rluzinski

But the question isn't whether he's done it before; it's whether he's good at it.

I'm sure Betancourt's offensive numbers will pick up substantially but to call a .238 OBP and a .514 OPS "not awful" is unjustifiable, to be kind. Betancourt's projected offensive production for a SS is not awful but the results so far have been, no question.

Without knowing how many attempts that took, all I can look at his line and it was terrible. Would it have been worse without the bunt attempts? Perhaps. But whatever attempt he was using overall did not result in good offensive production. Hell, it looks like when he wasn't bunting he actually hit for a little power. I think he really might be better off batting lower in the lineup and swinging away. If he's going to have a bad OBP anyway, might as well try and hit for power?

Offensive production from a catcher feels nice... it's been a long time!

Not sure why some act surprised when the Brewers win or loss games they aren't expected to. In baseball, a huge underdog still has around a 1 in 3 chance of winning. Brewers were around 2:1 underdogs yesterday and today, according to Vegas. 33% chance of a sweep!

My point is that just because he's fast doesn't mean he can effectively bunt for base hits. You have to be able to actually bunt well to do that. For a guy who isn't a very good hitter, to lose even one strike on a foul bunt is going to crush his offensive numbers. Don't get me wrong, making the corners have to cheat in has it's benefit but unless Gomez can get bunts down for hits a fair amount of time, it's counterproductive. As for who is motivating him to bunt... it seems like he is attempting them A LOT more this year (although I have no evidence to back that up with). Couple that with Gomez's supposed new approach and it certainly seems to me like RR and company are trying to reinvent him.

You bat Gomez 2nd because he's an impatient hitter and where are you going to get more pitches to hit than batting in front of Braun and Fielder? I realize that is the traditional line of thinking (and it wouldn't surprise me if RR is thinking the same thing) but I don't believe the evidence backs that theory up. The evidence shows that a pitcher's approach to a batter is largely independent of who bats next. If Gomez is getting one extra fastball every 4 AB (wish I had the data in front of me but it was along those lines), why would that be worth giving him an extra 90 AB on the year (batting him 7th instead of 2nd)? I don't think it's even close. In 2010, when batting 2nd, Gomez hit .272/.303/.404. You abuse stats more than anyone else on these boards. Cherry pick after cherry pick. Let's look at his BOP splits from 2010: http://www.baseball-refer...ca01&year=2010&t=b#lineu Ignoring that all these samples are so small as to render them completely useless, Gomez actually hit better in the 7th spot last year. Based on that, I think it's obvious that he thrives there as a batter!

Any Brewer fan has to be thrilled about Braun's start but I wouldn't assume any change in approach based on only the results of 80 PA. I agree that by virtue of being a year older, we would hope Braun improves his plate discipline, however.

There is also just a lot of concern about the difficulty of accurately identifying the location of balls in play. One area of concern that I've read about is hit location on balls between 2nd and 3rd, when there isn't a base in view. Without a firm reference point, it's hard to know exactly where the ball is. Another concern is the somewhat subjective assessment of how hard a ball is hit. Perhaps you can comment on either? Again, you hope most of this stuff evens out over the course of a season but over a couple of weeks? No way. Until MLB tracks the exact hit location and speed of balls in play, as well as pre-pitch location of defenders, I believe that these metrics are going to need a large sample to give us anything solid. Large as in, a couple of full seasons.

Has Gomez ever shown a proficiency for bunting for base hits? I know that because he's fast it's assumed but I don't see it. Seems like RR has an idea of what he'd like Gomez to be so he tries to fit the square peg into a round hole. The job of a manager is to make the most of what you have; not pretend that you can mold what you into what you want.

I'm assuming it was a called double steal. Get used to it, as Running Ron is going to be doping a lot of that all season. Can't wait for the home run, as Billy would say!If that was a called steal, then Roenicke is a complete moron.He constantly sacrifices in the 1st inning, so why would a double steal surprise you?

I'm assuming it was a called double steal. Get used to it, as Running Ron is going to be doing a lot of that all season. Gatta be aggressive! Gatta make things happen! Can't wait for the home run, as Billy would say! I mean, no high powered offense has ever won games!

This is only because of randomness, there is no direct reason for these defensive stats to show this other than randomness. IT IS NOT BECAUSE YUNI HAS IMPROVED ON DEFENSE.To be fair, he's not saying the stats suggest Yuni has actually improved. He's only claiming that the stats show his defensive performance has been better than average. I am arguing that the HUGE uncertainty in the estimate suggests that it tells us nothing. T o make up numbers, if the estimate is +2 runs, one standard deviation might be 10 runs. So we could say that we are 68% sure that Yuni's defensive has been worth between +12 and -8 runs to the Brewers so far this year. We are 95% sure that Yuni's defense has been worth between +22 and -18 runs.

It's more objective but not necessarily better. And you are combining several defensive systems that use the same or similar data to come up with their metrics. I don't think that decreases the uncertainty at all. That's like saying that a batter's OPS, WAR and wOBP are all good after a week, so perhaps a week of data is good enough. This is all very simple. It's April 19th. Whatever has happened so far this season tells us very little, whether it be stats or scouting. Yuni has been in the league for awhile now, so there is plenty of data to look at to formulate an informed opinion with regard to his abilities.Right, there is no doubt that ability wise, he is likely going to finish below average. That is not what I, or anyone else making this argument, have been asserting. We are merely stating that based on the objective data compiled by four different statistical models (all who seek to be the best objective measures of defense). Based on that, we can say that Yuni had a few good weeks, nothing more, nothing less. The only reason I even make that point is to show that many have been over-critical in regard to his performance to this point in the season. My goal isn't to try to extrapolate what we can expect of him going forward, or to show his "real ability". If I want to figure those things out, I agree that it is best to look at the career statistics. I see this as the equivalent of saying, "Plush has really started off the season hitting better than I expected." I'm not suggesting that what we've seen from Plush reflects his actual ability, nor that what he's done in the opening weeks of the season can be expected to be continued throughout the season.I'm not talking about descriptive vs. predictive. I'm talking about knowing what happened (batter hit a HR in 1 PA) vs. making an educated guess at what happened (defender making an out on a play that is estimated to be converted into an out 50% of the time by an average defender). We know Plush has had a positive impact because he's hit so much better than an average player. Whether it represents his true abilities or not, the hits actually happened. In contrast, when Betencourt makes an out, we don't REALLY know if that out was as easy or hard as the advanced defensive metrics suggest. They are making a hopefully accurate estimate but with low precision. Over perhaps 70 defensive chances, I will continue to argue that these defensive metrics tell us next to nothing about reality. The rely on a large sample to have any real utility. I am basing my opinion on the writing of MGL, who is the creator of UZR and frequents the Insidethebook.com blog. They had a thread on the fundamental difference of batting stats and UZR type stats. One knows what happened, one is estimating it. Some searching should let you hear it from the horse's mouth.

You see crazy numbers all the time when you look at batter vs. pitcher match ups. It's why managers should know to just ignore them. Brewers at Phillies - Weeks 4, Gomez 8, Braun 7, Fielder 3, McGehee 5, Kotsay 9, Betancourt 6, Kottaras 2, Wolf 1 At least when the 2002 Brewers rolled out guys like Gomez, Kotsay, Betencourt and kattaras, you knew that the lineup was pretty close to the best it could be. It's so much more frustrating this year when: A. The glaring issues could be improved upon quite easily. B. A playoff run is reasonably possible this year.

Looks like a decent shot at a rain out: http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/USPA1276 Vegas is giving the Brewers about a 35% chance of winning and it's hard to imagine that being lower in a make-up game.

What don't we know that justifies batting Gomez 2nd? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

It's more objective but not necessarily better. And you are combining several defensive systems that use the same or similar data to come up with their metrics. I don't think that decreases the uncertainty at all. That's like saying that a batter's OPS, WAR and wOBP are all good after a week, so perhaps a week of data is good enough. This is all very simple. It's April 19th. Whatever has happened so far this season tells us very little, whether it be stats or scouting. Yuni has been in the league for awhile now, so there is plenty of data to look at to formulate an informed opinion with regard to his abilities.

Hey, wasn't that fun?!

How many FRIGGIN outs are the Brewers going to make at home plate this season? Running Ron apparently wants you to go no matter what? The RF would have had to throw that into the stands for McGehee to have had any chance.

Wow, talk about bad defense, that throw was just embarrassing.

Yeh, he's so easy to get out. If only you could consult for the opposing teams.

We've set up a table and played cards for hours after a game.

I think it's fair to give Prince and Betancourt some credit for that error. Perhaps 60-80% goes to Betancourt.

Tried to delete it because I didn't want to get into it. Stats say Betancourt has played well defensively over 11 games - to suggest that those stats are invalid because it's only 11 games...... well, don't agree with it. Fine if you want to say that it's a small sample size and his prior history suggest he won't keep it up, but to suggest that the stats are inaccurate because it's a small sample size is wrong imo. It's not necessarily wrong or right, it just has a huge level of uncertainty. I obviously don't know the exact numbers but it would be like saying saying Betancourt has been +2 runs defensively, 10 runs to 2 standard deviations.