rluzinski

I guess you are probably right. Of course, if a bad hitter is "good at hitting breaking pitches", what does that really tell us? Against a breaking ball pitcher, he goes from bad to less bad, mediocre, average, good, great? I just find that kind of baseball decision making underwhelming at best.

What exactly is a SP with "good breaking stuff"? Does Tim Stauffer really qualify as one? Has Kotsay really hit well against righties with good breaking stuff in the last 3+ years? Was the sample statistically significant? Because of sample size issues, it really has no chance to be, so did the Brewers do a comprehensive league wide study based on multiple years of data? If they did and know the magnitude of the average platoon split, what was their projection for Kotsay hitting against Tim Stauffer? Does it really make up for his projected performance in CF? Do we really think RR looks at that that kind of data? Do you think the Brewers make it available to him? My guess is that RR's comment was either based on Kotsay saying he likes to hit breaking pitches or a casual observation made by RR while watching Kotsay this year. I don't believe the Brewers are a particular sabermetric club to begin with. Kotsay has a current ZiPS projection of .251/.315/.352. He obviously would be expected to perform better against a righty but we'd have to assume some massive advantage above and beyond that to make him a good play considering his projected defense in CF (RR comments about Kotsay being a good fit in CF at Miller Park is.... unpersuasive). Like endaround said, I believe that RR put some thought into this.. I am just highly skeptical of the quality of it. Of course, I am just speculating though. Using pitch f/x data, we know that different kinds of pitches have different platoon splits: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/platoon-splits-2.0/ It would be interesting to see if certain hitters do especially good or bad against certain classes of pitchers with regard to the kinds of pitches they throw (independent of their handedness). Someone probably already has.

"Russ' point about leaving Wolf in to take his beating doesn't look too bad." I wanted Wolf to stay in there because I thought that most likely, he would pitch OK going forward. On the balance, pitchers who get rocked early settle down. Of course, he was already at 75 pitches so he didn't have much more quality innings left to give.

30 out of 30 GMs would pick Greinke, considering equal long term contracts. I really don't think that is a stretch to say that.

....no it wasn't.Ahh, missed the sacrifice. I believe it still was a sub-optimal move because of the walk = run situation.

RR's IBB and more crappy defense gives away another run. I didn't get that IBB in the first place. The DP was already in effect. I honestly don't understand anything RR does. He must be on a whole 'nother plane.

Just watched Weeks' great defensive play from a couple innings back. I can't believe how far to the left of 2B he was when he made that throw. Amazing.

I give him crap but GREAT AB by Kotsay to draw a walk against a LHP.

Your belief is based on some very bad logic.Really? So what you're saying is you have no problem at all with your leadoff hitter striking out 184 times per season? Ok, I disagree with your "logic" then.Run value of batting events based on the base out situation: http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html On average (weighted by the average frequency of each base/out situation), a K is worth -.31 runs. A generic out is worth -.30 runs. So we already know that a K and a ball in play out are very close in average run value. A leadoff hitter will have significantly more PA with the bases empty, where a K = BIP out. So that already minuscule difference shrinks even more. We could look at the average base/out situation for each batting order position and come up with customized average run values for each batting event. My guess is that K's matter least for the leadoff hitter (lots of PA with no one on) by a wide margin. Next might be 3rd, since they have the most PAs with 2 out. It would be an interesting exercise but probably not particularly useful, since strikeouts aren't particular detrimental to begin with, compared to any other out. So that's my logic. Feel free to tell me what part of it you disagree with.

K rate is roughly proportional to a player's SLG. So if you want Weeks to bat 3rd because he has power, great. If you want him to bat 3rd because he strikes out a lot, that makes little sense.I'm saying he profiles more as a #3 because of power and OBP. He profiles less as a #1 because of his K's. That's my belief. Your belief is based on some very bad logic.

Of all batting positions where Ks don't matter leadoff is the place where it matters the least. I knew I would be pounced on for that point, but I firmly believe it. 184 K's last year? My belief is he's only the leadoff hitter for 1 AB per game. When he follows the pitcher, who usually makes an out, any guys on base would be his responsibility to hit in. He K's at the rate of a 3-hitter which will be where he lands next year.K rate is roughly proportional to a player's SLG. So if you want Weeks to bat 3rd because he has power, great. If you want him to bat 3rd because he strikes out a lot, that makes little sense.

Wolf should have known better than to have a bad performance today? What a silly criticism. And this isn't 1995. $10 mil isn't much for a starting pitcher in free agency. It get's you a little above average starting pitcher on average.

Wow, glad I did not give up on this game!

Talk about not letting reality get in the way of a personal bias. He pitched well on the balance last year and has a 4.11 ERA this year. He probably won't be worth his salary in the last year of his contract but he's been fine with the Brewers so far.

Studies have shown that on average, starters who get rocked early do not perform worse than expected going forward. I'm sure many will find that hard to believe but it's true. If Wolf has his velocity (which isn't saying much) and nothing else seems wrong with him physically, I don't think we should expect him to continue pitching below his normal expectations. And since his normal expectations (4.24-4.5 ERA?) are better than any of the long relief guys we have available, so he's probably our best bet. That's my reasoning at least. And there's been a semi-recent trend (5-10 years) to NOT yank SP when they struggle early, so I think the league generally agrees. Of course, SP pitcher performance degrades as the game goes on, so a 4.5 ERA SP might perform more like a 5.0 one in the 5th. For that reason, I don't have an issue pulling a 3/4 SP type guy like Wolf after 75ish innings.

According to this: http://www.fangraphs.com/...Brewers&dh=0&season=2011 The Brewers have a 9% chance of winning. I see no reason to go to the bullpen.

More aggressive base running.

Kotsay's OPS now below .600.

We get it.

Kotsay starting in CF and batting 2nd. This is just inconceivable to me. I understand Gomez needing a day off but Kotsay is his first choice? Hart HAS played CF before. He's easily below average but at least he can cover some ground. Hell, flip Hart and Kotsay around in both fielding position AND batting order.

Many of those teams with a losing record in April didn't finish with a winning record because they weren't above average teams. The real question is, starting with X-X record, what are the odds that a team projected for X wins will finish with enough wins to qualify for the playoffs. The general consensus was that Brewers was something like an 86 win team (53% win percentage). I don't think we would adjust that estimate very much after only a month. As a rough estimate, we can assume a binomial distribution (independent trials) and give the Brewers a 53% chance of winning each of their remaining games. It's very easy from that to say what the odds are that the Brewers will finish with a certain number of wins. How that win total translates into odds of making the playoffs is a little trickier. We could look at recent historical data (era with wildcard) to give us an idea but I'm not sure how useful that would be.

The behind-the back-flip is nice but other SS do that as well. What made the play so spectacular was the flip in conjunction with the high barehand catch, which allowed for the very quick throw from Weeks. The transition from Betancourt to Weeks to Fielder was so uniquely quick.

I'd certainly be happier with this result if I believed that the Red Sox, Rays, Royals and Indians were playing to their talent levels. I still think we have major disadvantages in the interleague schedule which means this poor start could easily sink us for the entire year. In terms of projected wins, how much harder do you think the Brewers interleague schedule is relative to the Reds or Cards?

I haven't seen anything to say that Betancourt's range isn't as bad as everyone has said. His arm has been better than advertised so far, though.

Even after having the offense perform historically bad for over a week, a win tomorrow puts the Brewers at 3 games under .500. That's nothing to celebrate but it could be a heck of a lot worse.