rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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This is not difficult stuff: 1. When you are paraphrasing, make it clear that you are paraphrasing. The opposite of that would be to put it in quotes. 2. Whether you are paraphrasing or directly quoting, provide a source. 3. Always follow rules 1 and 2, regardless of whether you believe your audience will like it, hate it, or will be indifferent towards it.
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But no one is asking if pitchers pitch to batters differently in different situations. The theory of protection says that an average elite batter will perform better when he has a good batter after him. If you say that isn't true in the aggregate, that theory fails.
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How much faith do you put in the WAR stat?
rluzinski replied to splitterpfj's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
If you are talking about a starting pitcher with a long career, I wouldn't weigh fielding independent stats very much. I wouldn't use a version of WAR that uses FIP as a result. Really, ERA becomes pretty darn good (adjusted for park) over a long career, unless the pitcher had a consistently good for bad defense behind him. For evaluating a hitter's career, I would be happy to use WAR. -
Statistical Comparisons between Tony Gwynn & Joe Morgan
rluzinski replied to 3and2Fastball's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I agree that if you want a particular batter to drive a run in, you want the high BA guy. What teams are looking for are more runs in general, though. As such, they care want the batter that adds the most runs scored at the team level. As for the theory that 3TO doing better against bad pitchers than the average batter, I don't buy it. -
When you see ANY batter put up a SLG in 206 PA that is 100 points higher than his career numbers, you should have some real skepticism that the batter can keep it up. Any projection system is first going to estimate that Gomez's power will be somewhere between what it ends up at this year and what it was previous to this year. Then it's going to bump that up a notch because Gomez is still young and do some regression. There are lots of other things that projection systems can and will do but that is the gist of it. Obviously, if Gomez is taking a drastically different approach at the plate, that could result in a shift of expectations (good or bad) that no projection system is going to take into account. Certainly, cutting down on bunt attempts will raise his ISO but I'm not sure how large that effect would be. Everything else is just mostly speculation. Gomez is a big strong guy who has always excited people because of his raw talent. He has displayed a nice tick in power the last couple of years but I think there is little chance he has a .466 SLG next year in a meaningful number of PAs. Notice I didn't saw no chance, as there are plenty of batters who have had large shifts in production, but they are the exception. I would be happy to wager against it.
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Just scary that our 7th, 8th and 9th onning relievers now all have an ERA over 5.
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I think the poition players are trying to win but they are probably more concerned with their personal performances than the outcome of the games at this point.
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I think the poition players are trying to win but they are probably more concerned with their personal performances than the outcome of the games at this point.
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As Greinke said, it's a good group of guys. That's how professionals are supposed to act.
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That would make more sense if Axford wasn't a big part of the problem.
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You can tell all of that from a commercial? ?
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Someone asked Lucroy about this and he said he would be terrible at any other position. Said he hasnt played another position since grade school I'm sure he could learn 1B. His value would be a fraction of what it is now, though.
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Rodgers looks like a hard throwing reliever with little command. He rarely hits where Lucroy sets up. That said, 3+ innings tells us little. The guys that have been following him during his minor league career can tell you a lot more than one start can.
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He wasn't trying to work around him, obviously.
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Like others have said, coming back from wrist surgery it likely would take anyone a little while to find their groove. But in his last three starts covering 19 innings he has given up 9 hits, walked 5, and struck out 20. Anyone can do that for a game or two, but as they say, once is an accident, twice is luck, three times is a trend. Got nothing to lose at this point. Season is lost, he has no options left, let's see if the last three starts are really a trend and if it means one less pitcher the Brewers have to find in the offseason, starter or bullpen. 3 times is a blink of an eye in baseball.
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This is what tangotiger uses for positional adjustment estimates: +12.5 C +7.5 SS +2.5 2B/3B/CF -7.5 LF/RF -12.5 1B -22.5 DH That puts 2B and 3B as equal. My mistake.
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True but that would just reduce his overall value even more. If he's not going tobe at ss,2b or cf, it just raises the bar for what he'll need to do with the stick.
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I agree but the problem is, he's going to project to have less power next year but the same OBP. .300/.410 is a more reasonable projection for him next year. Even with elite defense, not sure that justifies him being an everyday starter at any price.
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Sounds like Melvin got a very good haul. That said, I get the feeling that Segura won't be able to stick at SS, which means he will start there for at least a full season. He's destined for 2B... which complicated things.
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I suspect that you would say that about any baseball stat your are unfamiliar with. Like it or now, you are going to have to ignore the majority of stats in 20 years, then. That's bound to happen when a sport uses the same metrics for 100 years. Time to play some catch up!
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Good for Rogers for fighting through everything but there's nothing in his numbers this year to get excited about. I hope he proves me wrong.
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You are going to thing WAR is idiotic if you think it's trying to estimate who is the better hitter, who is more "worthwhile" or who's production has been worth more to their respective teams. It's not trying to answer any of those questions. It's just the context neutral value of a player's production over a certain period of time. Basically, it takes a linear weights approach, where all batting events are given a run value based on their average values. I suggest your read Fangraph's primer on WAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/ As I've written many times before, there is plenty of room to criticize certain aspects of WAR's construction but the tendency is for people to simply cherry pick two players and use it as the foundation for their criticism. The comparison is usually between an established superstar who is predictably doing well and some league average batter playing well over his head. Is the expectation that WAR should take that into account? As for park factors, at best they adjust for the batter's handedness. Otherwise, they are for the "average player". If Willingham's HR's barely made it over the fence in a small park and Braun's HR's would have been a HR in any park, park factors are going to unfairly hurt Braun in that comparison. And finally, the AL clearly has more talent. There are a number of ways to support that claim but the most easy way is to simply see how poorly the NL has performed against the AL since the inception of interleague play. As a fan of an NL team, it's kind of embarrassing.
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Are you sure they dont calculate separate pf for lefties and righties? There are a lot of problems with park factors but I'm not convinced that ignoring park effects completely is a better approach. Can you provide any evidence?
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Knobler reports Brewers are ready to sell, as early as today
rluzinski replied to torts's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think Melvin could trade half a dozen players and still be playing for 2013. Guys like Greinke, Marcum, KRod, Wolf and probably Kotaras will not be playing for the 2013 Brewers regardless. Maldonado will have a minimum impact with Lucroy around. You could trade a guy like Hart and it could still be a net gain to the '13 and '14 teams, depending on the return and team makeup. -
Keeping him around for 2 months serves what purpose exactly? Sure they could release Parra too. I won't argue that there's other guys they could release, but the rest of this season needs to be about making decisions for 2013 and beyond. What they are going to keep running K-Rod out there in some hope that he'll recover enough form to get something back in a waiver deal? You don't put your fans through that. I know I won't be able to sleep at night, knowing I may have to watch KRod pitch for the Brewers for another month. End the madness!