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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    GPA just tries to weigh OBP to SLG, with regard to how each contributes to runs scored. The equation is: GPA = (1.8 x OBP + SLG) / 4 It's works a little better than OPS as a one-number representation of offensive value. It's by no means a mainstream stat, so I should have posted an explanation. The offense hasn't been focused on as much because, until recently, they were still scoring runs. That's because they were doing so well with runners in scoring position (their OPS w/RISP is still almost .100 points higher than overall). You can't really expect that to continue, however. They are going to have to start hitting better as a whole.
  2. rluzinski
    GPA just tries to weigh OBP to SLG, with regard to how each contributes to runs scored. The equation is: GPA = (1.8 x OBP + SLG) / 4 It's works a little better than OPS as a one-number representation of offensive value. It's by no means a mainstream stat, so I should have posted an explanation. The offense hasn't been focused on as much because, until recently, they were still scoring runs. That's because they were doing so well with runners in scoring position (their OPS w/RISP is still almost .100 points higher than overall). You can't really expect that to continue, however. They are going to have to start hitting better as a whole.
  3. rluzinski
    First 8 games (26 AB): .538/.567/.731/1.298 Since (79 AB): .203/.292/.266/.558 Either the results of the LASIK surgery wore off or people might have been jumping to some hasty conclusions after only 8 games. That said, I'm actually pleased with his overall offensive production so far ( .286/.361/.381/.742). As long as he can keep his OBP around .350, you will here no complaints from me. I'm also happy to see that he's been apparently playing good defense and his arm hasn't been the liability that I thought it might be. Really, he's been the only bright spot among the starting positional players so far.
  4. rluzinski
    It ain't pretty: http://i30.tinypic.com/24y2qvk.jpg The only batter with a significant number of ABs (Cameron has only 34) doing better than his projection is Kendall. Unfortunately, the majority of that production occured over the first 8 games of the season. Since then (79 AB): .203/.292/.266/.588. Amazingly, the remaining 6 starters are all hitting over .100 OPS points less than projected! Wow. What they are doing is pretty amazing. You have to expect some significant improvement from this offense if only by accident.
  5. rluzinski
    It ain't pretty: http://i30.tinypic.com/24y2qvk.jpg The only batter with a significant number of ABs (Cameron has only 34) doing better than his projection is Kendall. Unfortunately, the majority of that production occured over the first 8 games of the season. Since then (79 AB): .203/.292/.266/.588. Amazingly, the remaining 6 starters are all hitting over .100 OPS points less than projected! Wow. What they are doing is pretty amazing. You have to expect some significant improvement from this offense if only by accident.
  6. rluzinski
    The bench players are rotting because they aren't very good. It's not like there's a young stud among them just waiting for his chance to prove himself. And even if you feel that Gwynn IS that guy, how do you get him in the lineup, anyway? None of the outfielders are getting benched. Putting Counsell into the lineup with the expectation that he'll hit better than Hardy, Weeks or Hall is fruitless. The only think that might make any sense is to bench Hall against righties and give some starts to Branyan (or try to aquire another lefty 3B) but that's not very exciting either. Right now, the Brewers have the best players that they have already in the lineup. They just have to start hitting.
  7. rluzinski
    That looks pretty ugly, but play a game, if the guy does OK, keep him in that batting slot and fielding position. If he doesn't do well, select a new random guy. Your random lineup just benched one of the only guys hitting at all (Hart) and put one of the wiorst hitters on the team in the 3 hole (Gwynn). What's one game going to prove anyway? A week doesn't really tell you anything, afterall. Any baseball fan knows that anything can happen over the short term. If people want to swap the lineup around just for the heck of it, I don't have a problem with it, since it's not too important anyway. But to start benching good hitters for bad ones for the sake of change is a bad idea. It's easier to pitch to contact then it is to strike out a batter when you're down 2-0, 3-1. I've never been sure what people mean when they say "pitch to contact". I think it is just used to describe a pitcher who doesn't strike many batters out. If you are a groundball pitcher you'll be OK with good defense. If you are a flyball pitcher, you are probably screwed. With the infield defense as it, trying to induce groundballs might not be a great idea anyway. And if pitching to contact simply entails throwing more of your off speed stuff as oppossed to your fastball, doing that when behind in the count will just mean more walks.
  8. rluzinski
    How is Yost even being brought up right now as a problem? The Brewers are sucking because most of the starting lineup and starting rotation are sucking. Maybe you guys should be focusing more on whether guys like Braun, Weeks, Parra and Villy are as good as some might have thought entering the season.
  9. rluzinski
    The problem is that we effectively have 3 , #5 pitchers right now. Do you propose that Ned never let any of them pitch more than 5 innings?
  10. rluzinski
    Your favorite team is never as good or as bad as you think. Can we add a choice to the poll? I'd vote for," not until they replace Yost." Yup, that will get Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hardy and Kendall hitting. That will get Gagne, Bush, Villy and Parra from not sucking. We proably agree on how inept Yost is; I'm just not going to use him as a convenient scapegoat. The Brewers aren't winning because most of the team is stinking it up. Yost is about the 10th biggest problem right now.
  11. rluzinski
    Shuffling the order of the lineup is not going to make any difference worth noting. The simple fact is that the majority of the lineup isn't hitting. Changing the order in which they don't hit won't help.
  12. rluzinski
    I think Yost is pretty inept but it's pretty easy to see the Brewers troubles and Yost is about 5th right now.
  13. rluzinski
    I would do whatever it takes to get the batters to start hitting as they were expected to. That would guarantee another 83 win season. Unless the Brewers get pounded by the luck stick soon, they are in big trouble. No magic pill to bail them out.
  14. rluzinski
    If Bush pitches a complete game, his ERA could still go down.
  15. rluzinski
    This game got fugly quick. Hey, at least it was a game for about 5 minutes there!
  16. rluzinski
    That was a really long half inning for only scoring two runs. That's not what he's saying and you know it. He's giving a list of all the great outcomes that can occur if you put the ball in play, ignoring that all the best ones are already captured with the normal slash stats (BA/OBP/SLG). If I have it wrong, set me straight. What's a non-average strikeout? Average, as in looking at how costly a strike out is in every base/out situation, weighted by how often they occur on average. Ignitor, you are disagreeing with something because you don't agree with it's conclusion. As if the points you bring up has never been factored in. You think you are the first to consider such things? Other have considered it, studied it and concluded that the effect on strikeouts vs. a ball-in-play out is negligible. They looked at the same games you have to conclude the opposite, only they didn't just guestimate the effects.
  17. rluzinski
    Gee, who would guess, a line-up full of strike out hitters might go on a long slump? Well I appreciate the contribution of statistics to the game, the one stat-based wisdom thing I completely disagree with is ignoring strikeouts. Either show some evidence or don't state it as fact. Thanks. While it is true that a strikeout has the same outcome affect as any other out, that ignores that possibilities of all that occur upon contact before the outcome is determined: it can be an out, a hit, a homer, a sacrifice advancing a runner, or an error. So a guy who strikes out doesn't have his hits and HRs count? Huh? We've gone through this over and over again. An average strikeout is a little worse than a normal out.
  18. rluzinski
    Maybe....just Maybe this team the way it is constructed is not very good. Say what you will about the pitching and defense but do you really think the Brewers should be expected to have a .707 OPS right now?
  19. rluzinski
    Why does Bill and brain keep acting like the Brewers have been playing from behind a lot lately. Do they even watch the games? What made the Astros game so especially awesome was that the Brewers were actually ahead for much of it.
  20. rluzinski
    So, instead of a crappy blooper getting caught for the third out, the Brewers are now down 3-0. Gatta love the luck of baseball.
  21. rluzinski
    Was that really a ball on that 3-2 pitch?
  22. rluzinski
    And the Marlins score and complete junk. Woo hoo!
  23. rluzinski
    I know you love them, and I hope you know I love them. They're the Brewers. I understand people being frustrated & pessimistic right now; I just sometimes wish optimism were better-received. I just want people to not throw objectivity out the door when the going gets rough.
  24. rluzinski
    I have never seen such a collective offensive slump among an entire team at this point in the season. I know the offense has been bad (especially considering that the offense was supposed to be the teams' strength) but what they've done as a team isn't historically bad. Out of the 16 NL teams, the Brewers rank 14th in BA, 11th in OBP, 12th in SLG and 11th in runs per game. And if you are trying to compare the Brewers' current offensive numbers to end of season totals, that's not really a fair comparison. Remember: Observed spread = "true skill" spread + random variance Random variance is inversely proportional to the sample size, while true skill stays relatively constant. The more AB a team accumulates, the lower the random variance and observed spread and the better it represents a team's true skill. If you want to compare apples to apples, just use ESPN's team splits to see how teams do on a month by month basis. You'll see that what the Brewers have done so far this year isn't especially unique. Heck, they put up a .728 OPS up in July of last year and 7 teams had a worse OPS! You might have to get in the way back machine for the 1972 Brewers for this kind of offensive futility. The Brewers put up a team OPS of .708 in 2004 for an entire year, so that easily beat's the teams current .707 OPS.
  25. rluzinski
    Marlins .391 vs. Bush? Brewers facing a crappy right hander? Yay to sub .500 tonight. If you honestly think it's that simple, you need to lay some money down on the Marlins. You know something Vegas doesn't. It will only cost you $105 to win $100! Free money! Take Vegas down! Wait. It's not really that simple?
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