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Interesting Cubs poll on ESPN.com


mikerollins

There is a poll up on ESPN.com right now that asks the following: How will the Chicago Cubs finish the season?

 

Miss Playoffs

NL Wild Card

NL Central Champs

NL Champs

World Series Champs

 

The poll isn't that interesting...nor are the results as a whole:

Miss Playoffs: 46%

NL Central Champs: 19%

NL Wild Card: 19%

World Series Champs: 12%

NL Champs: 4%

 

Where it gets interesting is when you break it down by region.

 

In Illinois a disgusting 31% said they would win the world series, which was the leading vote getter, while only 26% said they'd miss the playoffs.

 

In the big-market states, CA and NY..52% (CA) and 46%(NY) said they'd miss the playoffs.

 

However in the rest of the NL Central states:

Wisconsin--Miss playoffs 61%

Ohio--54%

Texas-46%

Pennsylvania-60%

Missouri-57%

 

They pretty much agree they won't make the playoffs (Texas is a little big scewed with the Rangers market and neutral areas (san antonio, etc).

 

So basically the fans that have seen the Brewers and Cubs the most (Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Cardinals)...say the Brewers will win the division.

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So basically the fans that have seen the Brewers and Cubs the most (Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Cardinals)...say the Brewers will win the division.

 

That's one way to interpret it, I guess, but I think that fans of those teams are the ones who also harbor the greatest bias against the Cubs since they are in the same division. I would guess that the people in IL who said they wouldn't make it were die-hard White Sox fans that hate the Cubs.

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Joe Sheehan posted his NL second half report and said the Cubs will take the division. Take that with a grain of salt as he doesn't like the Brewers and has basically ragged on them all season.

 

www.baseballprospectus.co...cleid=6456

 

Quote:
The Brewers? run prevention at the start of the year was flukish, the product of unusually low home run and hit rates, and as those figures have returned to normal, so has their runs allowed

 

I find that particularily funny since the Cubs pitchers all pitched way outside their expected ERA in the first two months and the Brewer pitchers are largely getting hit by flukey BABIP's and LOB% though Capuano has been legitimately bad lately.

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Add to that the fact that they're probably still holding out hope that their own team will win the division. I'm sure St. Louis doesn't think they're quite out of it yet to the point where they will concede the division.

If I had Braun's pee in my fridge I'd tell everybody.

~Nottso

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Looking at the poll results right now (7/16, 12:15am), the only state that feels more strongly about the Cubs missing the playoffs than Wisconsin (60%) is Delaware (61%). Only a measly 298 votes has been cast by the state so far though.

 

In related news, 18 people (9% of 198 votes) in Wyoming think that the Cubs will win the World Series.

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The Brewers? run prevention at the start of the year was flukish, the product of unusually low home run and hit rates, and as those figures have returned to normal, so has their runs allowed

 

That kind of macro-analysis is fine for getting a quick feel of a team's performance so far but it's a pretty shaky foundation for making playoff predictions. You really need to look at the individual players and compare their 2007 performance to their projected level of performance. For instance, it's a pretty safe bet that Capuano eventually gets his act together and regains the command he's displayed the last couple of years. We wouldn't expect him to have an ERA over 5.0 in October.

 

According to BP's "Adjusted Standings Report: PECOTA Version", the Brewers are still 2:1 favorites over the to win the Central:

 

LINK

 

That takes into account preseason projections.

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