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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Is the mini gameday option gone or am I just missing it?
  2. rluzinski
    Both are projected for a .249 BA: Weeks: .253 for career, age 28Gomez: .246 for career, age 25 PECOTA has Weeks at .253 and Gomez at .239. I wouldn't expect drastically different BAs from them. Neither are really high average kind of players.
  3. rluzinski
    I am thinking the same thing. I would be very happy with .500 but I don't think they project even that well for the first month.
  4. rluzinski
    Four of the 8 starting positional players are at or near replacement level. I reject the notion that I should have assumed that they would all be starting opening day, three weeks ago. I should have assumed that Betancourt and Gomez would be starting against a righty? That Kotsay would be the one picked?
  5. rluzinski
    The catcher situation was clear when Lucroy got hurt, so it is what it is. When all was said and done, I did not think Gomez and Bentancourt would be starting almost every day. I also thought Melvin would find a replacement for Hart that wouldn't project to have a sub .700 OPS! I didn't think Melvin would pull a star out of his posterior but I also didn't think he would be satisfied with Kotsay starting in right and Gomez apparently our everyday #2 hitter.
  6. rluzinski
    Apparently, this is what the Brewers will be rolling out for opening day (including ZiPS projections): http://i54.tinypic.com/eprkid.gif That's pretty ugly, actually. And considering they also have below average defense as well, I'm a little worried. Obviously Hart coming back will have a huge impact (as well as a hopefully developing Lucroy). I am worried that the Brewers could dig themselves into %@!*!% in April, though. And with as close as the NL Central will be, I don't know if they can afford to do that.
  7. rluzinski
    They are giving you the average expected IP, not the most likely. A typical workhorse might look something like this (actual numbers for illustration only): 200-220 IP: 40% chance 180-200 IP 25% 140-180 IP: 25% 100 - 140 IP: 20% Below 100: 5% While it's most likely that that player will end up with between 200-220 IP, the average brought down by the small chance of missing significant time.
  8. rluzinski
    You'd run a huge risk of benching Gomez after his fine spring. Don't forget Morgan put up a lousy .633 OPS last year (compared to Gomez' .655) and he lacks the power Gomez has. Despite his speed, Morgan gets thrown out a lot trying to steal. Gomez is the better base stealer. I'm not so sure Morgan is the better player. I'm not sure I want to judge guys on spring stats. We've been warning JohnBriggs about spring training stats for almost a decade. I'd rather a guy have a .900 OPS than a 600 OPS in spring training but what Gomez has done is nothing to get even remotely excited about, IMO. Despite another year of feel good stories about him using a new approach at the plate, he still isn't walking. He looks like a lost cause, offensively. That said, Morgan is only a small upgrade. PECOTA has his projected OBP 30 points higher higher but his SLG 10 points lower. A platoon in CF would be ideal but apparently, that's not going to happen.
  9. rluzinski
    From that article, you can tell that Roenicke has no idea how the more defensive stats are even calculated. Positioning is part of all defensive stats, for better or worse. It's part of "range".
  10. rluzinski
    The Brewers got quite the injury risk discount. When you look at this deal, it pretty much assumes that Weeks won't get close to averaging 600 AB/year. 28 years old, average defense. 2011 Marcel projection: .258/.350/.436 The guy could average 400 AB/year and be worth this deal.
  11. rluzinski
    Most in the media doesn't even understand the implications of a player being prearby. I heard someone report today that Texas would have Hamilton another two years because because of this contract. Umm, yeh.
  12. rluzinski
    I don't think it has ANYTHING to do with lapses in concentration. He's a flyball pitcher who had an 86.5 MPH fastball last year. That's down 2.5 MPH over the last few years: http://www.fangraphs.com/...635&position=P#pitchtype That isn't going to cut it for 99.9% of non-knuckleball pitchers.
  13. rluzinski
    Exactly! If he wants to get rid of revenue sharing, get rid of market protection. In 5 years, New York City would have at least 4 major league baseball teams.
  14. rluzinski

    SABR

    rluzinski replied to DocLuna7's topic in Off-Topic Forum

    I joined for one year about 5 years ago. I saw next to nothing with regard to actual sabermetric analysis in their publications. What I saw was mostly historical data research, if that makes sense. I know the SABR conventions feature orginal research but I didn't see that anywhere else. BTW, to sell 1,200 of anything is pretty damn cool!
  15. rluzinski
    What is actual luck?
  16. rluzinski
    Maybe playing multiple positions won't improve his defense at any one spot, but it isn't like he is going to backtrack because one day he plays 3rd and the next he plays RF. I hope they do this to get him starting two games a week. Get another lefty bat in there.I don't think the Brewers think that Gamel's defense is good enough to play 3B at the majors right now, so the issue isn't whether he'll get worse there, splitting time. He has to get better. Just speculation, though.
  17. rluzinski
    As bad as Gamel has been at 3B, I don't seem him splitting time between the infield and outfield. The Brewers will either see if he can stick at 3B or make the transition to the outfield. My guess is that they've already decided that he is an outfielder, though.
  18. rluzinski
    This just makes it more of a 4 team race than a 3 team race and may actually reduce the number of wins needed to capture the division. The Brewers, Reds and Cards are still all stronger in the middle of the lineup than the Cubs and still should rate an edge. The Cubs got better, so the odds of the Brewers winning the division just went down. We can argue by how much but it went down.
  19. rluzinski
    Renteria's 2011 ZiPS projection: .265/.318/.362/.670 I might expect something like .275/.300/.400 from Betancourt in the NL, which is about a wash. If I had to to pick the better hitter, it would probably be Betancourt by a hair. The huge difference is in defense, where Renteria appears to still be average, whereas it is almost universally agreed that Betencourt is a very bad at playing defense at SS. I would be surprised if Renteria has 150 starts in him for 2011 but had he been signed with the Brewers, he probably would have only ahd to start 100ish games. I won't pretend that Melvin could have gotten Renteria had he wanted to; how would I know? I think he represented a clear upgrade over Betancourt, however. Probably close to 1 win over 100 starts, which is a lot.
  20. rluzinski
    Brewer fans will over-react to a good or bad performance in a small sample.
  21. rluzinski
    I thought there was a lot of discussion about this when Roenicke was hired. Somewhere in here, I think: Roenicke Hired Thread I was and still am concerned that he is going to be too aggressive with steal attempts. While Macha might have been too conservative on the base paths, I suspect the pendulum will swing too far in the other direction. Only one way to find out, I guess.
  22. rluzinski
    It's $3 mil incentives, which I'm sure is based on playing time. I bet his base is less than $2 mil. And yes, I will assume that Renteria is a better option than Betencourt and that isn't saying much. I also think it's funny that Betancourt has already filled the Suppan role of least favorite Brewer before he even takes the field. He projects to be the worst starter on the team, so I don't see why it's surprising that he's already the least favorite.
  23. rluzinski
    Rule of thumb is, every 10 runs is worth around a win. +154 - 52 = 102 runs = 10.2 wins. Considering that the Brewers had a slightly less than optimal runs scored per game distribution (blow out wins), 12 more wins sounds reasonable.
  24. rluzinski
    3 mil with incentives? Damn.
  25. rluzinski
    If semi-extended means a year, then perhaps your personal observation would have some real value. If it means one or two months, you are better off just looking at his last 3 years of production and forming your opinion on that.
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