Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

rluzinski

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,362

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Am I the only one who feels like the Brewers have zero chance of even splitting this series?
  2. rluzinski
    How are those NOT strikes?!
  3. rluzinski
    Alien D fails us that time...
  4. rluzinski
    O my god, it's Pujols. Walk him now!!!!
  5. rluzinski
    Yeh, a K would have really been good, except you can't assume the double play.
  6. rluzinski
    I'm sorry but it won't be long before Hall's OPS is below .800. Add that to a bad OBP and average at BEST defense and..... well Al might have to stop saying "I told you so" over and over and over and over....
  7. rluzinski
    Walk Jenkins to pitch to struggling Hall. Darn. Make him pay!
  8. rluzinski
    Great, I get to friggin hear about how Eckstein is an "all star" now. He'll be 37 years old and a "former all-star." Gimmi a break.
  9. rluzinski
    This year the top 8 teams in SLG% are all in the top 8 in runs except Atlanta who is 9th in runs,is that just fluke? Look, the equation uses all the ranks you are talking about, that's why it's not a compelling argument. The numbers are all there; plug in any of those teams OBP and SLG and it will predict their runds scored pretty darn well. That equation tell you to multiply OBP by 1.6 and SLG by 1, ratio wise. I can't understand how you can argue that when you can SEE it's true from the equation and the graph. ALL the stats you are saying were the exact stats I used. Sorry, it's just frustrating that I apparently can't get my point accross. It's like me saying "5 + 4 is 9" and you saying, "no it's not, 5 is larger than 4." For OBP being such a dominant stat over all others What are you talking about?? Who said that? No one. SLG is very important, obviously. Why does point by point play into this? Um, that was the WHOLE point of this thread.
  10. rluzinski
    .819 OPS for Jenkins. Rumors of his demise were GREATLY exagerated http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Sure didn't take him long to get his stuff together.
  11. rluzinski
    There's Jenkins zwinging for HR's to tie it up! Too bad we GAVE them 2 runs http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  12. rluzinski
    Good for the Brewers to not pitch to Pujols. It's better to give a team free base runners.
  13. rluzinski
    I happen to question whether OPS is the way you judge if Player A is more valuable. I only meant that IF you were going to use OPS, PLAYER A is better. That's all. I didn't mean to insinuate that OPS is the best measure of a player's offensive worth. OXS is better even. So when looking at young players in the minors or in their first couple years...I consider batting average to be very important. I guess I see walk rate very important, because it indicates plate disipline; a skill many would say can't be improved upon very easily.
  14. rluzinski
    I think you're saying that the way we measure OBP and SLG, the OBP is more important - point by point - than the SLG% All I was saying is that 10 OBP = 16 SLG in the context of OPS. I have to concede that the very title of this thread was sensationalized for fun, causing many to assume an overstatement. Like I said, I am more than happy to use the true definition of "theory", unfortunetely some religiously motivated individuals have hijacked it's definition.
  15. rluzinski
    A theory supported by facts (yes, I know that is redundant) is often confused with facts on this site. By that definition nothing is fact. It's all just a person's perception afterall. That would be the philisophical definition of fact. Using the scientific definition of "theory" I am more than happy to call it that. Of course, people ignorant of the scientific method will say, "Ha, see, it's only a theory!" Either way I'm screwed. FYI, the only reason I am confident in my findings is because they AREN'T my findings and they aren't very profound or hard to prove. I just validated it with 2005 stats. If you disagree with my work PLEASE tell me why.
  16. rluzinski
    A fact or a theory? This isn't some long drawn out analysis, which includes assumption after assumption. It takes runs, OBP and SLG and shows 1 point of OBP = 1.6 points of SLG (using a linear model). What part do you take exception of? You never actually said. If I made a fundamental mistake tell me what it is. I certainly can't imagine what it would be. While that Bill james quote is a good one, I just don't see it applying here. I mean what I did was so darn straight forward. Again, tell me what you disagree with? Why do I feel like I'm having a creationism debate?
  17. rluzinski
    Sure seems to me where a team ranks in SLG compared to other teams will play as big or nearly as big a role as OBP in how high they rank in runs scored. That comment shows that you either didn't read my post or didn't understand it Use the equation. Watch it predict runs scored pretty well. Play with the numbers. 10 OBP points = 16 SLG points. SLG plays a HUGE role in runs scored, but not as big as OBP does. O, I also love how you fail to point out that the 2 teams with the highest OBP rank 1 and 2 in runs scored. You can cherry pick examples that "prove" your point, but that doesn't prove anything. Also, you act like I said SLG wasn't important at all, so you completely ignore it? That doesn't make sense. I said it's about 1.6. I didn't make it up, that's what is HAS BEEN this year. The more I look at your "analysis" the more I see how it only proves my point more. OBP SLG RUNS Texas .329 .476 492 Oakland .336 .398 426 Diff. +.007 -.078 -66 Oakland's OBP is a lousy 7 points higher, while they give up 78 points of SLG, and you think that proves that SLG is more important, point by point? Again, 10 OBP points = 16 SLG points. That was my point, that's it. I wouldn't be suprised with if equation blew up at extremes (like .200 OBP and .600 SLG) but that would be expected. The equation assumes linearity, which is wrong. All I was trying to show was: OBP SLG OPS Player A .400 .400 .800 Player B .300 .500 .800 Player A is more valuable. That's a fact, not my "opinion." EDIT: I should not called it a 'fact." I take it back!!!! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  18. rluzinski
    I'm sure Neyer has seen others do this already, it's not new at all. True SABR guys have alredy sworn off OPS and OxS anyway, since it weights types of hits (single, double, etcs) as 1, 2, 3, etc... this just isn't right if your aim is to gauge a player or team's ability to create runs. I like the linear weights method, personally. You can read more on it at tangotiger.net.
  19. rluzinski
    I go today and tomm. Sure would be nice to see a .500 team when I leave tomm..... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  20. rluzinski
    Well, I appreciate that they aren't trully 100% independant variables and that a better function of run scored would use the product of the two numbers, not the sum. I will be the first to admit that I am not a statistician, but my aims weren't to prove that the formula I dervied was the "right" one. While you can debate about the exact coefficients that should be used, it's clear that OBP will drive the runs function more than SLG. Again, this was JUST to show the OBP of OPS was more important. That's all, I swear!
  21. rluzinski
    I googled "walk off balk" and found a Milwaukee connection on the first try: LINK
  22. rluzinski
    Like would you rather have the 3rd best OBP or the 3rd best SLG? What I'm saying is 10 OBP points = ~16 SLG points. Clark, as a result, is more valuable this year than his OPS indicates.
  23. rluzinski
    -squared's run from 0 to 1. A 1 would indicate that runs could be explained entirely by OBP and SLG. .79 is actually very high considering you're only looking at two variables. That much I knew. Why are you suprised that OBP and SLG would predict runs so well? What other variable should I have in their, "battleness"? If you're looking at a team that has OBP of 300 and SLG of 400 you get 2*300+1.5*400=1200. In other words, they contribute equally to runs. I'm not sure exactly what you mean, but perhaps I didn't make it clear what I was trying to do. My point was all OPS of .800 are not created equal: .300 OBP .500 SLG: Runs = 1444 x .300 + 893 x .500 - 444 = 436 runs .400 OBP .400 SLG: Runs = 1444 x .400 + 893 x .400 - 444 = 491 runs
  24. rluzinski
    I give up figuring out what a balk even is, but I don't care! 2 under!!
  25. rluzinski
    Of course he doubles to prove me wrong! I've never doubted Chris!
×
×
  • Create New...