rluzinski

Don't worry about sac flies if you don't have them, just figure OBP without them. First, remember that batting order isn't nearly important as some might think. The difference between the best and worst lineup isn't all that much. Second, since run environment dictates lineup optimization significantly, I'll just give my advice in generalities. This is just my opinion but it's based on some decent studies on the topic. Put good OBP guys 1 and 2. If they have good speed as well, good for them but it's not too important. That's probably the single largest flaw of many lineups in the majors; putting some guy who's fast and/or "good with the bat" at #2. Screw that. You want a guy who will get on base. At 3, put a guy who has a lot of power but my not get on as much as your #4 guy. Your #4 guy should be the stud, with good power and OBP skills. The next best power hitter should go #5. Order the rest in terms of their overall ability of getting on and power.

I think a loss today will put the board on meltdown mode. We cannot lose 2 of 3 to KC!!! Anyone who thought that a sweep was the only acceptable outcome will probably be the ones also overreacting to a 1-2 series. I sure hope he doesn't happen but it won't be the end of the world either.

At least we now know Bill Hall is NOT an everyday SS. Please. I was Hall's biggest critic about his D a couple years ago but he's developed into at least a mediocre defensive SS.

Defense just falling apart this inning. This stinks.

2 runs through 6 IP for Bush. Only 85 pitches. Bush is an innings eater.

Hey, how did you do that simulation anyway? What did you use for average base advancements? (for instance, how often does a man on first score from a double). I'm about 80% done with a corny simulator but guessed on some base advancements. Thanks.

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7391/569/400/win%20prob623.gif

It sure is nice to be wrong sometimes! Moellers' favorite pitch, high cheese, froze Shelton? I would very much enjoy an insurance run here. 1 game under is a lot nicer than 3.

I'm not very confident with bringing in Cappy with the bases loaded. Sure hope I'm wrong.

So, with Barnwell getting a pinch hit, does he now take over the role of Gross as #1 pinch hitting option? When there's a left handed pitcher in the game and Cirillo and Hart aren't available, yes http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

There we go! There's some Weeks power! Bullpen. We love you. We were just kidding before. Please be kind.

Gratz, Barnswell.

We are getting close to having a thread titled "Korey[sic] Hart", proclaiming that he'll never amount to anything in the majors.

This is all Geoff Jenkins' fault.

Actually, I'm guessing that his "noodle arm" probably does have something to do with it. Miller hasn't exactly lit up the world with his arm either: [b] SB CS CS%[/b] Moeller 20 5 20% MIller 23 8 26%Moeller has given up about 3 more steals that Miller would have (assuming he had a 26% CS% over Moellers 25 steal attempts). Pretty small difference.

If I understand things correctly, the Crew has a full 1 run higher ERA when Chad plays Even with his noodle arm, I don't think it's fair to blame Moeller for that difference. Now, if you look at WHO he's caught vs. their season ERA, I may just listen http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

And poor Russ, driving 3 hours to see this big bowl of crap. 3:30 PM: Leave Work (Sturgeon Bay) 4:15 PM: Arrive at Home (Green Bay) 4:30 PM: Leave Home 6:30 PM: Arrive In Milwaukee 7:05 PM: Game Start (Go Brewers!) 8:03 PM: Leave Park (10-0, Damn you, Helling!) 10:30 PM: Arrive at Home (Green Bay) To be fair, it's not like I didn't know old man Helling was getting the start. I knew what I was getting into. The hawing party paid to see this one At least BP paid for my tickets http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Correlating to runs scored, Dan Fox puts RC formulas at .958 (simple) and .964 (current, more complicated Bill James formula). Just to make clear (I know you know this already) the abve values are r^2 values, not "percentage within", which Al brought up earlier. Here's an example of a full season. Does this formula get more accurate with large samples? Run estimators use aggregate stats, so context is largely stripped out (diff estimators do this diff ways). For instance, a linear weights approach would say that a HR is worth 1.4 runs, with the .4 part coming from an average number of base runners on during those home runs. Well, if a team has a very high OBP, a HR is actually worth more since there will be, on average, more base runners on. What about a big HR hitter in the 8th spot? He'll probably have less base runners than would be expected by looking only at team OBP (as basic RC and others do). As you use a larger and larger sample, these peculiarities begin to cancel each other out, making the results become more and more accurate. As a general rule of statistical analysis, larger sample sizes result in greater accuracy for this very reason. Individual data has random uncertainty that should average toward the actual value. Russ, you've mentioned (very minor) flaws with using OBP times SLG times AB. Can you refresh our memories? Well, all run estimators are "flawed" by default, since they try to model the results of chain of probabalistic events with aggregate data. Unless you are using a simulator Markov Chain analysis, you are using a very simplified (essentially flawed) scoring model. Some are simply less flawed than others. Now how to measure "accurate" or "flawed" is subjective anyway. Dan Fox covers this in the below article: A Closer Look at Run Estimation No matter how advanced a run estimator is, it will never be perfect. Even if you know Lee is going to hit 45 home runs, no one can predict exactly WHEN he will and what the exact context will be when he does. Sorry for the long rambling post.

Every year I've figured it it's been 98%+. Are we calculating this differently? [b]2005, Basic Runs Created TEAM AB OBP SLG Runs sRC diff %corr[/b] Boston 5626 0.357 0.454 910 912 2 99.8% NY Yankees 5624 0.355 0.450 886 898 12 98.6% Texas 5716 0.329 0.468 865 880 15 98.3% Cincinnati 5565 0.339 0.446 820 841 21 97.4% Philadelphi 5542 0.348 0.423 807 816 9 98.9% St. Louis 5538 0.339 0.423 805 794 -11 98.7% Cleveland 5609 0.334 0.453 790 849 59 92.6% Toronto 5581 0.331 0.407 775 752 -23 97.0% Oakland 5627 0.330 0.407 772 756 -16 97.9% Atlanta 5486 0.333 0.435 769 795 26 96.7% LA Angels 5624 0.325 0.409 761 748 -13 98.2% Tampa Bay 5552 0.329 0.425 750 776 26 96.5% Chicago Sox 5529 0.322 0.425 741 757 16 97.9% Colorado 5542 0.333 0.411 740 758 18 97.5% Baltimore 5551 0.327 0.434 729 788 59 91.9% Milwaukee 5448 0.331 0.423 726 763 37 94.9% Detroit 5602 0.321 0.428 723 770 47 93.5% NY Mets 5505 0.322 0.416 722 737 15 97.9% Florida 5502 0.339 0.409 717 763 46 93.6% Chicago Cub 5584 0.324 0.440 703 796 93 86.8% Kansas City 5503 0.320 0.396 701 697 -4 99.5% Seattle 5507 0.317 0.391 699 683 -16 97.7% Arizona 5550 0.332 0.421 696 776 80 88.5% Houston 5462 0.322 0.408 693 718 25 96.5% Minnesota 5564 0.323 0.391 688 703 15 97.9% LA Dodgers 5433 0.326 0.395 685 700 15 97.9% San Diego 5502 0.333 0.391 684 716 32 95.3% Pittsburgh 5573 0.322 0.400 680 718 38 94.4% San Francis 5462 0.319 0.396 649 690 41 93.7% Washington 5426 0.322 0.386 639 674 35 94.5%Most teams last year weren't within 98% correct, at least by the way I calculated it. The way I did is actually a bit misleading, since the difference can be +/- 2% and still be labeled as "98% accurate". I used: 1- ABS[(act-calc)/act] if you need a program to do it within 10 minutes, it's too much for me. Just Excel. Takes about 1 minute.

Russ, can you explain base runs? And how can it be better and easier than the simple runs created, 98% accurate model? Well, simple runs created isn't 98% accurate, for one. It's a great "back of the envelope" calculation but can be improved upon by a pretty simple equation. Here's a great thread on Base Runs, started by it's inventor: Base Runs

I don't understand the more complex (3rd order, etc) formulas. There's not much to it. As was mentioned above, the 2nd order wins just looks at raw stats to estimate how many runs should have been scored and given up. I'm not a big fan of BP's way of doing it, since they basically use basic runs created (AB x OBP x SLG) to calculate the runs (they may have updated the methodology). I use BaseRuns, which is one of the better run estimators, IMO. Here's the the latest series probability: http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7391/569/400/win%20prob619.gif The BsR win% is essentially my 2nd order wins, which says that the Brewers are esentially a .500 team. BP's 3rd order goes the one extra step and adjusts for strength of schedule. The Brewers SOS is pretty neutral, so the 2nd and 3rd order wins are about the same. As Brett mentioned, the Brewers unique position of having a revolving door of rookie pitchers get blown up has really skewed the Brewer's pythagorean record. Their run distribution is all messed up as a result. I have an spreadsheet mostly updated. For anyone interested, I'll post an up to date version soon.

Unfortunately, every HR Lee hits is another nail in the "won't be able to sign him to a reasonable contract" coffin. Of course, it also further tempts a team to trade away the farm to get him this year...

Who's Geremi Gonzalez? A very bad pitcher. I have no idea why he's even on the team http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

Clark needed that stolen base http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Lee is a sac fly machine. Nice start!

If Hart didn't get a start with Jenkins on the bench and the Crew facing a lefty, he'd never get a start.