The Investment Thread

[Jimbo]

13 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

For the folks close to retirement, that could be really scary to have a good third of your portfolio evaporate overnight…

I’m a ways off from that, so not worried about a correction, but that really could hammer a lot of people.

I'm getting close to retirement and I say just get it over with.  I'm mentally prepared for it.

 

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

25 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

I'm getting close to retirement and I say just get it over with.  I'm mentally prepared for it.

 

Fair enough.  I have a couple colleagues that are close, still in relatively stable 70/30 stocks/bond mix, but between some cash savings, social security income, and plans to do some part time consulting,  both are in a position to hold Off 3-5 years on making any IRA withdrawals if the market tanks.

our financial advisor routinely tells us, that if we’re willing to cut back on spending (if needed), and have the ability to earn some part time income, we can weather just about anything in retirement.  The key of course is the “sequence of withdrawals” or whatever it’s called, that we should be rock solid so long as we can avoid taking a big distribution from our stocks portfolio in a market downturn.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Interesting that the markets seem to be ignoring the escalation in the Middle East again.

Then again, so much hyperbole has been thrown out over the past 4-5 months, it might be tough to determine what is reality of not these days.

i will be curious to see what the inflation number is today. Guessing that the market is expecting mid 4s?

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Interesting that the markets seem to be ignoring the escalation in the Middle East again.

Then again, so much hyperbole has been thrown out over the past 4-5 months, it might be tough to determine what is reality of not these days.

i will be curious to see what the inflation number is today. Guessing that the market is expecting mid 4s?

If they did they were way off...3.5% in June.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

38 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

If they did they were way off...3.5% in June.

3.5% is a big improvement, thought that seems to be driven (lower) primarily by gas prices.

hopefully the Middle East stuff can work itself out.  If gas prices return to a more normalized $2.50-$2.75 by fall, that would be a big boost to the economy and hopefully get inflation back below 3%

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

3.5% is a big improvement, thought that seems to be driven (lower) primarily by gas prices.

hopefully the Middle East stuff can work itself out.  If gas prices return to a more normalized $2.50-$2.75 by fall, that would be a big boost to the economy and hopefully get inflation back below 3%

Is that gas price hope based on your region, or the US on average?  If it's US on average it won't get that low because of how much blue states tax it, and the west coast currently has a self-inflicted supply mess on its hands regardless of what is going on in Hormuz.  Last time it was $2.50-$2.75 a gallon nationally for more than a hot second, we were in year 2 of the two weeks to stop the spread routine that cratered demand 5-6 years ago.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Is that gas price hope based on your region, or the US on average?  If it's US on average it won't get that low because of how much blue states tax it, and the west coast currently has a self-inflicted supply mess on its hands regardless of what is going on in Hormuz.  Last time it was $2.50-$2.75 a gallon nationally for more than a hot second, we were in year 2 of the two weeks to stop the spread routine that cratered demand 5-6 years ago.

You make an excellent point.  I meant $2.50-$2.75 in Southeastern Wisconsin.  We were about that in mid February here.