Brewcrew82’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint (3.0)

[Brewcrew82]

The "trade Corbin Burnes and still be competitive" edition:

Kolten Wong, option declined

Brent Suter, non-tendered

Trevor Gott, non-tendered

Victor Caratini, non-tendered

Robert Suarez, signed for 2 years at 9M AAV, 3rd year team option

Jose Abreu, signed for 3 years at 18.5M AAV

Corbin Burnes, traded to BAL for Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westberg, and Seth Johnson

Tyrone Taylor, traded to OAK for A.J. Puk

Danny Jansen, acquired from TOR for Garrett Mitchell and Carlos Rodriguez (P) 

Brandon Woodruff, extended for 5 years at $118M, 6th year vesting option

Vs. RHP                                     Vs. LHP

Frelick                                      Frelick

Jansen                                     Jansen

Yelich                                       Abreu

Abreu                                       Renfroe

Tellez                                       Adames

Adames                                   Yelich

Renfroe                                    Urias

Westburg                                Westburg

Turang                                     Brosseau

 

• C: Danny Jansen ($3.70M)
• 1B: Jose Abreu ($18.50M)
• 2B: Luis Urias ($4.30M)
• 3B: Jordan Westburg ($0.70M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• CF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M)
• RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M)
• DH: Rowdy Tellez ($5.30M)
• Bench OF: Esteury Ruiz ($0.70M)
• Utility: Brice Turang ($0.70M)
• Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M)
• Backup C: Mario Feliciano ($0.70M)
• SP1: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M)
• SP2: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
• SP3: Eric Lauer ($5.20M)
• SP4: Grayson Rodriguez ($0.70M)
• SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.50M)
• CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M)
• RP: Robert Suarez ($9.00M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: AJ Puk ($0.70M)
• RP: Jake Cousins ($0.70M)
• RP: Peter Strzlecki ($0.70M)
• RP: Holby Milner ($1.10M)
• RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M)

Payroll is 3.69% under budget

[wiguy94]

How is Woodruff getting $10M more than Castillo despite having an extra Arb year compared to Castillo? That’s too much money. 

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

How is Woodruff getting $10M more than Castillo despite having an extra Arb year compared to Castillo? That’s too much money. 

I'm assuming an in-season agreement, as with Castillo. Woodruff is also better than Castillo. 

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'm assuming an in-season agreement, as with Castillo. Woodruff is also better than Castillo. 

Woodruff being a year older counters him being marginally better than Castillo. 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

Woodruff being a year older counters him being marginally better than Castillo. 

And Castillo signed a team-friendly deal. It isn't unreasonable to expect that Woodruff may want something a little closer to market rate. 

[wiguy94]

28 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The "trade Corbin Burnes and still be competitive" edition:

Kolten Wong, option declined

Brent Suter, non-tendered

Trevor Gott, non-tendered

Victor Caratini, non-tendered

Robert Suarez, signed for 2 years at 9M AAV, 3rd year team option

Jose Abreu, signed for 3 years at 18.5M AAV

Corbin Burnes, traded to BAL for Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westberg, and Seth Johnson

Tyrone Taylor, traded to OAK for A.J. Puk

Danny Jansen, acquired from TOR for Garrett Mitchell and Carlos Rodriguez (P) 

Brandon Woodruff, extended for 5 years at $118M, 6th year vesting option

Vs. RHP                                     Vs. LHP

Frelick                                      Frelick

Jansen                                     Jansen

Yelich                                       Abreu

Abreu                                       Renfroe

Tellez                                       Adames

Adames                                   Yelich

Renfroe                                    Urias

Westburg                                Westburg

Turang                                     Brosseau

 

• C: Danny Jansen ($3.70M)
• 1B: Jose Abreu ($18.50M)
• 2B: Luis Urias ($4.30M)
• 3B: Jordan Westburg ($0.70M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• CF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M)
• RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M)
• DH: Rowdy Tellez ($5.30M)
• Bench OF: Esteury Ruiz ($0.70M)
• Utility: Brice Turang ($0.70M)
• Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M)
• Backup C: Mario Feliciano ($0.70M)
• SP1: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M)
• SP2: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
• SP3: Eric Lauer ($5.20M)
• SP4: Grayson Rodriguez ($0.70M)
• SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.50M)
• CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M)
• RP: Robert Suarez ($9.00M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: AJ Puk ($0.70M)
• RP: Jake Cousins ($0.70M)
• RP: Peter Strzlecki ($0.70M)
• RP: Holby Milner ($1.10M)
• RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M)

Payroll is 3.69% under budget

I don’t see Baltimore doing this trade. They have plenty of salary space to sign one of the SP option in FA. They traded Mancini and Lopez this year despite being in the playoff race which to me means their FO is taking a longterm stance which means I don’t see them trading the best or second best (Eury Perez) SP prospect in baseball for 2 years of Corbin Burnes. That’s a very short term move for a team whose window is just opening. 

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I don’t see Baltimore doing this trade. They have plenty of salary space to sign one of the SP option in FA. They traded Mancini and Lopez this year despite being in the playoff race which to me means their FO is taking a longterm stance which means I don’t see them trading the best or second best (Eury Perez) SP prospect in baseball for 2 years of Corbin Burnes. That’s a very short term move for a team whose window is just opening. 

If they want Burnes, a top 3 pitcher in the game, that's who they're going to have to give up as I want nothing to do with DL Hall. They're not going after DeGrom, Verlander, or Rodon. They may or may not do it in the end, but it's an even deal value-wise.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If they want Burnes, a top 3 pitcher in the game, that's who they're going to have to give up as I want nothing to do with DL Hall. They're not going after DeGrom, Verlander, or Rodon. 

Why are they not going after guys like that? They had top 10 payrolls when they were last competitive. It makes way more sense for them to go after those guys than it does for them to trade Grayson Rodriguez and more prospects for 2 years of Corbin Burnes when they are at the beginning of their competitive window. 

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Why are they not going after guys like that? They had top 10 payrolls when they were last competitive. It makes way more sense for them to go after those guys than it does for them to trade Grayson Rodriguez and more prospects for 2 years of Corbin Burnes when they are at the beginning of their competitive window. 

DeGrom is going to either New York, Atlanta, or LA. Verlander likely returns to Houston or goes out West. Rodon will also probably go to a large market such as the Cubs or Yankees. I just don't see them as a likely landing spot for any of those pitchers. But they have been rumored as a landing spot for Burnes. By trading for Burnes, they get a for-sure top 3 starter in the game to compete in a tough AL East. 

It's just one hypothetical scenario that works out trade value wise. 

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If they want Burnes, a top 3 pitcher in the game, that's who they're going to have to give up as I want nothing to do with DL Hall. They're not going after DeGrom, Verlander, or Rodon. They may or may not do it in the end, but it's an even deal value-wise.

No, I think he's right. The GM specifically stated after this trade deadline, they were going to devote significant resources into competing...that they think their window is opening. 

I do think there's a very good chance they go after the top arms on the market(I don't think they sign deGrom or Verlander, but Rodon is certainly in play for them). 

Their only real salary commitments this year are Chris Davis. Money he's owed from his buyout and his deferred compensation.

And...so is Bobby Bonilla. In one of the other deferred deals that doesn't get talked about, Bobby Bo gets 500K a year from the O's. Nothing like Bruce Sutter getting ~50M from the Braves for the 9.1M dollar contract he signed(just getting paid off in the last year or so with a final balloon payment of...9.1M after getting 1.2M since 1990). 

But that's all beside the point. The POINT is that Baltimore is clearly at the point where they've accumulated the talent, they were quasi competitive this year, and they've still got a loaded farm system. 

 

They're going to be going all in. I DON'T think they'll actually give up Grayson Rodriguez+Westburg+Johnson...but that's GOT to be the Brewers starting point. Maybe the Brewers need to throw someone into that deal. Maybe it's an OF prospect(they need a RFer, so if you had to throw in...Mitchell hypothetically, you could tweak that trade). 

But I don't think that's unreasonable. 

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Why are they not going after guys like that? They had top 10 payrolls when they were last competitive. It makes way more sense for them to go after those guys than it does for them to trade Grayson Rodriguez and more prospects for 2 years of Corbin Burnes when they are at the beginning of their competitive window. 

They can go after Burnes and then sign him to an extension. As you say, they have the money. And as Brewerfan82 said, it's a starting point. But it's a reasonable starting point. 

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

How is Woodruff getting $10M more than Castillo despite having an extra Arb year compared to Castillo? That’s too much money. 

Castillo signing a below market deal doesn't mean Woodruff will as well. He went from Cincy to Seattle and he loved it, so he signed. 

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Woodruff being a year older counters him being marginally better than Castillo. 

Woodruff is YOUNGER than Castillo, but it's a mater of months. It's irrelevant. 

Castillo just signed a team friendly deal and that's probably a good starting point with Woodruff, but it's unlikely he signs that same deal. 

[UpandIn]

4 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The "trade Corbin Burnes and still be competitive" edition:

Kolten Wong, option declined

Brent Suter, non-tendered

Trevor Gott, non-tendered

Victor Caratini, non-tendered

Robert Suarez, signed for 2 years at 9M AAV, 3rd year team option

Jose Abreu, signed for 3 years at 18.5M AAV

Corbin Burnes, traded to BAL for Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westberg, and Seth Johnson

Tyrone Taylor, traded to OAK for A.J. Puk

Danny Jansen, acquired from TOR for Garrett Mitchell and Carlos Rodriguez (P) 

Brandon Woodruff, extended for 5 years at $118M, 6th year vesting option

Vs. RHP                                     Vs. LHP

Frelick                                      Frelick

Jansen                                     Jansen

Yelich                                       Abreu

Abreu                                       Renfroe

Tellez                                       Adames

Adames                                   Yelich

Renfroe                                    Urias

Westburg                                Westburg

Turang                                     Brosseau

 

• C: Danny Jansen ($3.70M)
• 1B: Jose Abreu ($18.50M)
• 2B: Luis Urias ($4.30M)
• 3B: Jordan Westburg ($0.70M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• CF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M)
• RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M)
• DH: Rowdy Tellez ($5.30M)
• Bench OF: Esteury Ruiz ($0.70M)
• Utility: Brice Turang ($0.70M)
• Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M)
• Backup C: Mario Feliciano ($0.70M)
• SP1: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M)
• SP2: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
• SP3: Eric Lauer ($5.20M)
• SP4: Grayson Rodriguez ($0.70M)
• SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.50M)
• CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M)
• RP: Robert Suarez ($9.00M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: AJ Puk ($0.70M)
• RP: Jake Cousins ($0.70M)
• RP: Peter Strzlecki ($0.70M)
• RP: Holby Milner ($1.10M)
• RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M)

Payroll is 3.69% under budget

I think this is my favorite one thus far. 

I think you might be a little high on one or a little low on another, but all certainly in the ballpark and we have no idea what players will actually sign for. 

I go back and forth with the pitchers. That deal is basically buying out Woody's FA years at just shy of 30M AAV...which seems like it should be closer to a Burnes type deal at the moment. I also think the longer we wait, the more ridiculous these pitchers contracts will be. I won't be the least bit surprised to hear deGrom signed for 3/140. Maybe 130...but I think he's going to shatter the AAV on a short deal. 

Verlander, I think Trevor Bauer's contract(and that's the ONLY comp I'm making) is the starting point. ~3/105.

So when you still control a player for two years, you're taking on risk and the player should be giving something up. Not sure Woodruff(or Burnes) would be giving enough up to sign at this point, but I also think the market for true ACES is going to get thrown out of whack this year a little bit. So get it done quickly or it's less likely to get done.

 

Beyond that, of all the Brewers OFers I'd like to give up, it's Ruiz and then Mitchell. And with their need in RF, he could certainly fill that need. Jansen is a near perfect bridge to Quero(ideally). And a massive upgrade right now. 

Robert Suarez-I do not understand why he's a FA, but I think that's a very reasonable deal. 2 years/18M and then maybe a 3-4M if the option isn't picked up?

Abreu-I'm not sure I'd go 3/55.5 for him, but I have said since early this season he should be the Brewers top FA target. I thought 3/45 would be in the range given his age and the fact that not many teams need 1B. 

All for the Baltimore trade. I think it's very likely don't want to part with Grayson Rodriguez, OR they'd require a period to negotiate with Burnes for their own extension before trading for him, but it's obviously just a template. Vargas, Bobby Miller and Stone or Jung, Owen White and Cole Wynn. If one team isn't willing to pay, you move on. But the takeaway from that was a MLB ready corner IFer and a couple of talented arms...right? That's a more than fair starting point. 

 

The IMPORTANT point here is that you're rebuilding the BP with a variety of different arms, but some very valuable high leverage arms. And the Brewers would have Uribe, Ecerg could be ready, Gasser...but not ready for the opening day roster. I also think with just a small tweak Matt Bush could become just dominant. 

The rotation takes a massive hit, but hopefully better health, a young phenom and the BP make up for that. 

And the lineup is rounded out very well. 

 

Now....how do you feel about the Brewers paying Willy Adames 5 million a year from 2030-2090? Because...if you're cool with that...I think you need to go back and make a slight adjustment!

[SF70]

10 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The "trade Corbin Burnes and still be competitive" edition:

Kolten Wong, option declined

Brent Suter, non-tendered

Trevor Gott, non-tendered

Victor Caratini, non-tendered

Robert Suarez, signed for 2 years at 9M AAV, 3rd year team option

Jose Abreu, signed for 3 years at 18.5M AAV

Corbin Burnes, traded to BAL for Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westberg, and Seth Johnson

Tyrone Taylor, traded to OAK for A.J. Puk

Danny Jansen, acquired from TOR for Garrett Mitchell and Carlos Rodriguez (P) 

Brandon Woodruff, extended for 5 years at $118M, 6th year vesting option

Vs. RHP                                     Vs. LHP

Frelick                                      Frelick

Jansen                                     Jansen

Yelich                                       Abreu

Abreu                                       Renfroe

Tellez                                       Adames

Adames                                   Yelich

Renfroe                                    Urias

Westburg                                Westburg

Turang                                     Brosseau

 

• C: Danny Jansen ($3.70M)
• 1B: Jose Abreu ($18.50M)
• 2B: Luis Urias ($4.30M)
• 3B: Jordan Westburg ($0.70M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• CF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M)
• RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M)
• DH: Rowdy Tellez ($5.30M)
• Bench OF: Esteury Ruiz ($0.70M)
• Utility: Brice Turang ($0.70M)
• Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M)
• Backup C: Mario Feliciano ($0.70M)
• SP1: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M)
• SP2: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
• SP3: Eric Lauer ($5.20M)
• SP4: Grayson Rodriguez ($0.70M)
• SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.50M)
• CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M)
• RP: Robert Suarez ($9.00M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: AJ Puk ($0.70M)
• RP: Jake Cousins ($0.70M)
• RP: Peter Strzlecki ($0.70M)
• RP: Holby Milner ($1.10M)
• RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M)

Payroll is 3.69% under budget

Nice job, lots of good ideas.

Like the bullpen moves. Like the Woodruff extension. Like the Idea of trading Burnes, just don’t think Baltimore is the most realistic trade-partner for Burnes, and for the reason wiguy already stated. I suppose if Baltimore thought they could extend him, ok, but that seems too risky.

Would absolutely love the return, which is likely also the problem from Baltimore’s point of view. They are short of quality IF prospects and losing Westburg and the best pitching prospect in baseball might be too much for them to bear.

Trading Mitchell is a no no for me, but including CRod would be unbearable, so no. Instead, I trade or non-tender Renfroe and use the $11M saved to sign Christian Vasquez for 2/3 years at $17-$24M. 

That way I can play Mitchell in RF until Wiemer takes over so then I have the fastest, best defensive OF in baseball most of the year, with Yelich at DH where he belongs. Which also means a trade of Tellez should happen.

[nate82]

29 minutes ago, SF70 said:

They are short of quality IF prospects and losing Westburg and the best pitching prospect in baseball might be too much for them to bear.

This is false.  Even with losing Westburg they have Gunnar Henderson who will either be the Orioles 2B, SS or 3B in '23.  They also have Connor Norby who is similar to Turang.  They have Max Wagner and Coby Mayo who will either be boom or bust prospects.  There is quality for the Orioles in the IF.  The Orioles also have recently drafted SS Jackson Holliday who comes in as the 5th best SS prospect in MLB and Norby is ranked in the top 10 for 2B.  They also have a very intriguing SS in Darell Hernaiz, an INF in Cesar Prieto and Maikol Hernandez.  Hernandez is further away as he was in the 2021 international signing class.  Some scouts have compared him to Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Correa but from the scouts I have talked to that is mostly because of his athleticism and size.  He is still very raw but they like his swing.  

[SF70]

39 minutes ago, nate82 said:

This is false.  Even with losing Westburg they have Gunnar Henderson who will either be the Orioles 2B, SS or 3B in '23.  They also have Connor Norby who is similar to Turang.  They have Max Wagner and Coby Mayo who will either be boom or bust prospects.  There is quality for the Orioles in the IF.  The Orioles also have recently drafted SS Jackson Holliday who comes in as the 5th best SS prospect in MLB and Norby is ranked in the top 10 for 2B.  They also have a very intriguing SS in Darell Hernaiz, an INF in Cesar Prieto and Maikol Hernandez.  Hernandez is further away as he was in the 2021 international signing class.  Some scouts have compared him to Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Correa but from the scouts I have talked to that is mostly because of his athleticism and size.  He is still very raw but they like his swing.  

I stand corrected.

Doesn’t change my opinion of the Orioles being a team without a burning desire to trade for Burnes. Rodriguez is as close to a likely frontline SP prospect as there has been in the minors in quite some time, imo, and he’s probably pitching in the big-leagues by July of ‘23, if not sooner.

[Brewcrew82]

Yeah, I'm not dealing with the Orioles if they don't give us Rodriguez, as I have no interest in DL Hall. Corbin Burnes is a top 3 pitcher in the game with no injury history to speak of and has two full years of control. This deal should be the Castillo trade on steroids. In that light, it's only fair that they give up a premium prospect such as Grayson Rodriguez.

As for whether the Orioles would actually pull the trigger, I think they'd be quite tempted, especially if they think they can extend Burnes. Burnes would jumpstart their competitive drive, much like Castillo did this past year for the Mariners, and would provide a top of the rotation stud that they need to compete in a tough AL East. Rodriguez is a heck of a prospect, but Burnes is already what they hope Rodriguez ultimately becomes. And, again, I just don't see them as real players for the DeGrom, Verlander, Rodon triumvirate, which means that if they want a guaranteed front of the rotation stud starting Opening Day, Burnes is their best bet. 

[Brewcrew82]

FWIW, Orioles are actually the team that walks away with excess value here.

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, I'm not dealing with the Orioles if they don't give us Rodriguez, as I have no interest in DL Hall. Corbin Burnes is a top 3 pitcher in the game with no injury history to speak of and has two full years of control. This deal should be the Castillo trade on steroids. In that light, it's only fair that they give up a premium prospect such as Grayson Rodriguez.

As for whether the Orioles would actually pull the trigger, I think they'd be quite tempted, especially if they think they can extend Burnes. Burnes would jumpstart their competitive drive, much like Castillo did this past year for the Mariners, and would provide a top of the rotation stud that they need to compete in a tough AL East. Rodriguez is a heck of a prospect, but Burnes is already what they hope Rodriguez ultimately becomes. And, again, I just don't see them as real players for the DeGrom, Verlander, Rodon triumvirate, which means that if they want a guaranteed front of the rotation stud starting Opening Day, Burnes is their best bet. 

Mets reporter believes Orioles will be involved for deGrom this offseason. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Mets reporter believes Orioles will be involved for deGrom this offseason. 

Doesn't mean they're likely to land him. For a pitcher of DeGrom's quality, there's bound to be at least 10 teams that are  "in on him". In the end, I'd be shocked if he didn't either end up back in New York or in LA or Atlanta. The most likely scenario remains that, even if they seriously pursue DeGrom, Verlander, and/or Rodon, they strike out on all three of them. 

[wiguy94]

23 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This deal should be the Castillo trade on steroids. In that light, it's only fair that they give up a premium prospect such as Grayson Rodriguez.

The big prospects in the Castillo trade were a 20 year old and 18 year old in A-ball. That's a huge difference compared to Grayson Rodriguez who is a 22 year old who would have already made his MLB debut if it wasn't for an injury. 

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

The big prospects in the Castillo trade were a 20 year old and 18 year old in A-ball. That's a huge difference compared to Grayson Rodriguez who is a 22 year old who would have already made his MLB debut if it wasn't for an injury. 

And Burnes is much better than Castillo and, unlike Castillo, has zero injury history. Just look at the BTV sample I provided. It's fair value and what the Brewers should expect if they're going to trade Burnes. 

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

And Burnes is much better than Castillo and, unlike Castillo, has zero injury history. Just look at the BTV sample I provided. It's fair value and what the Brewers should expect if they're going to trade Burnes. 

What injury history does Luis Castillo have? He has 1 IL stint in his MLB career and from what I can see he didn't have any injury history in his minor league career.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

What injury history does Luis Castillo have? He has 1 IL stint in his MLB career and from what I can see he didn't have any injury history in his minor league career.

Luis Castillo was on the IL to start the season with a shoulder injury. Burnes has ZERO injury history.

[wiguy94]

14 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Luis Castillo was on the IL to start the season with a shoulder injury. Burnes has ZERO injury history.

Burnes had an oblique injury that ended his 2020 season early. They both have 1 IL stint in their MLB careers and Castillo has pitched over 300 more innings than Burnes in his career. Neither of them have any serious injury concerns.

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Burnes had an oblique injury that ended his 2020 season early. They both have 1 IL stint in their MLB careers and Castillo has pitched over 300 more innings than Burnes in his career. Neither of them have any serious injury concerns.

My bad. I had forgotten about Burnes' oblique injury. Although, a shoulder injury is definitely more worrisome and that occurred just this year. 

Bottom line, Burnes is just plain better than Castillo and has two full years of control versus Castillo's then-1.5 years.