MLB Draft Lottery TONIGHT - 7:30pm C (Brewers have chance at #1 pick)

[MrTPlush]

Surprised no one has really talked about this, but the first ever draft lottery is occurring tonight. The first 6 picks will be a part of the lottery, the Brewers will have a measly 0.2% chance at the top pick of the draft. 

Few notes:

1) The Brewers have nothing to lose tonight. They are the last team in the lottery draft, so no team has worse odds and the ability to jump in front of them, In the (likely) case they don't win one of the Top 6 picks, they will draft #18.

2) For the future...large markets cannot be in the lottery consecutive years and small markets can't do it three consecutive years. In the event a team is not eligible for the lottery they can't pick higher than #10. So if that ineligible team was one of the 1-9 worst records they would get bumped to #10 or worse. 

3) The Brewers would be ineligible for the 2025 draft lottery unless they make the postseason to reset the clock. So if we fire sale after this year and end up the worst team in baseball for 2024...we would be picking #10 the draft 2025 draft. 

4) Some years could be very interesting if enough large markets end up missing the postseason consecutive years...especially if that second year they are occupying any of the 1-6 spots.

The MLB draft lottery, explained - SBNation.com

[StearnsFTW]

Just came to post this.

2.1% chance to jump into the top 6.

I can't believe that bit about 3 years in a row (not doubting you, just can't believe that's a rule).

Seems rough.

[MrTPlush]

2 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Just came to post this.

2.1% chance to jump into the top 6.

I can't believe that bit about 3 years in a row (not doubting you, just can't believe that's a rule).

Seems rough.

Well, it only hurts you if you decide to be one of the Top 9 worst teams in baseball. If you are 10-18 you will basically just pick where you should...minus a team jumping in front of you. You just lose the ability to benefit via the lottery. The only concern is the poor timing it could be for some teams. Usually, you don't go from playoff team to a mega dumpster fire overnight. Often times it will take a few years to hit rock bottom. Not crazy to think the Brewers rock bottom could be the 2024 season, where they could potentially be capped at #10 overall. 

It could very well test the theory of what they are trying to accomplish with all of this though. The Brewers would lose motivation to tank for a pick and would instead looking to pick up some 1-2 year FAs to field a decent team that year. Stops them from tanking the payroll too. Of course, a cheap arse owner is likely to just not care and accept picking much lower than their record reflects to save tens of millions. The rest of the rounds are based off of record and the next year you would be lottery eligible again.

[BallFour]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

3) The Brewers would be ineligible for the 2025 draft lottery unless they make the postseason to reset the clock. So if we fire sale after this year and end up the worst team in baseball for 2024...we would be picking #10 the draft 2025 draft. 

Pretty sure resetting the clock has to do with actually picking in the top 6 and not to do with the playoffs.

[MrTPlush]

4 minutes ago, BallFour said:

Pretty sure resetting the clock has to do with actually picking in the top 6 and not to do with the playoffs.

You are correct. The first article didn't explain it well. You can be in the lottery as many years as you want...you cannot win a spot 1-6 at will though...that is where the limitations take effect. 

I still can't find anywhere that shows the teams that receive revenue sharing (small markets) and ones that don't (large markets). 

[nate82]

18 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

You are correct. The first article didn't explain it well. You can be in the lottery as many years as you want...you cannot win a spot 1-6 at will though...that is where the limitations take effect. 

I still can't find anywhere that shows the teams that receive revenue sharing (small markets) and ones that don't (large markets). 

I believe the list is this now.  The A's were removed in the previous CBA but are now back in the list.  I think the Padres maybe removed now but I kept them in as I couldn't find anything if they have been removed or not and I do not believe their market score is above 100.  The Braves and Astros (market scores above 100) have also been removed from the previous CBA and I don't see anything that they were added back. 

Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays.

Don't ask on the calculation for market score it is only known by MLB. 

[BallFour]

22 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

You are correct. The first article didn't explain it well. You can be in the lottery as many years as you want...you cannot win a spot 1-6 at will though...that is where the limitations take effect. 

I still can't find anywhere that shows the teams that receive revenue sharing (small markets) and ones that don't (large markets). 

This is from the previous CBA so it isn't perfect I believe Houston, Seattle and Atlanta have all moved up to being a payor instead of payee. Vice versa I believe Oakland is being phased back into being a payee.

[BallFour]

16 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I believe the list is this now.  The A's were removed in the previous CBA but are now back in the list.  I think the Padres maybe removed now but I kept them in as I couldn't find anything if they have been removed or not and I do not believe their market score is above 100.  The Braves and Astros (market scores above 100) have also been removed from the previous CBA and I don't see anything that they were added back. 

Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays.

Don't ask on the calculation for market score it is only known by MLB. 

You can actually read the intricacies of the calculation in the CBA since it was collectively bargained. I do not recommend though, ha.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I know a lot of people hate it but I kinda like the idea of a draft lottery. It takes something completely mundane and makes a small spectacle of it.

[MrTPlush]

12 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I know a lot of people hate it but I kinda like the idea of a draft lottery. It takes something completely mundane and makes a small spectacle of it.

I kinda like the idea of having a shot at an elite pick and it doesn't require intentionally being totally garbage or being the worst ran team in baseball. 

[igor67]

I kind of like it as well. I'll be a huge fan if we move up significantly. It shouldn't be a focus of the pick, but getting lucky enough to pick in the top 6 could be a difference maker in terms of competitiveness in a couple of years. Somewhat unlikely given how long development normally takes, but getting a top talent potentially is always important.

[BallFour]

18 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I know a lot of people hate it but I kinda like the idea of a draft lottery. It takes something completely mundane and makes a small spectacle of it.

As Brewers fans we should be really happy with the new lottery rules. At least now we have some sort of odds of picking in the top 6, especially as it gets rolling with teams being taken out of the lottery and placed 10th. Brewers have only picked once in the top 6 since 2005, so will take any odds we can get.

[MrTPlush]

29 minutes ago, BallFour said:

As Brewers fans we should be really happy with the new lottery rules. At least now we have some sort of odds of picking in the top 6, especially as it gets rolling with teams being taken out of the lottery and placed 10th. Brewers have only picked once in the top 6 since 2005, so will take any odds we can get.

Must have picked a total stud when we did!

On a serious note, yah, our organization is ran really well top to bottom at this point. The odds we end up in the Top 6 any time soon and actually get screwed over is really unlikely.

[nate82]

Brewers stay at 18.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins made out like bandits. They jumped from 13 to 5.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I'm sure I am overthinking the rules, but let's say its a crazy year and the worst 9 teams are all ineligible for the lottery.  So does that mean the 10-12 teams now get 16.5% chance of getting the top spot in the lottery (and so on)?  And then once the first 6 picks are selected, picks 7-9 would go to the remaining eligible teams and the original worst 1-9 are slotted 10-18?

If so, It would be fun to watch.

[BallFour]

10 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

I'm sure I am overthinking the rules, but let's say its a crazy year and the worst 9 teams are all ineligible for the lottery.  So does that mean the 10-12 teams now get 16.5% chance of getting the top spot in the lottery (and so on)?  And then once the first 6 picks are selected, picks 7-9 would go to the remaining eligible teams and the original worst 1-9 are slotted 10-18?

If so, It would be fun to watch.

In your scenario I think teams 10-12 would have even higher odds than 16.5% because only 9 teams would be playing the lottery.

[SomewhereInTime]

Draft lotteries are stupid.  Either have a reverse draft order or don't.  Adding variance doesn't change the fact that the worst teams are in best position for the draft.

There are three options that work, reverse draft order based on previous season finish, completely randomized draft selections every year regardless of previous season finish, or complete rotation (i.e. pick 29th this year, 30th next year, 1st the year after, 2nd the year after, and so on).