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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I don't know what ZiPS does exactly but most projection systems use 3-5 years of production, weighting the most recent production more. For example, if I recall correctly, Marcel uses 3 years and uses 5-3-2 weights. Not exactly sure how these rest-of-season projections weight 2011 production when it comes to partial seasons. As end said though, his 235 PA this year makes up a significant part of his MLB career and he's been REALLY bad so far.
  2. rluzinski
    I agree that we shouldn't be benching the guy for a marginal prospect but I disagree with your "he'll most likely get hot" comment (gambler's fallacy?) He has a ZiPS rest of season projection of .264/.318/.413. Factor in his below average defense and his looks decidedly below average. Of course, he's getting paid peanuts so that's not the end of the world but 3B is certainly not a strength for the Brewers.
  3. rluzinski
    Our bench is so bad that it would be hard to make a move that made it worse.
  4. rluzinski
    What if you pinch hit for your catcher and he gets hurt? That happens so often that you have to have 3 or 4 catchers just in case.
  5. rluzinski
    Does anyone else even care?Hey welcome to Brewerfan.net, Mr. Roenicke.Yeh, Wolf is probably being silly about it. Lucroy isn't going to start 162 games though, so most don't see it as a big deal. In contrast, you are obsessing about it. How many off speed pitches did Axford throw for strikes today? I noticed 1. He struck out the last batter despite throwing 5 balls. Not... good.
  6. rluzinski
    Does anyone else even care?
  7. rluzinski
    "How soon people forget how truly awful Yost & Macha were." I didn't think Macha was that bad compared to the average manager. I think the average manager is pretty poor, though.
  8. rluzinski
    Why does the #9 hitter on the little league team walk so much? He doesn't swing much, and pitchers can't throw strikes when he's up to bat. I will argue until the day that I die that unless you are talking about an elite hitter hitting in front of a non elite hitter (Prince for example), walks are mostly a product of the pitcher. On one hand, you suggest Counsell walks more because he swings less. On the other, you say that walks are mostly a product of the pitcher. How is that not a contradiction? Counsell has always walked a lot: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=52&position=2B/3B/SS&page=3&type=full Betancourt has never walked a lot: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=8585&position=SS&page=3&type=full It's obvious that the batter plays a HUGE role in his own walk rate, so you can't be suggesting otherwise. Are you saying that if a batter never swung, he would get as many walks as a guy like Counsell has averaged in a career? That a pitcher can only throw 3 strikes in 6 pitches, 90% of the time and that rate is largely independent of the batter's skill level? Either way, I would love to see some evidence for the position you are willing to argue foruntil you die. And please, no more little league analogies. Might as well compare MLB to slow pitch soft ball.
  9. rluzinski
    RR being asked last night about whether not having a lefty in the pen has hurt the Brewers: "It hasn't hurt us in any other games. But again, when you're facing Votto, it better be a left you really like... I think his average is better against lefties that righties." First, batting average is a terrible way to measure the performance expectation of a batter in general. When you consider the specific situation (2 out, runner on first, up by 1), batting average becomes SO not the point. You care about projected power. In his career, Votto's SLG is 110 points lower against lefties than righties. Second, he's referring to Votto's batting average against lefties over a two month period. 53 plate appearances. Sheesh.
  10. rluzinski
    "Agreed. He had to have known Votto's numbers against Loe going in" What was it, 6 AB? Let's not get crazy.
  11. rluzinski
    Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision. WHO is in the lineup is very important. Also, the silly #2/#8 thing managers do is just a joke. If a batter's second best position to bat is #8, he has no business ever batting 2nd. Moving a guy up and down the ineup one and two spots means almost nothing.
  12. rluzinski
    No point in using a loogy on Votto. He hits them just as well. Don't be brainwashed by the small samples the TV guys bombard us with. His career OPS is over 100 points lower against lefties. Just like every other lefty, he doesn't hit left handed pitchers as well. Even a mediocre lefty is going to project to do better against Votto than Loe. And this game absolutely sucked but the Brewers went 1-2 against a good team on the road. That's pretty much what we should expect.
  13. rluzinski
    They are their ZiPS rest-of-season projections from Fangraphs.com.
  14. rluzinski
    For the record, I am not giving that simulator my 100% endorsement. I am simply saying that it's founded on solid principles. I can't say the same for the baseballmusings one. This simulator is a very basic one. It assumes average base advancement for everyone, does not consider strikeouts and makes no consideration for the handedness of the pitcher. Presuming an average right handed pitcher, I think this will make a pretty decent estimate, however.
  15. rluzinski
    Bunting in front of Braun and Prince is just not smart. Bunting in the first 5 innings is not smart. Buunting in the 7th when you're down 3 runs is a horrible idea. If we are specifically talking about sac bunting, where the defense is given an opportunity to anticipate the attempt, I believe those are all absolutely correct. A couple of those sacrifices might have been more of a drag bunt, or at least the defense was not ready for it. In those cases, the non-zero chance of the bunter reaching base changes things a lot. I have just not been impressed with any of the analysis RR uses to make his decisions (well, what he's been willing to share with the public). He never gives me the sense that he has a firm understanding of what evidence he should be looking at, much less know how to use it.
  16. rluzinski
    Russ, the directions for that simulator say, "For player stats, assume players play [150] games per season," with the 150 being adjustable. Do we have to do something to equalize playing time for the guys we put in our lineups, e.g. making sure that they all have an equal number of ABs? Or does the simulator do that for us? Also, what would be the benefit of changing 150 to something else?I believe that is only used for the section that simulates player RBT and Run totals. The runs/game assumes that specific lineup. Anyone who wants to play, try to copy the text below, paste in MS notepad and save as a .txt file. You can then upload it. It's uses the ZIPS rest-of-season projections from Fangraphs.com LineupSimulator.com FileVersion=1.0Rickie Weeks 331 40 52 17 3 14 9 3Corey Hart 328 24 52 20 3 14 8 4Ryan Braun 407 40 71 25 4 21 15 3Prince Fielder 376 66 58 21 1 24 1 1Casey McGehee 360 29 63 21 1 11 1 1Jonathon Lucroy 317 27 59 16 1 8 3 1Yuni Betancourt 360 15 64 20 3 7 2 2Nyger Morgan 271 20 57 12 4 1 19 8Starting Pitcher 324 15 50 12 0 4 0 0
  17. rluzinski
    You suggested that a pitcher's BABIP even's out over the course of a year. Plenty of sample size for the skill to shine over the noise. That is just 100% incorrect. Again, you can use highschool math to estimate the MINIMUM statistical noise associated with a certain sample size. Perhaps you get involved in so many circular arguments here because you don't even attempt to investigate the counter arguments.
  18. rluzinski
    "Not if he [Greinke] keeps leaving FBs between the thighs and waist over the middle of the plate. Next we'll read about his LOB% as flukey luck, but when you watch the games he tends to give up hits in bunches, and hits on bad pitches. I don't think anyone is every lucky or unlucky for an entire season." You can use highschool math to estimate how much of the yearly change in BABIP can be attributed to statistical luck for the average pitcher. Go to Fangraphs and look at any starting pitcher's BABIP from year to year. It's pretty obvious that there's some luck involved. Here's Halladay's: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1303&position=P&page=7&type=full If you want to argue that his true talent at suppressing hits on balls-in-play jumps up and down every season, you are going to need to supply some evidence. And the thing about BABIP is that a small difference makes for a pretty large difference in ERA.
  19. rluzinski
    The Brewers are the favorites but not by a heck of a lot. -130 moneyline. After you take away the vig, they are have a 55% chance of winning. So I guess we have a 45% chance of reading about how unbelievable it is that the Brewers are losing/lost.
  20. rluzinski
    You want to move a guy 1 position down in the order based on 2 months, sure. It's still a small sample. though. That said, it's not like McGehee had a great projection coming into the season: Preseason ZiPS: .272/.322/.430 Updated ZiPS: .266/.320/.420 He's making about as many outs as he was projected to. Lucroy's updated projection is pretty close to that already, so if RR wants to go with the hotter player, I wouldn't argue.
  21. rluzinski
    Adding 4% to the overall record is the rule of thumb. BR.net averages them by the whole wins and losses but you can find them here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2010-standings.shtml Average MLB Home Records: 2010: 45-35 (.563) <-- probably should be dividing by 81 to get W%, not 802009: 44-36 (.550)2008: 45-35 (.563)2007: 43-37 (.538)2006: 44-36 (.550) For example, if the Brewers are a true 87 win team, that's a .531 W%. We'd expect about a .491 W% from them on the road going forward (assuming average opponents).
  22. rluzinski
    If they cared about every bad split the media makes a big deal about, they wouldn't leave their house/hotel. They've just happened to do especially poor on the road so far but I don't expect it to continue.
  23. rluzinski
    "Many people on here call RR a small ball manager while also stating that he is too aggressive on the base paths. That is an oxymoron you cannot have it both ways. He is not a station to station manager therefore it is not small ball" To small ball strategy is scoring runs with low power players. That includes steeling bases and taking an extra base. That's the way I've always seen it, at least. And I don't think manager talent correlates 100% with team wins. Not even close. Skill and just luck play huge roles
  24. rluzinski
    People always talks about how easy a bunt "should" be. Ironically, it's usually after a failed bunt attempts. Bunt attempts fail fairly often so apparently it simply isn't as automatic as some suggest.
  25. rluzinski
    There aren't very many baseball players with a projected OBP at .300 or below who get to play in the majors, much less start.
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