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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I don't know how many times this has to said but a manager simply can't pull every starting pitcher at the earliest signs of trouble. The bullpen would be fried after about 2 weeks.
  2. rluzinski
    Whether they finish the series at or below .500 is pretty irrelevant to me. If the Cubs take 2 of 3, they'll gain 1 game on the Brewers in the standings. That's what matters and it's a pretty small change. As long as the Brewers don't get swept, the one series has no chance of significantly improving the Cub's position in the NL. As long as the Brewer have a lead over 5 games, I'd say that's pretty comfortable. On a related note, I guess I just don't worry about the "emboldening your enemies" theory. Fans might worry about that stuff but I don't think the Brewer players and management do.
  3. rluzinski
    2) If they stay close, the Brewers will have to remain focus late in the season. If the other teams give up, the Brewers may sleepwalk into the playoffs, likely leading to a first round loss.[/i] I don't think there's any real evidence of that. You can find examples in all directions, if you want. I'd rather the Cubs and Cardinals be sellers, without a do
  4. rluzinski
    Lowest Pitches Per PA, min 150 PA: [b]PLAYER TEAM TPA P/PA[/b] [b]Johnny Estrada[/b] MIL 255 3.00 [b]Kevin Mench[/b] MIL 161 3.08 Miguel Olivo FLA 261 3.13 Howie Kendrick LAA 177 3.14 Corey Patterson BAL 244 3.20 Kenji Johjima SEA 241 3.20 Vladimir Guerrero LAA 326 3.21 Jay Payton BAL 215 3.21 Mike Sweeney KAN 225 3.27 Aaron Boone FLA 228 3.32LINK Crazy. true Russ, but don't limit Mench's regression to just since he became a Brewer. My point was that Al might be wrong in assuming Mench's numbers should approach his career numbers if given enough AB. It seems like Mench has changed his approach in the last couple of years, so there seems to be more going on.
  5. rluzinski
    I'm certainly not going to think Mench has forgotten how to hit LHP after 100 AB's this year. As I tried to show, he's actually changed his approach at the plate since becoming a Brewer. I think that complicates the small sample explanation.
  6. rluzinski
    Vargas might put up a 4.0 ERA as a reliever. Not very exciting. The only thing that gives him any significant value is that he can go 5 innings.
  7. rluzinski
    I'd go if I could get reasonably priced tickets. I just assume that's not really possible, however. I quick search online shows tickets starting a $150 for a pair. No thanks. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  8. rluzinski
    Graffy hits like a very good backup infielder. He simply doesn't have the stick to justify playing him in LF. His career OPS if .733 says it all. If Melvin decides that Mench needs to taken out of the lineup, he's probably going to have to go outside the organization to get a reasonable replacement. Rottino hit lefties in AAA to the tune of .375/.440/.508/.948 last year but over only 120 AB. He has an .812 OPS this year overall, which probably doesn't translate to anything too special in the majors. I'm not generally one to get worked up about small samples but Mench now has 284 very bad AB with the Brewers over the last 2 years. What's most troubling is that his production drop off has coincided with a much more aggressive approach at the plate. He's never walked much but with the Brewers he has 5 AB! Of course, when you see less than 3 pitches per PA, as he is in 2007, it shouldn't be surprising that he can't walk. Still, I hope Melvin is fishing around for a replacement for Mench. It's not a situation that needs immediate attention but it's certainly an area that could be improved.
  9. rluzinski
    The value of veteran knowledge on a team as young as ours is an a factor that cannot be measured, and even Bill James acknowledges that it exist, just cant put a number on it. As long as that veteran leadership doesn't block younger, better players, why would anyone have a problem having it?
  10. rluzinski
    For my tastes, I'll take the guy slugging .521. Reyes has an OBP over .400. It's 61 points over Hardy's. Their similar OPS's aren't even close in value.
  11. rluzinski
    I hate it when we boo our home players. It was a one run game. More success = more bandwagon fans = more booing. Sad but true.
  12. rluzinski
    K, so I wused out and dint drive the 2 hours to see Vargas! He scares me 2 much! Guess Ill cheer fer him right here! LOL!
  13. rluzinski
    The notion that not pitching Dave Bush against the Cubs is going to spell doom is kind of laughable, at least to me. I guess it's good that you imagined someone expressing that sentiment. Close call! We are trying to figure out why Bush is being skipped and if it hints at a much more significant move in the near future. If it's simply one start, it's insignificant.
  14. rluzinski
    I see several stretches of 3 or more very good starts in a row. I think (hope) he was kidding.
  15. rluzinski
    If you like this stuff, you'll love this link: LINK It's one think to state that "all that matters is wins", since you really can't argue that. It's when you use that concept with player evaluations that all hell breaks lose.
  16. rluzinski
    I don't think Bush is going anywhere. He's an above average starting pitcher and Melvin owns his rights for 3.5 more years. He'd have to get a pretty decent return to justify making a trade.
  17. rluzinski
    Could Yost just be trying to be diplomatic about it, since Vargas was skipped last time? That's a pretty silly reason but it's better than none. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  18. rluzinski
    Bush's ERA over the last 5 starts is a full run lower than Vargas's over his last 5 (3.23 ERA vs. 4.24 ERA). Maybe Yost wants to play the "cold hand"? As Brian said, the only thing that makes sense is that Yost knows something that we don't.
  19. rluzinski
    Bush's last 5 starts: 30 2/3 IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 Do I think this represents Bush's true talents? Not any more or less than the 5 starts preceding his last 5, when he put this up: 31 1/3 IP, 6.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 Of course, he gave up only 1 HR over the last 5 starts, compared to 6 HRs the previous 5. Conversely, he's actually given up more line drives in the more recent sample (27 vs. 20). Doesn't make sense, huh? That's because the samples are too small. In fact, you can pretty much play this game with any Brewer starter this year: [b]2007 ERA, First 5 starts vs. Second 5 starts vs. rest:[/b] [b] FIRST SECOND FINAL TOTAL[/b] Sheets 4.50 3.06 2.04(6) 3.09 Capuano 3.21 5.18 5.00(3) 4.35 Suppan 2.97 4.01 7.43(6) 4.90 Bush 6.23 6.03 3.23(5) 5.17 Vargas 2.08 4.94 5.24(5) 4.29 The results of five starts simply doesn't tell you a whole lot about the underlying talent of a pitcher. If they did, than Suppan and Vargas would still be studs and Sheets could still be replaced by a 4.5 ERA pitcher. EDIT: Updated table through yesterday's start and added # of starts in "final" column.
  20. rluzinski
    Since I'm the only one who posted numbers I assume you were talking to me with the 3.50 ERA comment. Not specifically you. I just get the impression that many are already convinced that Yo is the 2nd best starting pitcher on the team. He certainly has that potential but I'm not sure if it's going to be true in 2007. Certainly, the results of his first two starts aren't going to be able to tell us.
  21. rluzinski
    For me, this might be a case where stats don't tell the whole story. I don't see how carving up the small samples into even smaller ones paints a clearer a pitcher. Turnbow has blown up a few times but I'm not sure what people expect from him. He's a good enough but not great reliever who prone to blowing up on occasion. As a fan, I'd rather suffer through some tense situations if it means an overall better option than the alternative. I don't think think Villy is obviously better than Turnbow. Where Villy beats him is in his ability to go more than 1 inning. Making Villy the new setup guy negates that advantage. If Villy hadn't been up in the order last night, I'd like to think Yost would have used Villy in the 8th last night. That would be a perfect way to use him, IMO.
  22. rluzinski
    Frankly, I don't think Hardy deserves to go. That's not really a knock on him. There are just some great SS performances coming out of the NL this year. Three qualified NL SS with an OBP over .375? Wow. LINK
  23. rluzinski
    The Brewers are positioning themselves to be able to use Yo into September and (hopefully) October. If they limit his innings now, he'll have enough left in the tank to be in the starting rotation later if needed. All his remaining innings will be used up in the majors. Not sure how anymore can argue with this plan. Also, am I the only one who thinks it's premature to declare Yo a 3.5 ERA major league pitcher? I love what I've seen so far but I have a feeling we are getting a bit ahead of ourselves.
  24. rluzinski
    Because of where I live, we have to leave midweek games by 9 PM. When Vargas pitches, I'm lucky to see 5 IP. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  25. rluzinski
    Sheets now is tied for the most wins in the NL (9) and has the 6th best ERA (3.09) among qualified starters.
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