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I would say alittle bit of both. They have good players. That doesnt make them a good team. They can be good, but I think a lot of us expected a bit too much. It could all change with a good homestand though. Which I am hoping for. I definatly dont think they are as bad as 75-87, also, its hard to count those games last year, the team is definatly different this year from last year. I prefer to look at it as the team was 15-11, and is now 1-7. I think its silly to look at the last 162 games if your looking at this team. I DO however, think you could look at the last 162 if your evaluating Yost. But thats for a different discussion.
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If we want to objectively assess the team's talent based off of their record over the last season plus, why would we start by subjectively choosing to leave out the best part of it? There's nothing magicaly about 162 games.
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If you take out August of last year and May of this year we are like 89-63 are we underrating how good this team is?

 

If you just remove the best or worst streaks you are going to get goofy numbers.

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If you just remove the best or worst streaks you are going to get goofy numbers.
True, but this isn't removing any streaks. Its 162 straight games. Last years team compares best to the 1987 team streak. That team started out great, and were never heard from again. This team is in danger of doing the same.

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"88.6% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot" Todd Snider

 

-Posted by the fan formerly known as X ellence. David Stearns has brought me back..

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Its 162 straight games.

 

And including the 24-10 start is 196 straight games with the same players as in your sample. It's not like we are arguing that you should include the last 34 games of the 2006 season (which would be at least as silly as not including the first 34 games of the 2007 season). Are you trying to say that your sample should be expected to be more representative of the Brewer's true talent than mine? What would be the logic used to support that argument?

 

People use selective end points when they:

 

1. Wish to point out something because it's interesting and/or surprising

 

2. They have a conclusion and are trying to create evidence to support it.

 

I have no problem 1. but shake my head at 2.. It's just not objective.

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People use selective end points when they:

 

1. Wish to point out something because it's interesting and/or surprising

 

2. They have a conclusion and are trying to create evidence to support it.

 

I have no problem 1. but shake my head at 2.. It's just not objective.

 

I actually believe it is more of number 1 with him because he didn't cherry pick. Picking the last 162 games isn't really trying to create evidence. I mean, it's not even an arbitrary number... it's the number of games in a season. If he was cherry picking months than I could see nunmber 2. I think he just found it interesting that if the last 162 games was the full season, the Brew would be that bad.

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162 games is only non-arbitrary when they start at the beginning of a season and end at the end of a season. That's how post season is determined. Overlapping seasons, 162 games is arbitrary.
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Last year's Brewers weren't as good as their 24-10 start, and this year's Brewers aren't as bad as their 16-18 start.

 

I don't like the idea of using the "they're xx-yy since they started 24-10 last year" stat, though. There's enough differences between last year's roster and this year's roster that it's not really fair to lump the two teams together like that.

"[baseball]'s a stupid game sometimes." -- Ryan Braun

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I think we all know the Brewers are not as good as the 24-10 which would equal 114-48.

But I do think they are as bad or worse than the 16-18 which would be equal to 76-86. What we have in the Brewers is an overhyped bunch of players, manager and coaches. There are just too many holes that many "Brewer Fans" just don't want to see or believe.

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Picking the last 162 games isn't really trying to create evidence. I mean, it's not even an arbitrary number... it's the number of games in a season.

 

It's not like everyone just woke up today and said, "I wonder how the Brewers have done over a season's worth of games, but actually over two different seasons? Wow! That completely takes out the hot start!"

 

That's not arbitrary, it's using a selective starting point to coherse the evidence towards a predetermined conclusion. For a sample (outcome of games) to fairly represent a population (true skill of the Brewers), it has to be randomly taken.

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If a 90 win team goes 10-1 in the middle of the season you can pull those stats out and say they are just a .500 team who got hot. Does that really mean anything?

 

The Brewers had an 11-3 stretch last year in late April/Early May. If you want to pull those stats out then yeah we look a lot worse. However if you want to cut out the terrible stretch we had in late July/early August we look like a 90 win team. You really do just have to look at a season as a whole to know anything about it and even then it is mostly guess work.

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This is a slump. Pure and simple. Despite having watched every one of the debacles over the last week, I firmly believe this team is too talented to finish under .500. One ropey month won't convince me otherwise.

 

Surely there's been enough baseball watched over the years to not realize that a season has peaks and troughs. This is a trough, no doubt, but I wasn't thinking we were WS winners when we were 24-10 any more than I think the year is done at 16-18.

 

What's that saying? "A pessimist is never disappointed"

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