The Investment Thread

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

14 hours ago, wallus said:

Woof

Did I miss something?

 

[owbc]

2 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Did I miss something?

 

Which piece of bad news would you like?

I assume the jobs report… 

[wallus]

3 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Did I miss something?

 

Yes

[wallus]

I'm probably going to continue to DCA but is anyone getting vibes that this will be a large downturn soon?

[homer]

9 hours ago, wallus said:

I'm probably going to continue to DCA but is anyone getting vibes that this will be a large downturn soon?

Impossible to say. I'm going to keep on with DCA. Everyone's timeline is different. I don't need the bulk of my investments for at least another decade so a downturn now is fine by me.

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 3/6/2026 at 11:12 PM, wallus said:

I'm probably going to continue to DCA but is anyone getting vibes that this will be a large downturn soon?

Almost exactly 1 year ago we were supposed to go into a market depression due to tariffs being announced, and the market proceeded to go crazy hot once some clarity showed up.  I think its a losing idea to play the shorter term buy/hold/sell game in markets that can go on both positive and negative runs based on what a now leaderless failed terrorist regime opts or even threatens to do on a day to day basis.  In fact, March/April in general has been doldrums for the markets in more years than not.  DCA through these downturns for people not in retirment still makes too much sense.

Totally different reasons why, but I think history will repeat itself this year in the markets in terms of a significant rebound.  I also think the potential longterm upside of an Iran that may not be a strategic ally, but at least a grudging partner with the rest of the middle east economically while not being a state sponsor of terrorism in the region is worth the temporary pain this uncertainty rattling global economic outlooks is causing (particularly in Asia, which leans heavily on oil exports through Hormuz).  

[homer]

2 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Almost exactly 1 year ago we were supposed to go into a market depression due to tariffs being announced, and the market proceeded to go crazy hot once some clarity showed up.  I think its a losing idea to play the shorter term buy/hold/sell game in markets that can go on both positive and negative runs based on what a now leaderless failed terrorist regime opts or even threatens to do on a day to day basis.  In fact, March/April in general has been doldrums for the markets in more years than not.  DCA through these downturns for people not in retirment still makes too much sense.

It's not the Iranian leader's whims moving the markets on a day to day basis. 

[nate82]

There isn’t one person who can move the market based on what they do or say even if that person is the President of the US.

The markets will move however they want to.  

[homer]

11 minutes ago, nate82 said:

There isn’t one person who can move the market based on what they do or say even if that person is the President of the US.

The markets will move however they want to.  

I mean...

His quote was posted publicly at 3:16pm ET

[nate82]

3 minutes ago, homer said:

I mean...

His quote was posted publicly at 3:16pm ET

The market goes up and down all day.  One person has very little impact on the market.

[homer]

1 minute ago, nate82 said:

The market goes up and down all day.  One person has very little impact on the market.

The market responded immediately and significantly to his comments. It's news. The market responds to news all the time.

[owbc]

There's a crazy amount of speculation going on with oil prices. Tomorrow Iran could say "actually the war will continue as long as we want it to continue for" and it will go back up. 

The broader market seems to be in the "short lived disruption" camp. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

19 hours ago, homer said:

It's not the Iranian leader's whims moving the markets on a day to day basis. 

Of course not, especially since its currently difficult to keep track of who their actual leader is on any given day - but threats from Iran that prey on economic angst are then reacted on by leaders here and in other countries that can dramatically sway markets with a statement, fundamentals are sideshow with these swings.

 

Oil prices are swinging like crazy based on what might happen to supply in the short term, but longterm there is going to be alot more supply certainty with both Venezuela and Iran supplies and more importantly safer shipping routes.  Gas prices skyrocketing here feels more like gouging right now.  Ironic that now would probably make sense to  tap the SPR for a month or two, had it actually been full and not still severely depleted when gas prices here were much higher due to a mix of prolonged Covid inflationary pressures and domestic energy policy, and it was unnecessarily emptied to levels not seen since the early 1980s leading up to the 2022 midterms - all the while seeing Russia continue selling oil and gas all over Europe and Asian markets while they were attacking ukraine.

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Oil prices are swinging like crazy based on what might happen to supply in the short term, but longterm there is going to be alot more supply certainty with both Venezuela and Iran supplies and more importantly safer shipping routes. 

Apologies if this is too political, but looking back what happened with Venezuela now seems like a prelude to what is happening in Iran.

I don't think Iran happens if they don't secure supply from Venezuela first.

[owbc]

On 3/10/2026 at 10:11 AM, Fear The Chorizo said:

Of course not, especially since its currently difficult to keep track of who their actual leader is on any given day - but threats from Iran that prey on economic angst are then reacted on by leaders here and in other countries that can dramatically sway markets with a statement, fundamentals are sideshow with these swings.

 

Oil prices are swinging like crazy based on what might happen to supply in the short term, but longterm there is going to be alot more supply certainty with both Venezuela and Iran supplies and more importantly safer shipping routes.  Gas prices skyrocketing here feels more like gouging right now.  Ironic that now would probably make sense to  tap the SPR for a month or two, had it actually been full and not still severely depleted when gas prices here were much higher due to a mix of prolonged Covid inflationary pressures and domestic energy policy, and it was unnecessarily emptied to levels not seen since the early 1980s leading up to the 2022 midterms - all the while seeing Russia continue selling oil and gas all over Europe and Asian markets while they were attacking ukraine.

Roughly $90/barrel is now the floor for the foreseeable future. That will make its way into inflation, which was already 2.4% before any of this started. Rate cuts are not gonna happen. 

Iran’s supply? We’re currently blowing up all of their infrastructure. 

Boats are still not getting through the Strait of Hormuz and there is no timeline for them to do so. Supply chains are obviously going to work around it and we’ll surely tap the SPR any day now, there’s no way that “fundamentals are a sideshow” other than the crazy spike the other day which quickly corrected itself. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

3 hours ago, owbc said:

Roughly $90/barrel is now the floor for the foreseeable future. That will make its way into inflation, which was already 2.4% before any of this started. Rate cuts are not gonna happen. 

Iran’s supply? We’re currently blowing up all of their infrastructure. 

Boats are still not getting through the Strait of Hormuz and there is no timeline for them to do so. Supply chains are obviously going to work around it and we’ll surely tap the SPR any day now, there’s no way that “fundamentals are a sideshow” other than the crazy spike the other day which quickly corrected itself. 

I doubt the SPR gets tapped because it's not anywhere close to full, and the only countries who cared about Iran's supply of oil are China and Russia.  US refineries are still getting all the supply they need from domestic and nearby suppliers.  Under normal circumstances they only import about half a million barrels per day from the middle east.  If anything, the rate of the SPR getting refilled from its 2022-2023 low will slow or stop to help offset that loss in the short term.

The key is to get the Strait opened up for the rest of tanker traffic destined for Asia, then the added stability of oil coming from Venezuela will push its price back well below $90 a barrel.  Iran's navy has essentially been reduced to kayaks in recent days - clearing mines and protecting from pirate-style attacks on tankers not equipped to defend themselves will take time, but its not like Iran has gunships capable of sinking the tankers patrolling or blocking the Strait right now.

 

Back to the original question on this, DCA should remain the approach on investment.  Lots of uncertainty right now for sure, but its not a good time to stash money on the sidelines until after the markets start factoring in what the largest pain in the middle east region for 50 years no longer being a pain means for longterm energy prices.  Better to take a bit of a hit in the short term, invest more along the way, and catch the whole bull rush back up the ladder than try to time it perfectly.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Welp, my last comment aged well, at least my thinking they wouldnt tap the SPR anytime soon....really not a fan of doing so and hope the plan is to replace faster than they draw it down another 172 million barrels.

 

 

[homer]

9 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Welp, my last comment aged well, at least my thinking they wouldnt tap the SPR anytime soon....really not a fan of doing so and hope the plan is to replace faster than they draw it down another 172 million barrels.

Yeah I am not sure why they are doing it now. Retail price of gas is obviously higher, but it's not so bad. With inflation factored in, it's probably the same as it was for much of the 2010s

[owbc]

They are going to get smoked in the midterms if gas is still high in the fall! Refilling it is the next guy‘s problem!