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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Sure, small ball has it's place. I just don't think the reduction in HRs is going to significantly increase the situations where it should be employed.
  2. rluzinski
    This just in..... Yost just... took a bite of a pancake at the hotel restaurant. My source doesn't have a clear view but it appears that while there is plenty of syrup on the pancake, there is no evidence of any butter whatsoever. Stay turned, folks
  3. rluzinski
    The fatal flaw in this argument is that p=.5. That is wishful thinking, I'm afraid. I think that's a pretty reasonable figure, based off the preseason expectations for each of the teams involved and taking into account their performance in the 2008 season so far (ignoring protential pitching matchups). What we are looking for is an estimate of a team's true collective talent. We can then compare the talent of each team, adjust for home field advantage and get a reasonable estimate for a series of games (for one game, the pitching matchups can have a huge effect on the probabilities). If you start talking about the Brewers not playing well at particular parks, or how the Brewers have done against a particular team in 3 games, you are going down the wrong path. That's the kind of splits that fans and gamblers get hung up on but the odds makers know to largely ignore.
  4. rluzinski
    Tom H. could generate about a dozen "interesting" posts a day if he's willing to use bloggers as sources. Hey, I hear that Doug Davis's arm is ready to fall off!
  5. rluzinski
    n = 12, p = .5, x >= 8 19.38% chance: http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/applets/binomialdemo.html Winning 2 more games than expected over 12 games isn't all that hard. 1 in 70 is a 1.4% chance. I'll take a closer look tomorrow and try to estimate the game--by-game win probabilities. Eyeballing it, it should be a little better than 50% on average (I hope). We all need some kind of goal that has a reasonable chance of occurring.
  6. rluzinski
    Assuming a 50% of winning each game (way too late to estimate actual probabilities), there's a 19% chance of winning at least 8 of them.
  7. rluzinski
    My point was, small ball works the best in a low run scoring environments. Historically speaking, teams are still scoring a decent amount of runs. I think Steve Phillips is picking 140 lb hitters with the high socks laying down bunt after bunt.
  8. rluzinski
    I want Branyan up primarily for the bench and for the few times Hall, Braun or Hart might need a break. A start a week, about.
  9. rluzinski
    I think Weeks is still terrible defensively, which is why he HAS to find a way to have an above average bat to justify his existence.
  10. rluzinski
    Teams are still averaging around 4.5 runs/game, so I don't think it's time to start playing like 2 runs is going to win the game.
  11. rluzinski
    I think Weeks trying to be a prototypical leadoff hitter is hurting him as well. He's very patient but is patient against balls and strikes just the same. He has so much natural power, so I'd rather he be swinging a bit more and having more chances at guessing right.
  12. rluzinski
    I think Yost is a bad manager and I've never tried to hide that fact. I just think it should be obvious to all those looking for a quick fix that Yost is the least of our worried right now. Instead, peole have become obsessed with him. Just a convenience thing, I guess.
  13. rluzinski
    Braun may or may not be the team leader, but he's quickly becoming the face of the franchise. I think that's all a team leader really is. The leader in the eyes of the media and fans. Baseball is barely a team sport to begin with (I know, I know, blasphemy!). And while Braun is very hitting well right now, that .319 OBP is keep him from from hitting great. Whether he's going to be a good hitter or a great hitter is still up for debate, IMO.
  14. rluzinski
    I bet Hall, Hardy, Weeks, Cameron, Fielder, Villy, Gagne and Bush can't wait for Yost to get fired, so they can start performing as expected.
  15. rluzinski
    Ahh yes. It's YOST's fault that Melvin has put little emphasis on defense, resulting in an infield that can't field a lick. This isn't little league baseball, where the manager needs to give little Joey a pep talk because he's afraid of the ball and started crying om the field. Yost is there to manage the team, not give the players endless pep talks.
  16. rluzinski
    Prince has always been a bad defender, so let's not pretend it has anything to do with anything else. Wow, the Brewers bats are good again. Too bad the defense is as bad as ever. At least, with all these errors this weekend, I'll never have to hear the laughable claim that the Brewers have the best defense in the league because they had the least amount of errors. Yehhhhhhh.
  17. rluzinski
    How can you have Gwynn's terrible bat in the starting lineup without at least taking advantage of his very good defense? Couldn't Braun have DH'd? How Melvin and Yost have handled the DH this weekend is embarrassing, IMO.
  18. rluzinski
    I'm sure it's my imagination but these announcers seem to couldn't care less about the Brewers. I know, I'm not exactly unbiased.
  19. rluzinski
    All I picture is Melvin and every radio talk show host saying how great Suppan being signed was because he was a winner who knows how to pitch in the big games and blah blah blah. He's mediocre against an average team. He's below average against a good team like Boston. That simple.
  20. rluzinski
    Chance of Brewers winning: Game1: 31% (Vegas) Game 2: 40% (Vegas) Game 3: 40% (my guess) Series Probabilities: Brewers Sweep: 5% Brewers win 2: 26% Brewers win 1: 44% Brewers swept: 25% The fact that the Brewers only have a 31% chance of winning game 1 according to Vegas is pretty crazy.
  21. rluzinski
    For $670,000 per year I'll play first base in all 162 games + playoffs, clean the clubhouse, drive the team bus AND keep Ned in fresh coffee. Of course you would, since you don't have a skill that can make someone else millions of dollars.
  22. rluzinski
    We have a rather extensive body of major league work that tells us that the league he belongs in is the league he is in. The question is, should we expect him to hit better off the bench than the other LH options we currently have? if you think the answer is no, you probably aren't being very objective.
  23. rluzinski
    Fielder complained and then didn't mention it again, just like last year. It didn't seem like a very big deal to me.
  24. rluzinski
    When you were a business manager and felt it necessary to tell an employee that his performance was unacceptable, did you do it publicly? Did you find that an effective way to motivate them? What players do you suspect are not currently giving maximum effort? How do we know that Yost isn't doing what you are suggesting but simply doing it privately?
  25. rluzinski
    Lahmen database is awesome as well: http://www.baseball1.com/statistics/
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