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Playoff chances


Just curious to see what everyone thinks of our chances to make the playoffs after losing 3 out of 4 in Pittsburg.

 

I am giving us an 85% chance to win the divisoin and a 90% chance to atleast make the wild card. I still think the wild card can come out of the Central if the Cubs get super hot....the West is going to beat each other up over the second half of the season. However, I don't think the Cubs will ever get more than 5 or 6 games over .500.

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BP is a good place to start when you want to estimate playoff chances:

 

LINK

 

76% chance of winning the division

8% winning the wildcard

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84% chance to make the playoffs

 

That hasn't been updated for today's results and with the Brewers losing and Cubs winning, we'll see a slight dip in the above probabilities. Maybe 80% or so.

 

I've been saying this the whole year but the Cubs are a good team and won't just hand the Central to the Brewers this year. Hard to be upset with the Crew's current position though.

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Which also means we have the best chance in the NL to get to the playoffs. Thanks for the link Russ, I was starting to get pretty depressed.

The poster previously known as Robin19, now @RFCoder

EA Sports...It's in the game...until we arbitrarily decide to shut off the server.

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There are three different formulae though, right?

 

What doesn't sit right by me is that the Cubs expected wins and losses are tempered by their overall record. Now they might not be as good as they have been since June 1, but they certainly aren't as bad as they were in April-May.

 

So, if before the season they were projected to win 97 games (just making that up, I don't really know) then why use the record to project their win rate instead of those "talent" projections? If they win at a 97 win rate the rest of the year, that gives them a little over 90 wins. I sometimes wonder (especially after Hall's injury) if we'll win 90. Losing 3 of 4 to the Bucs makes it hard to think that we'll sustain a competitive pace.

 

I want to believe that we have an 80% chance of being in the playoffs. I want to believe even more that we'll win the division. More than that, I want to believe that we make the playoffs and the Cubs don't (although it would be great to beat them for the NLCS.)

 

I'm just wondering, if the Cubs have fewer wins than their expected win totals, then shouldn't we expect them to actually play at a frantic pace the rest of the year and possibly take 90+ games and possibly the division?

 

I'm asking.

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BP looks at the the team's raw stats to generate their expected runs scored and runs given up. From that, they estimate the number of wins they "should" have gotten as a result. So, the fact that Cubs have been horrible in 1 run games is not held against them. Finally, their expected win rate is regressed towards their regression expectations. They were projected by BP to win 84 games (Brewers were projected to win 85). If the Cubs have played like a 90 win team this year but were expected to win 84 games before the season, BP might regress their expected win rate to 86 games, for instance.

 

The results of the Brewers' series against the Pirates tells us nothing about future expectations. The lowly Brewers earlier this decade won enough series against good teams to make that clear. 4 baseball games is equal to about a quarter of an NFL game. Would you be confident making generalizations about the talent of an NFL team based on a quarter?

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If the Brewers don't play .500 or so on the road, our playoff chances are not too good!!!

 

Actually, all that matters is the overall record!!! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Teams break those must-do-to make-the-playoff rules all the time. The Brewers current home/road split simply doesn't suggest anything with regard to the Brewers' playoff chances.

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