Wed. 9/7 - Noontime Matinee in Appleton

[Joseph Zarr]

Can we please celebrate yesterday's victory gave the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers their first winning season since 2016? They now have a chance to place second in each half. This has just been a fantastic season and it's a testament to them they are continuing to play it out with no playoffs on the line. I, for one, have been extremely impressed by their bounceback and resilience.

[Joseph Zarr]

These same T-Rats have a real possibility of having two closers enter the record books for most saves in a single season. The 2012 team will maintain the 47 total team saves record but this is the first team since 1996 that has two double digit save earners. It's just been an incredible luxury to see Cam Robinson and James Meeker close things down.

[Joseph Zarr]

He's been doing it all year in Biloxi. I've been hyping him up for months. A two-run laser shot to left field to take the lead in his debut? I'll take it:

 

[Joseph Zarr]

RHP Zach Vennarro continues his 2022 downturn by giving up a sweet six spot in the top of the 8th inning. My goodness. It is now 11-2 Braves. I'm seriously just ready for the Shuckers season to end ?. A man can only take so many of these innings as a fan. I'm here til the end, yes absolutely. But, it certainly isn't easy. I hope the players get the rest and refresh they'll need to come back better, stronger, and more consistent in 2023. There's still four games in this series. There's still pride at stake.

[Joseph Zarr]

Now it's RHP Kent Hasler's turn. He gives up a two-run bomb to open the ninth frame. It's 13-2 Braves. I'm waving my white towel for the pen. They need an off-season. 

[Robocaller]

Valerio had a nice game. It would be good if he finishes the year well, because he had been wretched lately.

[Joseph Zarr]

10 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Valerio had a nice game. It would be good if he finishes the year well, because he had been wretched lately.

I would counter this with: it's only natural his contact started to fall for base hits. He had actually been making solid contact with decent velocity for weeks. I touched on it in a recent report - one game in particular, the precise game evades me, he hit three absolute line drive ropes...directly in the area of a waiting fielder. He scuffled in the aftermath of his lower body injury in a slide to second base months ago now - he definitely hasn't been the same player since. BUT, he certainly hasn't been 'wretched'. I think his season is much less an issue than the stats make it out to be. The main 'issue' with Valerio as he grows as a player and a man is: will his bat, ultimately, be good enough to merit the strict second baseman spot in a lineup? That jury is obviously still out as he's 21 years old until late December. They've tried to move him around some (left field here and there earlier in the season) but he's pretty much a second baseman or a DH. He'll need to continue to develop that power stroke and fine tune his offensive game - there's no doubt when he's on, he's really on and can hit with the best of the Minor League players. We just haven't seen that for a prolonged stretch as of yet in a higher level. Just bits and pieces.

[Robocaller]

3 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I would counter this with: it's only natural his contact started to fall for base hits. He had actually been making solid contact with decent velocity for weeks. I touched on it in a recent report - one game in particular, the precise game evades me, he hit three absolute line drive ropes...directly in the area of a waiting fielder. He scuffled in the aftermath of his lower body injury in a slide to second base months ago now - he definitely hasn't been the same player since. BUT, he certainly hasn't been 'wretched'. I think his season is much less an issue than the stats make it out to be. The main 'issue' with Valerio as he grows as a player and a man is: will his bat, ultimately, be good enough to merit the strict second baseman spot in a lineup? That jury is obviously still out as he's 21 years old until late December. They've tried to move him around some (left field here and there earlier in the season) but he's pretty much a second baseman or a DH. He'll need to continue to develop that power stroke and fine tune his offensive game - there's no doubt when he's on, he's really on and can hit with the best of the Minor League players. We just haven't seen that for a prolonged stretch as of yet in a higher level. Just bits and pieces.

batting .152 in July and .179 in August is wretched. His prospect status has dimmed. I hope it's rekindled.

 

[Joseph Zarr]

2 hours ago, Robocaller said:

batting .152 in July and .179 in August is wretched. His prospect status has dimmed. I hope it's rekindled.

 

You can number grab all you want. I watch the games. I’m simply saying: he’s made far better contact than the numbers would suggest. His status has absolutely dimmed, however. On that you are right.

[LouisEly]

Seems like Small's stints in the majors have cost him his confidence.  Need to get him in the lab this fall/winter and get that confidence back.

[Robocaller]

6 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

You can number grab all you want. I watch the games. I’m simply saying: he’s made far better contact than the numbers would suggest. His status has absolutely dimmed, however. On that you are right.

It was averages for the two preceding months, not batting average during a full moon.
You must really be a half-glass-filled kind of guy. Even if the glass is only filled with the dregs.

 

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

It was averages for the two preceding months, not batting average during a full moon.
You must really be a half-glass-filled kind of guy. Even if the glass is only filled with the dregs.

 

The question of how much bad luck is baked into Valerio's stat line is a legitimate one. He has the third worst BABIP among Brewers full season minor leaguers behind just Holt and Pinero. Even during his slump his strikeout rate didn't move much. If it was mostly bad luck, he should be in for a bounce back season next year.

While it definitely feels like the .241 BABIP is unsustainably low for a guy like Valerio who does have some pop, I am a bit concerned in the spike in his fly ball rates since he hit high-A last season. That also coincides with him going from a .300 hitter to a .230 hitter. If that is responsible, he needs to do something to fix it during the offseason. Having a great hit tool doesn't mean much of you're still going to top out at .250 because the type of contact you make isn't likely to result in an abundance of hits. 

[Robocaller]

43 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

The question of how much bad luck is baked into Valerio's stat line is a legitimate one. He has the third worst BABIP among Brewers full season minor leaguers behind just Holt and Pinero. Even during his slump his strikeout rate didn't move much. If it was mostly bad luck, he should be in for a bounce back season next year.

While it definitely feels like the .241 BABIP is unsustainably low for a guy like Valerio who does have some pop, I am a bit concerned in the spike in his fly ball rates since he hit high-A last season. That also coincides with him going from a .300 hitter to a .230 hitter. If that is responsible, he needs to do something to fix it during the offseason. Having a great hit tool doesn't mean much of you're still going to top out at .250 because the type of contact you make isn't likely to result in an abundance of hits. 

I always thought "hit tool" meant hit for average. Power is a separate tool. 
I'm looking for him to bounce back next year with a repeat at Biloxi, too, but I can't abide the notion that his performance for the previous two months is more than "wretched." It's not like he was hitting .200, he was hitting .152 and .179 (iirc).

[CheeseheadInQC]

6 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I always thought "hit tool" meant hit for average. Power is a separate tool. 
I'm looking for him to bounce back next year with a repeat at Biloxi, too, but I can't abide the notion that his performance for the previous two months is more than "wretched." It's not like he was hitting .200, he was hitting .152 and .179 (iirc).

To some degree I have always associated hit tool with avoiding strikeouts, and Valerio has traditionally had a low K rate, even during his slump, especially given his age and level.

[Joseph Zarr]

10 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

The question of how much bad luck is baked into Valerio's stat line is a legitimate one. He has the third worst BABIP among Brewers full season minor leaguers behind just Holt and Pinero. Even during his slump his strikeout rate didn't move much. If it was mostly bad luck, he should be in for a bounce back season next year.

While it definitely feels like the .241 BABIP is unsustainably low for a guy like Valerio who does have some pop, I am a bit concerned in the spike in his fly ball rates since he hit high-A last season. That also coincides with him going from a .300 hitter to a .230 hitter. If that is responsible, he needs to do something to fix it during the offseason. Having a great hit tool doesn't mean much of you're still going to top out at .250 because the type of contact you make isn't likely to result in an abundance of hits. 

Of the three listed, by my eye test, Valerio hits the ball the hardest by a fairly large margin. Pinero has had his moments, and is an incredibly talented fielder, but the consistency is all over the map in the batters box. 
 

Now, if we’re going to talk about extremely concerning seasons, however, I definitely reside in the “What in the heck happened to Gabe Holt?” I can honestly say I struggle to remember the last time he put a meaningful barrel on a ball. He’s had an extremely rough 2022.

[Jim Goulart]

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