jay87shot’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[jay87shot]

1)Pickup Wong Option

2)Extend Woody (6/115, 11,16, 4 at 22)

3)Trade Burnes to Tor for Moreno, Tiedmann, Yusei Kikuchi, Tanner Morris, and lotto type piece

4)Trade Adames to Dodgers Vargas, Pepiot, Emmett Sheehan

5)Trade Rowdy for Sixto Sanchez

5)Trade Yandy Diaz for Estuery Ruiz, Justin Jarvis, a PTBNL (mid level)

6)Trade Houser to Ari for Seth Beer and Bryce Jarvis

7)Keston to Detriot for a prospect

8)Sign an experienced lefty pen option Britton 1/6 with incentives for games pitched that goes to 1/10.

Start with a 6 man rotation with Pepiot, Ashby, and Sanchez piggybacking 3 spots. If things go well end with a 5 man and make the odd man/men out high caliber relief pitchers. Tiedmann (Gasser/Sheehan) could be ready at some point too making lots of end of the year high end arms and depth.

I feel there is a Robbie Ray type jump possible in Kikuchi if he can hone in on accuracy and cut the long ball. In this case our pitching team has done well and would reap some value (we could even get Toronto to eat a little of his salary).

Diaz, Vargas, and Urias split 1B/3B, I put Diaz at 1st and Vargas at 3rd because Diaz is a slightly below average 3B to give the young guy a shot. 

Urias and Taylor get plenty of ab's as key reserves. Also Yeli can step in and play OF occasionally.

We also would have a bunch of money and prospect capitol to make a big move at the deadline if need be.

I get that 5 rookies in everyday positions isn't reasonable or likely but with an experienced bench I think it could work

 

• C: Moreno ($0.7M)
• 1B: Yandy Diaz ($6M)
• 2B: Kolton Wong ($8M)
• 3B: Miguel Vargas ($0.7M)
• SS: Brice Turang ($0.7M)
• LF: Sal Frelich ($.7M)
• CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M)
• RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M)
• DH: Christian Yelich ($22M)
• Bench OF: Tyrone Taylor ($2M)
• Utility: Luis Urias ($4.5M)
• Utility: Brousseau ($1M)
• Backup C: Caratini ($2.8M)
• SP1: Woodruff ($11M)
• SP2: Yusei Kikuchi ($12M)
• SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
• SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.20M)
• SP5: Pepiot ($0.7M)
• CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M)
• RP: Strezlecki ($0.7M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: Brad Boxberger ($3.00M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.10M)
• RP: Zach Britton ($6M)
• RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.00M)
• RP: Sanchez ($0.7M)

Payroll is 14.54% under budget

[wibadgers23]

Well done.  This is probably my favorite blueprint so far.  Really like the Adames trade and love the idea of getting Diaz to play 1B.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

1)Pickup Wong Option

2)Extend Woody (6/115, 11,16, 4 at 22)

3)Trade Burnes to Tor for Moreno, Tiedmann, Yusei Kikuchi, Tanner Morris, and lotto type piece

4)Trade Adames to Dodgers Vargas, Pepiot, Emmett Sheehan

5)Trade Rowdy for Sixto Sanchez

5)Trade Yandy Diaz for Estuery Ruiz, Justin Jarvis, a PTBNL (mid level)

6)Trade Houser to Ari for Seth Beer and Bryce Jarvis

7)Keston to Detriot for a prospect

8)Sign an experienced lefty pen option Britton 1/6 with incentives for games pitched that goes to 1/10.

Start with a 6 man rotation with Pepiot, Ashby, and Sanchez piggybacking 3 spots. If things go well end with a 5 man and make the odd man/men out high caliber relief pitchers. Tiedmann (Gasser/Sheehan) could be ready at some point too making lots of end of the year high end arms and depth.

I feel there is a Robbie Ray type jump possible in Kikuchi if he can hone in on accuracy and cut the long ball. In this case our pitching team has done well and would reap some value (we could even get Toronto to eat a little of his salary).

Diaz, Vargas, and Urias split 1B/3B, I put Diaz at 1st and Vargas at 3rd because Diaz is a slightly below average 3B to give the young guy a shot. 

Urias and Taylor get plenty of ab's as key reserves. Also Yeli can step in and play OF occasionally.

We also would have a bunch of money and prospect capitol to make a big move at the deadline if need be.

I get that 5 rookies in everyday positions isn't reasonable or likely but with an experienced bench I think it could work

 

• C: Moreno ($0.7M)
• 1B: Yandy Diaz ($6M)
• 2B: Kolton Wong ($8M)
• 3B: Miguel Vargas ($0.7M)
• SS: Brice Turang ($0.7M)
• LF: Sal Frelich ($.7M)
• CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M)
• RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M)
• DH: Christian Yelich ($22M)
• Bench OF: Tyrone Taylor ($2M)
• Utility: Luis Urias ($4.5M)
• Utility: Brousseau ($1M)
• Backup C: Caratini ($2.8M)
• SP1: Woodruff ($11M)
• SP2: Yusei Kikuchi ($12M)
• SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M)
• SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.20M)
• SP5: Pepiot ($0.7M)
• CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M)
• RP: Strezlecki ($0.7M)
• RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M)
• RP: Brad Boxberger ($3.00M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.10M)
• RP: Zach Britton ($6M)
• RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.00M)
• RP: Sanchez ($0.7M)

Payroll is 14.54% under budget

Definitely creative, though this roster probably isn't a contender next season. I would note a few things:

1) There is no reason for the Brewers to accept Kikuchi being a part of a Burnes trade. Not at that salary and with a career ERA over 5. TBH, I don't get the Robbie Ray comparison, especially considering that TOR was the team that turned Ray into a Cy Young winner, whereas they weren't able to get anything out of Kikuchi last season. And Ray at least had a previous season where he was an upper tier starting pitcher (2017). Kikuchi has yet to post an ERA under 4 in any season to go along with consistently underwhelming K/BB numbers. Without Kikuchi, the Brewers should still be able to get one of the Jays' catchers (Kirk or Moreno) and Tiedemann.

2) I don't quite understand the logic of replacing Rowdy with Diaz at 1B. Diaz will give you really good BA/OBP numbers for sure, but Diaz is also a butcher at any position and falls well short of Rowdy's power output. Then, consider that Rowdy is due to be one of the biggest beneficiaries in the game of the shift ban and will cost less in both salary and prospects. Just doesn't make sense imo. 

3) Not sure Zack Britton is the way to go for upgrading the bullpen. Would be a huge risk for the Brewers even at $6 MIL when he's coming off TJ surgery and his stuff/peripherals have started to measurably decline. 

[Jopal78]

I like this blue print as I do think the Brewers will make some major changes to last year's group.

However, I don't think Milwaukee would get 2 major league ready top 100 prospects (Vargas and Pepiot) plus a third player for Willy Adames. If they could they should pull the trigger on that trade every single time (6 years of WAR from Vargas and Pepiot most likely > than 2 years of Adames).  From the Dodgers perspective, it doesn't make them better in the short run or the long run especially when they could simply sign Correa and keep the prospects. 

Also Sixto Sanchez has not pitched at all in two years due to shoulder injuries. I don't think any team would take on a player with that kind of red flag. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

I like this blue print as I do think the Brewers will make some major changes to last year's group.

However, I don't think Milwaukee would get 2 major league ready top 100 prospects (Vargas and Pepiot) plus a third player for Willy Adames. If they could they should pull the trigger on that trade every single time (6 years of WAR from Vargas and Pepiot most likely > than 2 years of Adames).  From the Dodgers perspective, it doesn't make them better in the short run or the long run especially when they could simply sign Correa and keep the prospects. 

Also Sixto Sanchez has not pitched at all in two years due to shoulder injuries. I don't think any team would take on a player with that kind of red flag. 

Pepiot and Vargas for Adames is actually a very even trade. While only controlled for 2 more seasons, Adames is an elite defensive SS with big-time power who is just now entering his prime. And it does make them better in the short run as their only other option at the position is Lux. They may want to focus their spending efforts on pitching and the outfield (i.e. Judge), so not spending as much at SS with Adames could be very appealing to them as opposed to going after one of the big-time FA SS. 

Also, I don't get why you think "major" changes to last year's group will be made, when the FO has already stated they plan on returning "the core". Granted, that was Stearns who made that statement, but I seriously doubt Arnold thinks differently. 

[Jopal78]

12 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Pepiot and Vargas for Adames is actually a very even trade. While only controlled for 2 more seasons, Adames is an elite defensive SS with big-time power who is just now entering his prime. And it does make them better in the short run as their only other option at the position is Lux. They may want to focus their spending efforts on pitching and the outfield (i.e. Judge), so not spending as much at SS with Adames could be very appealing to them as opposed to going after one of the big-time FA SS. 

I don't know, but I kind of doubt it. In terms of WAR (according to Baseball Reference) the Brewers have gotten 7.1 WAR of value from Adames. The Rays have gotten 6.6 WAR from Rasmussen and Feyereisen, but have each of those guys through 2026. Absent injuries the WAR from Rasmussen and Feyereisen in TB will be > than Adames' WAR with Milwaukee. 

It would be the same with the Dodgers, Adames is a fine player but two MLB ready top 100 prospects and a third player to boot likely ends up with significantly more WAR going to Milwaukee. If a team is desperate to plug a hole I could see it, but that isn't how the Dodgers do business. If they believe those two guys can play, they'll plug Pepiot and Vargas into their roster and simply sign someone to play SS. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

I don't know, but I kind of doubt it. In terms of WAR (according to Baseball Reference) the Brewers have gotten 7.1 WAR of value from Adames. The Rays have gotten 6.6 WAR from Rasmussen and Feyereisen, but have each of those guys through 2026. Absent injuries the WAR from Rasmussen and Feyereisen in TB will be > than Adames' WAR with Milwaukee. 

It would be the same with the Dodgers, Adames is a fine player but two MLB ready top 100 prospects and a third player to boot likely ends up with significantly more WAR going to Milwaukee. If a team is desperate to plug a hole I could see it, but that isn't how the Dodgers do business. If they believe those two guys can play, they'll plug Pepiot and Vargas into their roster and simply sign someone to play SS. 

This has nothing to do with Rasmussen or Feyereisen. That trade was pretty clearly a win for both sides. What it's about is Adames being a top 10 player the past couple of seasons at perhaps the premium position in the game and the fact that said player is now just entering his prime. Those guys have tremendous value, even with only two years of control remaining. A top 30/40 prospect such as Vargas and back-end top 100 prospect in Pepiot is about as close to an even swap as it gets. Just take a look:

[jay87shot]

18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Definitely creative, though this roster probably isn't a contender next season. I would note a few things:

1) There is no reason for the Brewers to accept Kikuchi being a part of a Burnes trade. Not at that salary and with a career ERA over 5. TBH, I don't get the Robbie Ray comparison, especially considering that TOR was the team that turned Ray into a Cy Young winner, whereas they weren't able to get anything out of Kikuchi last season. And Ray at least had a previous season where he was an upper tier starting pitcher (2017). Kikuchi has yet to post an ERA under 4 in any season to go along with consistently underwhelming K/BB numbers. Without Kikuchi, the Brewers should still be able to get one of the Jays' catchers (Kirk or Moreno) and Tiedemann.

2) I don't quite understand the logic of replacing Rowdy with Diaz at 1B. Diaz will give you really good BA/OBP numbers for sure, but Diaz is also a butcher at any position and falls well short of Rowdy's power output. Then, consider that Rowdy is due to be one of the biggest beneficiaries in the game of the shift ban and will cost less in both salary and prospects. Just doesn't make sense imo. 

3) Not sure Zack Britton is the way to go for upgrading the bullpen. Would be a huge risk for the Brewers even at $6 MIL when he's coming off TJ surgery and his stuff/peripherals have started to measurably decline. 

1) Kikucki has great stuff and our staff has had success with guys tweeking small mechanics, grips, or adding a pitch and making a difference. I just used Ray as a reference as a guy who had the stuff and struggled but something small changed his results. I am sure you could put in a top 10 prospect in the Jays system instead and then sign a pitcher. I didn't put it in the numbers but I am sure we could get the Jays to pay off some of his 2/24 to make it more favorable since he has a career 5 era.

2) Diaz is awful at 3rd but has a +2 drs in over 900 innings at 1st in his career. The bat would bring a ton of consistency to the team and play from 2-5 in the lineup. Diaz was worth 3.5 WAR last year and thats with -5 drs at 3rd, if he would continue average work at 1st that is a huge improvement over Rowdy. I get Rowdy should get some pick me up with the shift but I doubt it's 3 wins worth.

3) I really meant any higher end lefty reliever, Matt Moore, Taylor Rogers, Will Smith, Andrew Chafin, Brad Hand, Aroldis Chapman and maybe some righties with good splits who could fit the 4-8 million price range on a 1 or 2 year deal.

17 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Also Sixto Sanchez has not pitched at all in two years due to shoulder injuries. I don't think any team would take on a player with that kind of red flag. 

I just picked a younger Marlins pitchers, I like Sanchez's upside but acknowledge there is a large risk. I am sure you could switch in a different starter with a little adjustment. Maybe even a reliever like Tanner Scott would work.