rluzinski

He can just blame Lucroy for not executing. Win win!

The point is, the more expected IP for your relievers isn't some hidden, secondary cost. You aren't paying for a starting pitcher's ERA, you are paying for his ERA for a certain number of IP. Take two starting pitchers with the same projected ERA, You will roughly pay 1/5th more for the starter that can go 6 IP vs.the one that averages 5. If you go with the 5 IP guy, perhaps you beef up the bullpen (find a guy who can go two innings) or for upgrading your offense. In the end, you should be paying the same amount for runs saved or produced over average for whatever, though. Also, I think the extra strain on the bullpen from having a bad rotation might be overstated. Last year, starters in the NL averaged 66% of the total IP. Brewer starters had the second worst starting ERA (4.65) and they pitched 64% of the Brewers total innings. That's 35 extra innings over 162 games, or 1 extra IP every 4 or 5 games.

What does that mean, exactly? A run saved on defense is worth more than a run scored on offense? If it's the 6th run scored vs. the 4th run saved, sure. But a run is a run, otherwise. I understand your premise, but a bad rotation also can really tax a bullpen and thus make an overall pitching staff even worse. Besides the wear on a bullpen of having to pick up so many innings when a rotation is bad, it also forces a manager to use his weaker bullpen pitchers more often. When starters are leaving the game to early to often, the manager has to use the middle relievers/long reliever more often in an effort to eat up innings and not burn out their end of the pen guys who usually are better. I guess I don't see it that way. You have a group of pitchers that you project their ERA for, weighted by IP. If they are bad, they are bad. If you have to use your middle and long relievers more often, it's because they are perceived as being the better option over the starter who just got yanked.

Melvin does this stuff every year it seems. He must have a quota for AAA airline tickets. And then RR makes it worse by batting 2 lefties in a row. I look forward to Kotsay batting against a lefty in an important situation and the possibility of a Yo pinch hit!

I've heard it suggested that there should be a line fairly close first base but towards 2B. If the runner does not cross that line, the pitcher can't throw over to 1B. I know, it will never happen though, since baseball is the only sport that has already optimized all it's rules. Ahhhh, the perfect game.

You don't need to tell me how the stats work. I understand it. In the example I gave, player 1 would have had higher slugging because of the singles instead of walks. I simply stated that some people overvalue a walk. In this very thread you said that Fielder was way more valuable, and it was not even close. I have no clue how someone can come to that conclusion unless they overvalue walks. Because their OPS and wOBA are very close to the same over their career. I am not saying it is not very important, just that some people seem to overvalue it...or they are overstating things to try to prove a point? I called them "note even close" (a claim I have since retracted as I don't wish to argue semantics) because they have the same projected SLG but Prince's projected OBP is around 40 points higher. That prompted you to suggest that some might prefer a player with the lower BA AND SLG because they prefer walks? No one is going to think a walk has more value than a single, so you will have to excuse me for assuming you were keeping SLG constant.

Yes, an average hit is worth about half a run while an average walk is worth 1/3rd a run. I believe the largest gap between their worth is with men on 2nd and 3rd with two out, where a single is worth around 1.5 runs vs. 25 runs for a walk. I prefer Braun because he is less streaky.... As a fan, I can see preferring the more consistent producer but that doesn't really make him more valuable as far as I can see (at least from game to game). I don't think more consistent run production from a single player in the lineup would really translate into more wins for a team, and that's all that really matters when we are measuring the value of a hitter. Statistics get relied on too much in baseball. The way the game is, you can use them more than just about any sport. They are still just an analysis tool though and not the be all, end all evaluator. For example, Corey Hart batting 2nd and Casey McGehee batting 5th around Braun and Fielder wouldn't put up half as good of stats as if they were relied on as the meat of the order. Corey gets a lot of fast balls there and McGehee gets runners on base. You have to adjust for lots of things like that and use your eyes and common sense in tandem with the stats and sabermetrics, which are excellent and tell a lot of the story, but not everything. I would counter that opinion without evidence is relied on too much in baseball. I agree that statistics is not the end all be all of player evaluation. Scouting information provides a mountain of data that raw statistics can't. Teams need both. That said, your example of why stats can't be relied on exclusively is a terrible one, IMO. If you want to formulate a compelling argument, you have carefully define your theory and then back that theory up with evidence. That evidence should be measurable and as objective as possible. In baseball, that evidence is often in the form of a record of events from previous games. It could also be a record of direct observation (professional scouting). In your example, it isn't clear what your theory is (McGee batting 2nd and Hart 5th would result in both performing much worse?) and you provide no evidence to back it up. Corey get's a lot of fastballs batting 2nd? Do you have evidence of that? How many fastballs? Does that improve his performance? By how much? McGehee gets runners on base? I'm not sure what that even means. Do you mean that he's an "RBI guy"? What are the qualities of an RBI guy and goes McGehee really possess them? Most importantly, if any of that is true, why can't you use a record of past games as evidence to support your theory?

Gomez on the other hand has the ability to get in scoring position at will any time he's on, including via fielder's choices, will almost always score from second on singles and from first on doubles. If you took the time to use reasonable numbers to test your theory, I think you would come to the conclusion that Gomez can only hurt Braun's RBI's numbers. There is little Gomez can do on the base paths that can overcome his bad OBP. Assuming everything else equal, a guy getting on base 4% more often in front of Braun is going to have a more positive effect on Braun's RBI's than Gomez being able to take an extra base.

My guess is that while they understand it's part of the game, they don't like that part of the game. The largest criticism about baseball is probably its pace, so watching a pitcher throws over to first three times in an AB, when the runner has a one step lead might annoy some (me!).

Presuming equal slugging, the batter with the higher average will have more singles and the batter with the lower BA will have more extra base hits. This stuff has been studied and in the current run environment, it's basically a wash in terms of run production. Basically, the value of BA is already captured in OBP and SLG since it increases both. You can look up the average run value of each batting event. wOBA basically uses those values. You can even find find the average run value of each batting event depending on who's on base and the number of outs: http://www.tangotiger.net/lwtsrobo.html Nothing is ever completely "settled" but this stuff has been studied to death. Anyone who is familiar with this stuff is probably not undervaluing BA.

I've seen this argument before and think it's a complete fallacy. You're telling me that with Weeks on first, Braun and Prince up after Gomez, he'll get the same pitches to hit in a 2-0, 3-1 count as he could hitting say 8th in the order? I doubt anyone would argue such a thing. So now if you agree with that, then obviously there are variations of how you're pitched depending on who is coming up, and as such it's got SOMETHING to do with it. I wouldn't say it's an overwhelming factor, but it's more definitely relevant. I'm sure it is a factor but I believe that the effect is overstated by the average baseball fan. You can always look at stuff like this as a starting point: http://www.actasports.com/stats_detail/?StatId=71[/url] An average #2 gets 3% more fastballs than a #8. So if a guy averages 4 pitches per PA, he'll get one extra fastball every 8 PA? Of course, it's hard to say how much of that difference is even dependent on batting order position. I think much of that difference may simply be the result of the types of batters that typically bat in those respective positions. Not trying to pretend any of this proves anything conclusively. It does seem to suggest subtle differences as opposed to dramatic ones.

I've seen this argument before and think it's a complete fallacy. You're telling me that with Weeks on first, Braun and Prince up after Gomez, he'll get the same pitches to hit in a 2-0, 3-1 count as he could hitting say 8th in the order? I doubt anyone would argue such a thing. So now if you agree with that, then obviously there are variations of how you're pitched depending on who is coming up, and as such it's got SOMETHING to do with it. I wouldn't say it's an overwhelming factor, but it's more definitely relevant. I'm sure it is a factor but the effect but I believe that the effect is overstated by the average baseball fan. You can always look at stuff like this as a starting point: http://www.actasports.com/stats_detail/?StatId=71 An average #2 gets 3% more fastballs than a #8. So if a guy averages 4 pitches per PA, he'll get one extra fastball every 8 PA? Of course, it's hard to say how much of that difference is even dependent on batting order position. I think much of that difference may simply be the result of the types of batters that typically bat in those respective positions. Not trying to pretend any of this proves anything conclusively. It does seem to suggest subtle differences as opposed to dramatic ones.

This is baseball, where a couple weeks of results means nothing. Go look up up how each has been the last 3 years and you will understand where their detractors are coming from. I will enjoy when either does well but that doesn't mean we should feel like they are the best choice to play.

The difference between a .350 OBP and .300 OBP is 2o year career in the majors vs. AAA.

I have never been a big fan of Escobar but I would take him no question. The scouts say he is a talented defender, so he can develop into a bad offensive player (as a opposed to terrible) and still be more valuable than Betancourt. That said, I don't even compare the two, since my beef has always been playing Betancourt over any ol' defensive specialist.

OPS is not a very good stat, as it weights OBP equal to SLG. 1.7*OBP + SLG is much better (and is basically wOBA). BY FAR the most likely explanation for Fielder's every other year thing is luck. It's like flipping a coin 4 times and wondering why it went heads/tails/heads/tails. All we heard about with regard to Gomez is that he had a new approach and it would lead to better performance. His spring training was evidence that it was already working. Had he gotten off to a good start in 40 AB, that would have "proved" that his new approach was continuing to do so. Perhaps Braun has fundamentally changed his approach and it will result in a dramatic change in his walk rate but we have these kinds of discussions every April. My best guess for his walk rate going forward would be whatever an updated projection says it will be.

Hopefully the return of Hart (tomorrow?) means an end to the embarrassment of having Kotsay start regularly AND Gomez batting 2nd. It's just insane that Gomez currently has a .287 OBP and that's only 6 points below his career OBP! Who the hell would think that is a good choice to bet before Braun and Fielder? I know, let it go....... I wish I could.

I think it is worth noting that even a terrible major league SS is going to be a decent defender overall. SS is a difficult position, compared to say 1B, LF or RF. Hell, Bentancourt probably projects to be an above average corner outfielder.

People come up with all kinds of explanations for why production from a player changes in the short term. That's always after the fact, though. It's always, "Hey this guy has done well in 60 PA, I think it's because of a change in approach. Yeh, the batter agrees that is why." We will hear about a dozen or more adjustments by Brewer batters before the season is over. I doubt you will ever improve your projections of players by considering that kind of thing. A batter can't go 10 AB without supposedly changing something. But yes, if Braun keeps doing better, I agree that he will be better. If he doesn't or Fielder gets better, Fielder will be better. What did Braun say he changed, anyway?

You could take it a step farther and look at 2007 - 2010 but weigh the more recent seasons more. That get's you even closer to a true projection. Of course, you could simply just use one of the many publicly available projection systems. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I already gave Fielder and Braun's "rest of season" ZiPS projections for 2011. That's an updated projection that does give a bit of weight to this season's production (as it should). I gave their slash stats but here's the projected wOBA as well: Fielder: .403 wOBA Braun: .396 wOBA Those projected IBB for Fielder are only worth about 2/3rds that of an unintentional walk, since wOBA weights batting events by their run value. That makes it closer but Fielder is still the king for now. It will be interesting to see if Braun can flip that around for 2012. EDIT: Looks like wOBA actually weights an IBB proportional to the player's overall wOBA. Check out the comments here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-visual-look-at-woba/

I agree. If 4.5 runs per game is average, Scoring that 6th run is less valuable than keeping that 5th run from scoring. When we are talking long term signings of pending free agents, its rather difficult to project those sorts of things, however. I wouldn't NOT sign Fielder because we'll have enough offense in 2013.

Yes, and that has been pointed out already a number of times. If someone is putting ANY stock on UZR numbers so far, I agree that it is too much.

What does that mean, exactly? A run saved on defense is worth more than a run scored on offense? If it's the 6th run scored vs. the 4th run saved, sure. But a run is a run, otherwise. As far as who the Brewers should go after, I guess you can make that argument that we already have a good idea what Fielder wants and know he won't be worth that to the Brewers. There's a decent chance that will be true with Greinke and Marcum as well, though.

Come on, really? Why exaggerate? How can it not be close? If you are talking offense you have to also include base running, which Braun has a leg up on Fielder. I think in terms of overall offense, they are pretty close to the same. I would personally give the small edge to Braun.I'm talking about everything the player does as a batter. And yes, that includes not making outs. If making less outs as a batter is not included in the discussion of who is the "better hitter" than this whole discussion unravels, IMO. It means that if a hitter swings at every pitch when he has three balls, he'll never walk but will be the "better hitter" if he can get even one single. I believe that Fielder is clearly the more VALUABLE hitter to his team right now because his OBP projects to be around 40 points higher than Braun's with about the same SLG. Here are their "rest of season" ZiPS projections for 2011: Fielder .282 / .403 / .535 / .938Braun .301 / .366 / .541 / .907 I should not have said "it's not even close" if only because it invites a semantical argument but the above difference is significant. And even if you remove ALL of Fielder's projected IBB (which wouldn't be fair and we can get into why if anyone is interested), he still has about a 15 point OBP advantage over Braun. But if you can be the better hitter white having less value to your team, I'm answering the wrong question.

Yes, fans will always LIKE the high BA free swinger more than the patient walker. Both project to have about the same SLG with Fielder projected to have a 40+ point OBP edge on Braun. I hope I don't have to explain why that makes a huge difference. In terms of who's worth more overall runs to their offense, it's not even close. Fielder is clearly the more valuable hitter right now. Braun might be more fun to watch but that does not correlate to "better".