack! The real Dave Bush isn't as bad as he was when he had a 6.56 ERA when this thread was started and he's not as good as the insane 2.85 ERA he's put up since then. He was obviously not right for the first couple of starts from the season but but he's gotten back to pitching pretty decently overall. He's a flyball pitcher, so he's got more than a couple starts left where he gives up multiple HRs and gets hammered. Overall, though, we should expect perhaps a 4.5 ERA from him going foreword. Good enough for me. How many players per season should be DFA'd or sent to the minors according to baseball fans that end up being valuable to their team that same year?
  22. rluzinski
    My old company had a record breaking year in terms of sales and profits in 2007. My bonus was tied to that profit. For 11 months all we heard about was how great the company was doing. Of course, when it was time to pay the bonuses out, we learn that they weren't anything special. Why? Because our owners had ivested millions (and got a grant from wisconsin) in upgrading their fabrication and machining capabilities. So, they increase the value of their company in terms of capital and production capacity but that doesn't count, apparently. Darn. Profits were flat. Maybe next year. All companies do that stuff. Privately held ones especially. Even Mark A. and the Brewers! They have all those darn loans still, right?
  23. rluzinski
    The Brewers had a 25% chance of winning before Mota even touched the ball, according to fangraphs. Even if Mota is a true 5 ERA reliever (which is terrible), he's still not much worse than the alternative. Gagne? Riske? I didn't like seeing Mota coming in either but let's not trick ourselves into thinking that the odds went down drastically when he was called on.
  24. rluzinski
    What's a C, an average MLB manager? He makes the same silly mistakes that they all do. C
  25. rluzinski
    Same for Greenie Boy in center. Played that like a Little Leaguer. I expect a rookie to not be aware of a game situation, not a seasoned veteran. Um, yeh.
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