rluzinski

I don't think the fact that his walk total is less with guys on tells the whole story about his control in that situation. Of course not, which why I said that while ,"the data suggests something is going on", I didn't know what, exactly: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/bushrunnerson.jpg Sometimes pitchers are rightfully criticized for not walking guys enough. With runners on, Bush might choose to throw one down the middle of the plate over trying to hit the corner and conceding the chance of a walk. Should I take the non-stretch situations out of that? Which ones would those be?

I keep saying, "consider all the information available", whether it be scouting and statistical. If Yost knows that Bush is doing something mechanically that might cause him trouble in the stretch, that's additional information that needs to be considered. Is Coco fatigued or hurt? Additional information. Mangers should always be on the look out for a shift in performance, so they can investigate further. That doesn't cost the team anything. What might cost the team something is making a hasty personnel decision based only on a small sample. They need to weigh the cost of making the wrong decision with the probability of being correct. And the idea isn't that you pass some magical threshold that makes an otherwise statistically insignificant sample, 100% rock on solid. The uncertainty of the data is proportional to the sample size. The larger the sample, the more accurate it is. Using the coin flip example, it's not surprising if we flip 6 out of 10 heads, right? It would only mildly surprising if we flipped 30 out of 50 heads. Now, flip 1,000 times and you are going to be pretty darn close to 500 heads, because you flipped it enough times to let the odds even themselves out. Here are some odds odds: Flip 6 or more heads out of 10: 38% Flip 30 or more out of 50: 10% Flip 60 or more out of 100: 3% Flip 600 or more out of 1000: ~0% LINK But for real baseball players, we have to contend with the uncertainty of their true, current skill level plus the above "coin flip" uncertainty. Even if your player were a robot that had a .300 BA skill level, you wouldn't really see that solely based on the results of 10 AB. Of course, if your robot batter was also hacking at every first pitch, that's more information...

If you're a manager or coach, and you see enough to convince you that Boosh struggles in the stretch position, you try to limit the exposure to that damage, right? The point I was driving across was that, if you ONLY have the raw data, making decisions based on a small sample is foolish, especially when a larger one is available. It's like flipping a coin 10 times, getting 7 heads and deciding that the coin flips heads more than tails. As I said, if Yost has other information (like scouting) at his fingertips that I'm not privy to (which is what I assume), fine. If he looked at the coin and saw something that might cause the odd results, that's additional information and it needs to be considered. But 7 heads in 10 flips in itself isn't enough evidence to conclude the unexpected. And how many times are those silly saber guys correct when they suggested that you are better off ignoring those early numbers? This year alone has countless examples. I read from a guy that I respect that Sheets could be replaced by a pitcher with a 4.5 ERA because that's what his current ERA was. We had someone suggest Suppan and Capuano were better pitchers than Sheets! Tony Gwynn Jr. was supposed to be the everyday lead off hitter based almost exclusively on the results of 36 AB. Hart was over rated and shouldn't start every day, if at all. So many examples just from this year. It's no wonder you hear "small sample" until you want to explode. What a typical baseball fan wants to be able do is skim the sports page in his Sunday newspaper in May and start making generalizations based on 50 IP or 150 AB. There's so much more information available... use it. If a person wants to formulate an educated opinion on a player, they should consider all the information available, whether it be stats from last year or current scouting information. They should also appreciate the inherent uncertainty of the stats they are looking at. And you're always rhetorically asking, "when is a sample big enough?" but I don't know if you've ever really wanted to know the answer. I've shown many times the uncertainty associated with small samples but I don't think you aren't very interested in that kind of stuff. You don't have to be but then I think it's unfair to still question the validity of the concept. I didn't make those darn, pesky statistical laws, so that I could win arguments over people on the internet. They exist because they exist. If you or anyone else wants to conclude a coin is flawed because it flipped 7 heads out of 10, don't be surprised when someone tells you that you are being hasty.

6.5 HP, 4 Stroke Briggs & Stratton on a Craftsman Lawnmower. While I was away, the wife was mowing the lawn when it started smoking on her (burning oil). She kept mowing (of course http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ), until the engine died. Then, she saw that it had little or no oil, WAY over filled it and tried to mow some more. According to her, it was mowing OK but burning lots of oil, with oil running all over the place. When I got back, I took some oil out and ran it. It started right up but was burning a lot of oil, so I shut it down right away. When I took the head off, I found a substantial notch at the perimeter of the piston, with a corresponding shallow scratch on the cylinder wall. When I turned the engine upside down, it was obvious that oil was getting leaking through the rings and the notch on the piston. I assume that the piston was damaged, which caused the oil to start burning. I don't know if the engine then over heated or not but I assume that it did. I don't see anything obviously wrong but I don't really know what to look for. I bought the lawnmower new about a year ago for $180. I could buy a new piston head, rings and gaskets for $56 (including tax and shipping). If I thought there was at least a reasonable chance it would be OK, I'd give it a go. Might I be able to get away with that slight scratch in the cylinder wall or should I hone it a bit? Is there any other obvious damage I should be looking for? Any information would be appreciated.

Bush actually walks less guys with men on, so I'm not sure what that means. Batterers' isolated power against Bush also increases when runners are on. The only way that would jive with the "less control from the stretch" theory is that Bush is so against walking guys with runners on, that he grooves one down the middle instead of throwing ball 4? The data suggests something is going on, but there are sample size issues. When do pitchers typically work from the stretch? Only when a base runner could steal a base, right? For example, if the bases are loaded, they don't even bother, correct? If that's true, there are probably less than 450 AB worth of "from the stretch" data for me to look at. Pretty hard to extract much from that. Perhaps Yost is simply aware of some mechanical changes to Bush's delivery that he feels hurts Bush's accuracy when he pitches from the stretch. Otherwise, there probably isn't enough data to draw any firm conclusions from.

Keep him in the pen to keep his IP down. Around the all star break, deal Vargas for a decent RH corner outfielder if necessary. Yo should then have enough miles left on the arm to get us through the post season. Ready? Break!

I apologize to anyone I ignored when they said yo's stick has value http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Camel toe? Ack!

Sheets would have to finish with 10 wins and a 3.0 ERA to be considered. That would be a pretty tall order at this point. When are the pitchers usually chosen?

It's not the exact order I would have liked but the right players are in there, which is by far the most important part. I hope Weeks gets healthy soon and forces himself back into somewhere in the top 5 soon.

I really hope that Weeks won't be batting below guys like Mench and Estrada for very long. And why should we think he can't handle the pressure?

5+ IP, 4 ER

Maybe Yost simply agrees with the 'batting order doesn't matter' stuff that is repeated here quite regularly by some. If that were true, I wouldn't think that he would change it seemingly every day. Considering his level of tinkering and comments regarding it, I think it's fair to say he thinks it's very important.

Really, anything between 10-9 and 12-7 for the next 19 games could easily happen. A couple 1 run games in either direction makes all the difference. That's how baseball works. So you're looking for two out of three, right Russ? With those advantageous pitching match ups, it makes the possibility a lot more realistic, sure. If you mean, will I feel personally wronged if the Brewers only take one, probably not. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif I'd certainly enjoy it. Since anything can happen over three games, I try not to get to hung up on the results of just one series.

Brewers, 2006: [b] AB BA OBP SLG OPS[/b] Overall 2358 .265 .328 .445 .773 RISP 576 .240 .323 .391 .714There is a lot of uncertainty associated with a sample size of 576 AB at the team level. I don't think it would be fair to assume that the Brewers will continue to under perform with runners in scoring position, at least to that degree. Whether they are changing their approach with RISP, I don't know. I hope they aren't being coached to but with Yost's fascination with Estrada's BA, it wouldn't surprise me. Furthermore, I think fans typically have unrealistic expectations in run scoring situations. For instance, I'll see the Brewers string together a single and walk with 2 out, only to see the next batter make the final out in the inning. Far and away, the most common expected result is 2 LOB (about a 67% chance with an average batter up), yet some seem overly disappointed when it occurs. I know it's a cumulative effect from past failures but it tends to inflate the perceived problem. According to BP, the Brewers have scored 12 less run than their raw stats indicate they should have so far. While not insignificant, I think that's a lot smaller than many fans assume.

10-9 would still be acceptable in my eyes....but the Cubs Series is the one that I really want to win. And that's the one with easily the worst odds (43% per game). I'd love a series win but I'll be OK with getting just 1 there, unless the pitching match ups really favor the Brewers (Sheets and no Zambrano).

The funny part about discussing the Suppan free agent signing is, numerous posters were crying about how the Brewers wern't doing anything in regard to making the team better. I for one was one of them. The funny part is that the ones who generally cry about the Brewers lack of off season moves generally don't mind over paying for free agents.

Here's what my gut says: SF: 1.5 of 3 KC: 2 of 3 HOU: 2 of 3 @ CHC: 1 of 3 @ PIT: 2.5 of 4 @ WSH: 2 of 3 11-8 it is. 12 out of 19, or I curse like a sailor. I look forward to you sharing your over reaction with the rest of us. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif EDIT: Ran some numbers. Here are the average expected wins: home stand: 5.55 wins road trip: 5.45 wins ------------- Wow, 11 wins on the dot http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Probabilities for the upcoming home stand: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/6_18_hometand.jpg

Character is generally over rated in baseball, but when a lack of it keeps getting your players suspended, it certainly is worth noting. The Brewers thank Piniella for getting his guys to play "with a chip on their shoulder".

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/YO.jpg I'd be happy with any kind of reasonable start for his major league debut. Heck, 4 runs in 5 IP would be fine with me.

Shouse and then Turnbow. Spurling for the 10th. May have been the same result though, so I won't pretend Yost cost us a win. Maybe just .1 wins http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I guess it's better to not give any thought about how one might get payoff tickets IF the Brewers make it and then whine when you can't get any. Even if the Brewers had only a 1 in 3 shot of making the playoffs (odds are actually much higher right now), it was a no brainer to me to split a 20 gamer with a friend to make sure we got tickets. And as for the sticker shock of the actual playoff tickets, one could simply sell a couple of them and defray a significant portion of the investment.

Regarding Yost's apparent decision to bat Weeks 8th, when he comes back... I'd love to sit down with Yost over a beer and hear how he comes up with these lineups. Even "bad Weeks" gets on base at a better clip than many of the guys Yost is apparently going to let hit in front of him. But hey, Jenkins and Weeks must be the 7th and 8th best hitters on the team? Picking a lineup out of a hat would make more sense than half the stuff Yost comes up with.

EDIT: My brother always explained the baloon at the end of his contract away by saying that we can always trade him. I hope he is right. Right, if Suppan proves to not be worth his contract, he can just be traded away. Wait a second...

Watching Suppan get destroyed and knowing he's being paid big money to be mediocre is really starting to annoy me. That MVP and "ability to win" didn't look very helpful today. I wonder how good he'll be in 2010. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif