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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    If I had to bet, all else will not remain equal and we are not going to field a team of AAAA players in 2013 waiting for some draft picks to develop... that's just not the Melvin/Attanasio m.o. The Brewers are not destined to bad in 2013 but there is no escaping the fact that Melvin has weakened the future teams for the now. Melvin gained perhaps 7 wins for 2011 by trading away prospects that project to be worth maybe 7 wins in the seasons to come. It is what it is. Now, one of the things I like about the trades was that Melvin will still have the opportunity to shift some of that talent back to the future if things don't go well. If the the Brewers find themselves 10 games out in late June, they could still cash in Fielder. If 2011 isn't going well, they could trade their new starting pitchers. It's like going "all in" but still being able to get some of your money back if you don't like your next card.
  2. rluzinski
    Perez apparently played good defense, so much of that hatred was unfair. He was just a horrible hitter. And scouts and fans in general also seem to think Betencourt is well below average as well, so not sure why you are focusing on the stat guys. It's not often that everyone agrees!
  3. rluzinski
    The first MLB 2011 projected standing (that I am aware of) are out: Cairo 2011 Projected Standings Projections UsedDepth Charts 28% chance of the Brewers winning the Central, 37% chance of making the post season. I guess I eyeballed it at around 50% but I probably overestimated their chance of winning the wildcard. Just too many teams in the running and it only takes one to luck themselves to 90 wins. As the author warns, it's really early to be doing something like this, since rosters are far from set for many teams.
  4. rluzinski
    I don't agree with the premise of this thread. As end said, I month tells you very little, good or bad. If Fielder has a terrible April, I will barely change my expectations for him. If Betencourt has a great April, I will still think he is a very bad baseball player.
  5. rluzinski
    I would too but: 1. A weak farm system can take many years to restock. A stocked MLB roster can be largely gone in two. 2. The Brewers aren't "stacked" at the MLB level. I think they are a good team and certainly a playoff contender but we aren't looking at a team that it projected to win 95 games are anything. For the record, I liked the off season moves. I think Melvin did a great job maximizing the talent he could trade for with what he gave up but there is most certainly a downside as well. It's easy to dismiss that downside right now but I suspect it won't be as easy in three years.
  6. rluzinski
    The only time having a righty heavy lineup really hurts IMO is when an opponent can adjust their rotation to throw extra righties. How often did that happen last year?
  7. rluzinski
    McGehee and Gamel's ZiPS projections are somewhat close: Mat Gamel: .265/.337/.430 Casey McGehee: .272/.322/.430 While McGehee might be a bit below average defensively, I am not optimistic about Gamel ever being that at 3B. Talking strictly in terms of getting the most production out of 3B in 2011, I would think McGehee edges out Gamel. McGehee has had 1.5 good seasons offensively and probably projects to be a a little above average for 2011. If the Brewers want Gamel to start at 3B, I think they would be better of trying to trade McGehee than making him a bench player. It's a tough situation. And for the record, there's always an article crediting any sudden upswing in offensive production to some mechanics change. I am certain that sometimes it's true but I find that kind of evidence very uncompeling.
  8. rluzinski
    If the Brewers, Reds and Cards are all roughly equal, the Brewers have about a 30% chance of winning the division. And if they don't, perhaps a 20% chance of winning the WC? A post season appearance might be coin-flip odds. I'll take it.
  9. rluzinski
    Lucroy's ZiPS projection: .256/.318/.377/.695 NL Catchers, 2010: .253/.325/.388/.713 I certainly hope that Lucroy can beat that projection. I'm hopeful that he can in the OBP department. Minor League StatsMajor League Stats
  10. rluzinski
    You have yet to respond to the data that Betancourt was a win better with the bat than Escobar despite having the same OBP. You can continue to repeat your argument, but it's not supported by actual data. Unless you think a win is basically irrelevant. I don't. Another SS with a terrible OBP had negative offensive value to his team last year. How is that fact at odds with anything I've said here? Why would I think that one win is irrelevant? You've lost me.
  11. rluzinski
    Statistical based IP projections usually involve just taking a weighted average of previous IP. Like IP2010 x .5 + IP2009 x .3 x IP2008 x .2. Not very scientific. I think we all could come up with better estimates, since we can consider age, injury history, etc... I think ZiPS is too pessimistic and James' is way to optimistic. James is basically assuming that these is almost no chance of Marcum getting hurt next year.
  12. rluzinski
    But throwing in OBP alone to support the argument is weak. My argument was and is, when you know a SS has significantly below average defense and a sub .300 OBP, unless he has some real power, everything else is basically irrelevant. It just isn't going to add up to every day starter material. I find that argument to be pretty rock solid and I think you are the only person here who is taking issue with it. I get it; you think that some people's opinions of Betancourt are based more on his reputation than on an objective analysis of his statistics. I'm sure that's true but it's largely irrelevant, since his reputation seems to mirror reality. If he doesn't project to be replacement level, he's pretty darn close.
  13. rluzinski
    A quick comparison of the Brewers', Reds' and Cards' starting rotation, using ZiPS projections. I first assume that each team needs 162 x 6 = 972 IP from their starters for a year. I then added up the ZiPS projected IP of the top 5 pitchers for each team. I gave the remaining innings to a pretend 5 ERA pitcher for the Brewers and Cards and to Bailey for the Reds (to try to account for their superior depth). I also subtracted .3 ERA from Marcum and Greinke’s projected ERA (WAG… easier division but terrble team defense): Brewers: PLAYER IP ERAGreinke 222 2.98Marcum 138 3.49Gallardo 160 3.49Wolf 198 4.09Capuano 111 4.22Replace. 143 5.00--------------------------Total: 972 3.80 Cardinals: PLAYER IP ERAWainright 215 2.85Carpent 162 3.33Garcia 117 3.53Westbrook 103 4.11Lohse 123 4.62Replace. 252 5.00--------------------------Total: 972 3.93 Reds: PLAYER IP ERAWood 178 3.64Volquez 108 3.66Cueto 191 4.01Arroyo 201 4.21Leake 168 4.34Bailey 126 4.47--------------------------Total: 972 4.06 I realize that Cappy isn't even signed this year and I am suspicious that he's ready to put up a 4.22 ERA in 111 IP if he does pitch for the Brewers. It might be more realistic to put Narveson's 4.7 ERA there instead.
  14. rluzinski
    I would like the Brewers to at least take a look at Renteria if he could be had for a reasonable price. He appears to still be right around average defensively and might be expected to put up something like a .260/.320/.360 line. Give Counsel 40 starts against righties and I think you might have reasonable production out of the SS position. I know he was pissed off at the $1 mil offer that the Giants offered him but I wonder if $3-4 mil would be enough to entice him. You might even be able to trade Betancourt and cash to a team for an A ball reliever and save $1 mil there. Of course, Renteria's demands might be delusional but it would be worth at least checking.
  15. rluzinski
    You already unearthed the data when you bothered to look at Betancourt's projection vs league average. It told a much more revealing story than just looking at OBP. I bothered to look at all the data when this trade went down. His 16 HRs last year has been quoted numerous time in this thread, so I didn't think it was necessary to point out that he's shown above average power as a SS. I focused on his OBP because that's what ruins his offensive value. Again, when a guy has a sub .300 career OBP, he's kind of screwed. I didn't think I had to "reveal" that Betancourt's offense wasn't really a strength since most seem to already recognize that. I hope my subsequent posts were helpful to those who didn't.
  16. rluzinski
    My point was simple; when a hitter projects to have a sub .300 OBP; his offensive contributions to his team is going to be very limited. I didn't think I was going out on a limb by suggesting that. And I'd be happy to unearth some data that would change my opinion of Betencourt, so please don't take the easy way out and accuse me of bias. Argue the facts, not the person.
  17. rluzinski
    I wouldn't pencil Capuano in yet though. Unless I missed something he hasn't signed, and now that the Brewers traded for a couple pitchers he might want to go someplace where he might have a better chance of starting. Just my opinion. Would love to have Capuano here though.I wouldn't either. Furthermore, even if I did, I wouldn't pencil him in for a 4.22 ERA. I just took the top 5 projected starting pitchers listed on the Brewers' ZiPS projections. I probably should have used Narveson and his 4.7 ERA.
  18. rluzinski
    If you believe that the result of a die roll isn't really luck, then then you are going to believe that baseball isn't about luck either. It then becomes a useless semantical argument. When I refer to luck in baseball, I have probability theory in mind. These guys AREN'T robots, so even if everything is exactly the same, a guy isn't always going to throw his pitch the same, the batter isn't always going to take exactly the same swing, a fielder isn't always going to take get the same jump and on and on. So, you don't predict that batter A will ALWAYS get a hit against pitcher B, even if you know EVERYTHING about the situation. Batter A has a certain probability of getting a hit. All sports of luck in it but frm game to game, baseball sure has a lot of it. It's why they really need 162 games to even things out. If they playedf 16 games, the odds of the best teams making the post season would plummet.
  19. rluzinski
    FIP and xFIP also takes sequencing out of the equation. For instance, while FIP assumes HRs are all worth 1.4 runs, some teams might hit a bunch with men on one year.
  20. rluzinski
    I guess what I don't get is after one season of baseball you have much more information about a player than football. Spring Training, regular season and playoffs could add up to almost 200 games. With football you are looking at 24 tops. I don't think you can just look at total games played and conclude one season of baseball offers more data than one one season of football. For instance, offensively, a psotional player only gets 5 "touches" a game. Also, the spread of talent could be closer in baseball than football (I have no idea). The difference between replacement level and average is pretty small, after all.
  21. rluzinski
    Looking at some ZiPS projections for the starting rotation: Grienke: 222 IP, 2.98 ERA* Marcum: 138 IP, 3.49 ERA* Gallardo: 160 IP, 3.49 ERA Wolf: 198 IP, 4.09 ERA Capuano: 111 IP, 4.22 ERA *NL projections. Adjustment a WAG. Took AL projection and subtracted .5 ERA to account for moving to the NL and added .2 ERA for having to deal with the Brewer's terrible defense. Total guess is 90 wins but I have some grave concerns about the team defense.
  22. rluzinski
    I don't see any benefit in focusing on OBP. It's an easy way to highlight his limitations as a hitter, so I found it beneficial. The guy isn't a good hitter, but then again, most shortstops aren't either. Betancourt 2011 ZiPS projection: .266/.292/.392 (playing in AL) Average AL SS, 2008-10: .264/.317/.372 Looks like he might not even project to hit as well as even an average SS but he's probably expected to be close. It would be nice if some shortstops moved from Lake Woebegone, but sometimes even good teams can live with below average players. The question isn't whether the Brewers can live with Betancourt starting at SS; it's whether he's their best available option for 2011. The alternative could be below average and still be better than Betancourt.
  23. rluzinski
    I would explore extending any above average player. If Greinke is open to 3/$51 mil, I would be both surprised and excited.
  24. rluzinski
    Here's his whole career. UZR and Total Zone are in terms of runs above average. For the fan scouting report, 50 is average (standard deviation of 20): Year: .................. UZR TZ SCOUT2005: 60 games 0.5 / -3 / 862006: 157 games 0.0 / 2 / 822007: 155 games -4.3 / -1 / 692008: 153 games -11.4 / -8 / 392009: 134 games -16.7 / -12 / 352010: 151 games -9.5 / -2 / 34 Even knowing all the limitations of defensive metrics, it's hard for me to believe that Betancourt is an even average SS defensively. Couple that with his sub .300 career OBP, it's clear to me that he should not be starting every day.
  25. rluzinski
    Gomez was a prospect who's been below average but above replacement level and is still relatively cheap. As pointed out, there are plenty of players in the NFL who are in the same situation and they get plenty of chances as well.
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