Article: Brewers Spring Training Battles: Javy Guerra vs. Joel Payamps vs. Gus Varland

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Strzelecki profiles as a better leverage RP because his pitch makeup is better against LHP and he has a capable 3rd pitch while Cousins doesn't. 

Cousins' 2022 OPS splits are quite evident. 

MLB: .589 vs RHB, .861 vs LHB

AAA: .493 vs RHB, .799 vs LHB

127 total PA vs RHB with 11 BB and 4 HBP compared to 88 PA vs LHB with 16 BB and 3 HBP. Walks are out of control against LHB.

Strzelecki's 2022 OPS splits look much better. 

MLB: .607 vs RHB, .676 vs LHB

AAA: .577 vs RHB, .674 vs LHB

254 total PA vs RHB with 21 BB and 3 HBP compared to 162 PA vs LHB with 19 BB and 1 HBP. 

Cousins had 19 BB+HBP in 88 PA vs LHB. Strzelecki had 20 BB+HBP in 162 PA vs LHB. Seems pretty clear to me why the Brewers view Strzelecki as a high leverage guy and Cousins as a guy with question marks still.

 

Counterpoint:

Adam Ottavino, who Cousins has a similar arsenal to in terms of relying almost exclusively on a mid 90s two-seamer and a sharp, biting slider, put up the following splits last season: 

.301/.358/.479/.837 vs. RHP; .160/.226/.253/.479

So, like Cousins, Ottavino also has sharp splits largely due to his reliance on his slider. Yet, Ottavino was one of the best relievers in the majors last year as the set-up man for Edwin Diaz (and has been really good before then). 

Yes, you probably don't want to use him in situations with multiple lefties up and he could stand to improve his control (which is quite similar to Ottavino before last year fwiw), but Cousins has proven himself to be a capable high-leverage arm with the ability to rack-up K's in droves. A tandem with Strzelecki and Cousins in the 6th/7th innings could be lethal. I have no idea why the Brewers would want to stash him in AAA in favor of Bryse Wilson. 

[MVP2110]

Yea we aren't talking about what appears to be a fringe major leaguer with Cousins. Cousins has be great during his time in the majors, you play the options game when the 2 players are of similar quality. 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Counterpoint:

Adam Ottavino, who Cousins has a similar arsenal to in terms of relying almost exclusively on a mid 90s two-seamer and a sharp, biting slider, put up the following splits last season: 

.301/.358/.479/.837 vs. RHP; .160/.226/.253/.479

So, like Cousins, Ottavino also has sharp splits largely due to his reliance on his slider. Yet, Ottavino was one of the best relievers in the majors last year as the set-up man for Edwin Diaz (and has been really good before then). 

Yes, you probably don't want to use him in situations with multiple lefties up and he could stand to improve his control (which is quite similar to Ottavino before last year fwiw), but Cousins has proven himself to be a capable high-leverage arm with the ability to rack-up K's in droves. A tandem with Strzelecki and Cousins in the 6th/7th innings could be lethal. I have no idea why the Brewers would want to stash him in AAA in favor of Bryse Wilson. 

Ottavino had 7 BB+HBP in 81 PA against LHP and their success against him was largely on the back of a .392 BABIP. His command is miles above Cousins so comparing them is pretty pointless. Plus Ottavino's arsenal is more diverse than Cousins.

Ottavino's aresenal last year: SL - 43%, SI - 33%, 4FB - 12%, CH - 7%, CU - 5%,

Cousins' arsenal last year: SL - 56%, SI - 43%, CH - 1%

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Ottavino had 7 BB+HBP in 81 PA against LHP and their success against him was largely on the back of a .392 BABIP. His command is miles above Cousins so comparing them is pretty pointless. Plus Ottavino's arsenal is more diverse than Cousins.

Ottavino's aresenal last year: SL - 43%, SI - 33%, 4FB - 12%, CH - 7%, CU - 5%,

Cousins' arsenal last year: SL - 56%, SI - 43%, CH - 1%

That's why I said, "until last year". Ottavino's BB%'s from 2017-2021: 16%, 11.7%, 14.1%, 10.6%, 13%. And Ottavino was still a really good pitcher most of those years...Cousins has walk issues, yes, but they're not that dissimilar from Ottavino's before last year. And his peripherals are very solid.

"Their success against him was largely on the back of a .392 BABIP." Well, Ottavino also has a career .796 OPS against LHH, nearly 200 points higher than against RHH.....

More diverse arsenal than Cousins? I suppose, though that doesn't change the fact that they're both heavy slider/sinker pitchers...

Far from a pointless comparison. Fact of the matter is that Cousins has been one of our best relievers over the past two seasons when healthy. Stashing him in AAA for the sake of keeping Bryse Wilson on the roster would be silly. 

[wallus]

Unless there are injuries, the Opening Day bullpen will be all about who has options and who doesn't. I expect Cousins and Strez to be in AAA to start the season. (baring injuries)

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, wallus said:

Unless there are injuries, the Opening Day bullpen will be all about who has options and who doesn't. I expect Cousins and Strez to be in AAA to start the season. (baring injuries)

I'd consider Strzelecki basically a lock. Brewers have talked about him as high leverage guy pretty much all offseason. Cousins not so much a lock. He has a chance to make the opening day roster, but likely would involve showing some improvement on his command this spring training.

[Seth Stohs]

#TeamVarland

 

[wallus]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I'd consider Strzelecki basically a lock. Brewers have talked about him as high leverage guy pretty much all offseason. Cousins not so much a lock. He has a chance to make the opening day roster, but likely would involve showing some improvement on his command this spring training.

Maybe but the odds of a real injury or some "discomfort" that leads to an IL stint is probably pretty high. These situations usually work themselves out.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, wallus said:

Maybe but the odds of a real injury or some "discomfort" that leads to an IL stint is probably pretty high. These situations usually work themselves out.

Why are the odds of an injury or "discomfort" leading to an IL stint pretty high for Strzelecki...a guy the Brewers have been talking up all offseason. 

[wallus]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Why are the odds of an injury or "discomfort" leading to an IL stint pretty high for Strzelecki...a guy the Brewers have been talking up all offseason. 

I was talking about the bullpen candidates and not Strzelecki himself...

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, wallus said:

I was talking about the bullpen candidates and not Strzelecki himself...

Assuming health, what is your opening day bullpen that puts Strzelecki in AAA? Also assume we carry 6 SP (Burnes, Woodruff, Freddy, Lauer, Miley, Houser) so you only need 7 RP.

[wallus]

52 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Assuming health, what is your opening day bullpen that puts Strzelecki in AAA? Also assume we carry 6 SP (Burnes, Woodruff, Freddy, Lauer, Miley, Houser) so you only need 7 RP.

Williams, Bush, Milner, Wilson, Houser, Guerra, Payamps, and Varland.

This could change if Varland really falls on his face or if they send some cash or a lotto ticket to the Dodgers so we can send Varland to AAA. 

[SF70]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

That's why I said, "until last year". Ottavino's BB%'s from 2017-2021: 16%, 11.7%, 14.1%, 10.6%, 13%. And Ottavino was still a really good pitcher most of those years...Cousins has walk issues, yes, but they're not that dissimilar from Ottavino's before last year. And his peripherals are very solid.

"Their success against him was largely on the back of a .392 BABIP." Well, Ottavino also has a career .796 OPS against LHH, nearly 200 points higher than against RHH.....

More diverse arsenal than Cousins? I suppose, though that doesn't change the fact that they're both heavy slider/sinker pitchers...

Far from a pointless comparison. Fact of the matter is that Cousins has been one of our best relievers over the past two seasons when healthy. Stashing him in AAA for the sake of keeping Bryse Wilson on the roster would be silly. 

Agree with the author that Bryse Wilson is a virtual lock to make the bullpen unless he really stinks it up in ST. I think the Brewers feel his stuff will play-up some pitching shorter stints out of the pen as well.

[DR28]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

Agree with the author that Bryse Wilson is a virtual lock to make the bullpen unless he really stinks it up in ST. I think the Brewers feel his stuff will play-up some pitching shorter stints out of the pen as well.

That's fine... He takes Guerra or Payamp's spot in the pen.

Cousins needs to be in the bullpen come OD, dude is a legit bullpen arm.