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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I would say that against a pitcher like Santana you should wait and see a couple innings if he is on as all pitchers have off days. I really don't get to upset with sac bunting. "The Book" did a study, looking at how well a starting pitcher did after giving up early runs. If i remember right, on average, the performed to their normal level after the rocky start. Perhaps a person could identify when a specific pitcher is "off" based on other factors (bad velocity, no command of a specific pitch). I'd be skeptical if that's that case in the majority of situations, however.
  2. rluzinski
    Well, if anyone wants a basically brand new brawl, the can buy it off me for $30. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I'm not a Nintendo fanboy, so I really don't care if I can play as Link or Metroid.
  3. rluzinski
    Doesn't hurt to give it a shot. Well, he could do bad, which.... would hurt.
  4. rluzinski
    I think we have to be a little careful with applying "average situation" type analysis in that specific game. To play devil's advocate: Santana is pretty much the most unaverage pitcher in the league right now and Sheets isn't too bad himself. That means the run expectency for that game was significantly below average, probably a solid couple of runs less, which is huge. That makes small ball strategy much more appealing in certain situations. With regard to the 1st inning situation: 0-0, Weeks at 2B, Kapler AB, no out Despite Kapler's insanely good start, he should still be considered significantly below average hitter. Presuming a successful sacrifice, the odds of scoring at least 1 run does go up marginally against an average pitcher/defense.. not sure if that also applies against a pitcher like Santana. Is Kapler a good bunter? Doesn't look like he has very many sacrifices in his career, so I'd be tempted to say no. I still don't think I would have called for it but there are far worse situations that you could call a sacrifice in.
  5. rluzinski
    My wife throws some shredded cheese on doritos and nukes it for about 30 seconds. She then adds about a pound of salt and digs in. I am not a fan.
  6. rluzinski
    I'm more worried about Braun because he had almost no plate discipline last year, either. Prince is a much more proven commodity.
  7. rluzinski
    I have nothing against a prolific bunter trying to bunt for a base hit on occation. I'm not sure if Weeks is that guy, however. I also agree that small ball makes alot more sense against a great pitcher like Santana. Still, I think straight sacrifices should be reserved for below average batter in almost all cases. The numbers generally back that up.
  8. rluzinski
    FTJ: We seem to be arguing past each other, at least one the first point. Geno said: "I don't think it's too much to ask of a multi-million dollar veteran, a former All-Star, to come in and shut the door, especially when we're sorely lacking a 2nd lefty in the pen." I said: "How Turnbow should be used has nothing to do with his salary. It's completely irrelevant. You said: "I don't think this is true -- McClung will get sent to Nashville before Mota does. If Gagne struggles he will go down to "setup" instead of getting demoted all the way down to garbage time. " As you can see, your comment doesn't even oppose mine; we are talking about two different things (what a GM should do based vs. what they actually do). I went on to try and explain that salary generally correlated to expected future performance, which is why high priced players generally and deservingly get a longer leash. Many fans seem to think that previous performance is irrelevant, which is why they are so quick to cry foul when a high priced player isn't benched after 2 bad months. McClung would be sent to Nashville before Mota because Melvin most likely thinks he's the better player, which is why he was willing to take on his salary in the first place. I'm sure than GMs sometimes allow the salary of a player to cloud their judgment. I just don't think it occurs as often as people think.
  9. rluzinski
    I'm sorry, but what I meant was that Gross has never been this hot (.423/.448/.962/1.410), ever. Gross's first 26 AB in 2006: .385/.448/.923/1.371 Gross has had other great stretches as well, just like many other mediocre players at some point in their career. While it's kind of fun to look for a player's best streaks, I really don't see the utility in it. It just means a guy randomly bunched his hits up for a small period of time. I'd also like to point out that Kendall got off to just as good a start as Kapler this year: .538/.567/.731/1.298 (26 AB) Just as the calls to take more advantage of his hot bat by to batting him 2nd were gaining speed , he put this up in the Mets series : .091/.167/.091/.258 (11 AB) <-- 1 for 11 with a HBP That's the thing about hot streaks. They are easy to identify while they are ongoing but they tell us little about tomorrow.
  10. rluzinski
    I don't think this is true -- McClung will get sent to Nashville before Mota does. If Gagne struggles he will go down to "setup" instead of getting demoted all the way down to garbage time. I said "should" be used, not will be used. If Melvin is going to misuse guys because of his own pride, so be it. Both of your above examples are true but that's because of what their salaries tell you of Melvin's opinion of them. Gagne wouldn't be sent down to garbage time not because he makes a lot of money but because Melvin thinks he's a very good pitcher. That's why he was paid so much to begin with. A week or two of bad results shouldn't change Melvin's opinion of him. Melvin took a pretty decent risk when he signed Turnbow after only a single good year in 2005. At this point, Melvin realizes he was wrong, which is why his role HAS drastically changed since 2005.
  11. rluzinski
    It's pretty simple to look back and see how well the average batter performs after an expectantly great week or two of performance. It shouldn't surprise anyone that it already has been looked at. "The Book" found that hot players performed very close to their normal performance levels (they outperformed their normal expected performance but it was pretty marginal). Other studies, using slightly different methodologies, got similar results. If you use the "hot hand" theory to justify playing a normally platooned player against same handed pitchers, on average, they will actually perform worse than normal! Mench last year was an excellent example of that playing itself out. Admittedly, Kapler doesn't have very many ABs the last few years, so it's difficult to pin down exactly what is "normal" for him. What we do know is that he has a career batting line of .272/.332/.424/.756 in 2451 ABs and his on the wrong side of 30. It's hard expecting even that out of him anymore.
  12. rluzinski
    How Turnbow should be used has nothing to do with his salary. It's completely irrelevant. That's something for fans to obsess over, not managers.
  13. rluzinski
    Here's MGL trying to sort through all the variables: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/ibb_redux/
  14. rluzinski
    I should have mentioned this before but Mench from last year is even a better example of what not to do. Mench's first 42 AB last year: .405/.419/.595/1.014 Bat is hot! Gotta get him in the lineup! Screw the platoon! Yost took the bait, giving him the majority of the starts over the next couple of weeks. Here's what he did (48 AB): .208/.204/.313/.517
  15. rluzinski
    I play my 360 a lot more than my wii. The excitement of the wii controls wore off quickly, after I realized how inaccurate they really were. Wii Sports and Super Paper Mario are the only two games I really got into so far. Smash Brothers just seems like a generic fighter game with bad graphics. Galaxy hasn't grabbed me yet but it seems pretty cool, so I feel like I should like it more. I'll certainly be giving it a second chance soon.
  16. rluzinski
    It's hard to exactly love this matchup when Wainright has a 10:1 K:BB ratio I was told the Brewers would have their hands full with Perez, as he hadn't allowed an earned run all year! Look how that turned out. No reason to get too excited over the results of 2 starts. Bush's early numbers DO worry me though, as it's obviously a result of some real issues with velocity and command he's having right now.
  17. rluzinski
    It would be nice to have another lefty in the pen but he can't just be a guy who is brought in for one guy, IMO. It's shame that Bush has been so bad so far, as parra could be the perfect guy for that role right now. Also, I don't think you start adjusting your bullpen to accommodate the few times you have to ask them to to pitch 4 innings.
  18. rluzinski
    Having a hot stretch similar to what Kapler is having right now isn't all that uncommon (although, I have to admit that it's extreme, even for a hit streak). That's only a little over a week of regular ABs, after all. Many players have had a streak like that at some point in their career. People just notice it more when it happens to start the season. Remember Gwynn's first 36 AB last year? .417/.500/.500/1.000 More than a few people were calling for Gwynn to be made the full time starter after that and were using that sample as evidence that his stick was finally ready for prime time. Unfortunately, this is how he finished the 2007 season (87 AB): .195/.247/.241 /.488 Heck, Let me pick the worst hitter on the team and find his best stretch last year. Here's a 23 AB stretch in June from Counsell: .348/.444/.522/.966 If he had done that to start the season, there would probably have been a thread on bf.net about the Brewers needing to find more playing time for him. But because it happened in June, I'm not sure if anyone even noticed (I didn't remember it at least). I'm as happy as anyone else that Kapler is crushing the ball so far this year. I just think it's important to keep things in perspective and realize that you shouldn't start changing your plans based on a great 26 AB's
  19. rluzinski
    My mistake. Wes Helms was worth $750k to the Marlins. What is that, about 1,500 baseballs or so?
  20. rluzinski
    I have a huge headache but at least it ended well.
  21. rluzinski
    Well, Riske has warmed up twice now, so he must have been available (although probably not anymore).
  22. rluzinski
    Mota was pretty good in 2004, so at least he has that going for him.
  23. rluzinski
    That was a pretty, pretty double play. Hardy's arm has just looked amazing so far this year.
  24. rluzinski
    Weeks!
  25. rluzinski
    I don't know who'd rather have, a bad Suppan or McClung, who's just bad.
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