Article: It’s Now or (Maybe) Never for Seventh-Year Minor Leaguers

[Ro Mueller]

Michele Vassalotti and nine other Brewers minor leaguers have a huge year ahead of them, in their final season before becoming minor-league free agents. Who among them will make the leap toward a 40-man MLB roster spot in 2023?

Image courtesy of © Scott Paulus / Milwaukee Brewers, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via Imagn Content Services, LLC

In March 2018, former 2012 second-round pick Tyrone Taylor was coming off three consecutive sub-.700 OPS seasons at AA Biloxi and entering his seventh and final season of team control. All signs seemed to indicate that this once-promising prospect had, unfortunately, reached his ceiling.

But with his back against the wall, Taylor spun a phenomenal career pirouette in 2018, posting an .825 OPS with stellar outfield play at Triple-A Colorado Springs. That earned him a place on the Brewers’ 40-man MLB roster on October 29, 2018, just days before he would have become a minor-league free agent.

Which minor leaguer entering his final season of team control could be this year’s version of Tyrone Taylor? The following ten players find themselves particularly under the microscope this spring.

Prospect Status is Still Shining

Michele Vassalotti – RHRP – 22 – The Brewers signed Vassalotti as an international free agent in June 2017, and he immediately impressed in the DSL, with a 1.63 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. However, he then struggled for the next three active seasons, including ERAs over 7.00 in 2019 (Rookie Rocky Mountain) and 2021 (Low-A Carolina). Given another shot in Carolina in 2022, this time purely in a bullpen role, Michele was exceptional for the first four months of the season (2.04 ERA, 11.7 K/9 through 35 1/3 innings) before some year-end fatigue set in. After impressing for Italy against Panama at the World Baseball Classic (4 IP, 1 R, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 Ks), let’s hope his momentum carries into an exceptional 2023 season.

Karlos Morales – LHRP – 23 – Drafted in the 25th round in 2017, Morales didn’t post an ERA below 8.00 in any of his first three seasons in Arizona, but was (somewhat surprisingly) still in the organization after the 2020 Covid wipeout. In 2021, he registered a terrific increase in strikeout rate (13.2 K/9) while still in Arizona, but his 5.34 ERA and 1.71 WHIP were nothing special. However, he followed up with easily his best campaign in 2022, posting a 2.35 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 while principally at Low-A Carolina. Will the Brewers send Karlos to Double-A Biloxi for a serious test? Don’t forget to check out the weekly podcast that Mr. Morales participates in.

Ernesto Martínez – 1B – 23 – Signed as an international free agent for $800,000 in May 2017, Martínez has mashed in four of his five active seasons (.792 career OPS), but his progress was stunted by a lost 2020 season, delayed promotion from Carolina in 2021 despite an .876 OPS with nine homers through his first 60 games that season, then an injury-filled 2022 campaign at High-A Wisconsin. Now entering his final season under the Brewers’ control, Martínez needs to make the jump and immediately perform at Biloxi, despite having just 77 High-A plate appearances (.792 OPS) under his belt. No pressure.

Starting to Look Like Greybeard AAAA Players

Caleb Boushley – 29 – RHP (starter) – Born in Hortonville, Boushley was selected by the Padres out of UW-La Crosse in the 33rd round of the 2017 draft. He performed at a high level in 2018 (2.71 ERA, mainly at Low-A) and 2019 (3.61 ERA, mainly at High-A) before leaping to AAA for most of 2021 and (understandably) struggling. The Brewers then nabbed him with the 22nd pick of the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, and he came through with a fabulous 2022 season: 12-2 record, 3.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP at Triple-A Nashville, though with a disturbing drop to only 6.4 K/9 and a really fortunate BABIP (.256). Will Boushley be the 2023 version of Jason Alexander, surprisingly making a number of starts in the majors?

Matt Hardy – 27 – RHP (reliever) – Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2017, Hardy struggled through his first two seasons before a breakout campaign at Carolina in 2019 (3.32 ERA, 10.0 K/9). He continued that success at Biloxi in 2021 (3.83 ERA, 11.1 K/9) before finding it a bit more difficult at Nashville last year (4.15 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 8.3 K/9). Hardy has had an active “offseason”, being one of the top relievers in the Puerto Rican Winter League (0.64 ERA, 0.82 WHIP in 28 IP), before having a rough time with Panama at the WBC. Can Matt find another gear this season, thus positioning himself as a future MLB bullpen piece in Milwaukee (or elsewhere)?

Tristen Lutz – 24 – OF – This former first round pick (34th overall in 2017; $2.352m signing bonus) can take inspiration from predecessors Taylor and Trent Grisham, both of whose career arcs appeared stalled before sudden success. Lutz’s path to the majors appeared on course through 2019 (.754 OPS at Carolina, with 13 HR), but the Covid wipeout and a down 2021 (.654 OPS at Biloxi) pushed him off track. A nice revival in 2022 (.796 OPS with 12 HR in a Double-A repeat) was helped by a .344 BABIP, likely requiring the team to give him a legitimate shot in the Nashville outfield in 2023.

It's Time to Put it All Together

Justin Bullock – 23 – RHP – Bullock was selected in the 16th round of the 2017 draft ($295,000 bonus), and has put together an up-and-down career to date (5.18 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8.6 K/9). His most promising period was a 14-game stretch across three organizational levels in the first half of 2021 (2.91 ERA in 74 1/3 innings), but he really struggled at Biloxi in late 2021 and early 2022 before heading back to Wisconsin and ultimately having his season end in early August due to an injury. We’ve not yet seen an indication of whether he’s fully recovered for his pivotal 2023 campaign.

Max Lazar – 23 – RHP – Lazar was also a 2017 draft pick, chosen in the 11th round ($475,000 bonus). A respectable 2018 season in the hitter-friendly Pioneer League (4.37 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) was followed by a phenomenal 2019 at Wisconsin: 2.39 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 12.4 K/9. Unfortunately, that momentum was derailed by the lost 2020 season, then a 2021 year wrecked by an injury that required Tommy John surgery. The Brewers eased him back in for the 2022 season, as he threw just 40 innings (3.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 – primarily at Wisconsin), which he then followed up with 46 innings in Australia this winter (3.72 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.2 K/9). Is a move to the Biloxi bullpen in store for Lazar in 2023?

Je’Von Ward – 23 – OF – The Brewers grabbed Ward in the 12th round of the 2017 draft ($475,000 bonus), but apart from a decent 2018 season in the Pioneer League (.795 OPS vs. .777 league average), his key tools have yet to come to the fore. Through 1,137 PAs over four active seasons, Ward owns a .692 OPS with nine home runs and 31 stolen bases (against 23 caught stealing), while spending 71% of his innings in left field (26% RF, 3% CF). It’s been an excruciating (literally) past three years for him: no action in 2020, played with a torn UCL much of 2021 before Tommy John surgery, no action in 2022 due to a torn left knee in spring training. Finally healthy again, the Brewers sent him to the Arizona Fall League in October, where he acquitted himself well: .785 OPS with four stolen bases and an 11-to-15 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 50 plate appearances. Can Ward breakout at Biloxi in 2023, à la Grisham in 2019?

Brent Diaz – 26 – C – Last but not least, Diaz was selected in the 29th round of the 2017 draft, quietly and consistently putting together respectable minor-league seasons. Through five active years, he owns a .727 career OPS (876 PAs) and has thrown out 28% of attempted base stealers. He repeated Low-A in 2019 (.746 OPS), was rushed to Biloxi in 2021 (.636 OPS), then surprised with a .261/.342/.422 slash line while repeating the level in 2022, assisted slightly by a .320 BABIP. Barring injury to Payton Henry, Alex Jackson or Brian Navarreto, I’d expect that Brent will commence his third consecutive campaign as a Shucker, aiming to build on last year’s success.

Which of these ten prospects do you expect will be the first to reach the Major Leagues?  Who will have the best MLB career?  Let us know what you think!

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[Joseph Zarr]

Awesome stuff. Thanks for showing us the landscape.

[Jim Goulart]

Fantastic perspective provided, sir, thanks!

Although these three players don't fall within the "seven-year" parameters as those listed and were understandably not included in the article here, they all re-signed last fall upon reaching a similar circumstance, seven years all with the Crew:

So at the end of 2023, these players would be ending Year Eight:

RHP Harold Chirino
RHP Lucas Erceg
C Jose Sibrian

(We are including RHP Caleb Boushley as having spent his full career with the Crew, considering he was picked up in Minor League Rule 5 and thus has never reached minor league free agency.)

[Ro Mueller]

Thanks for the feedback, gents. Maybe I should have made some predictions!:

- Hardy and Boushley both make MLB debuts in 2023
- Ernesto Martinez romps in AA and gets traded to a team that’s ready to give him a year-end 40-man MLB roster spot
- Vassalotti and Morales get pushed to AA relatively early in the season and struggle, with both re-upping with the Brewers for an 8th season
- Lutz, Bullock, Lazar, Ward and Diaz all compete hard, then head out to other organizations as MILB free agents at year-end

[logani54]

11 hours ago, damuelle said:

Thanks for the feedback, gents. Maybe I should have made some predictions!:

- Hardy and Boushley both make MLB debuts in 2023
- Ernesto Martinez romps in AA and gets traded to a team that’s ready to give him a year-end 40-man MLB roster spot
- Vassalotti and Morales get pushed to AA relatively early in the season and struggle, with both re-upping with the Brewers for an 8th season
- Lutz, Bullock, Lazar, Ward and Diaz all compete hard, then head out to other organizations as MILB free agents at year-end

Do you think there is any chance the pedigree or "prospect inertia" keeps Lutz in the org for an eighth year if he has an OPS around .750?

[sveumrules]

30 minutes ago, logani54 said:

Do you think there is any chance the pedigree or "prospect inertia" keeps Lutz in the org for an eighth year if he has an OPS around .750?

If Lutz has another solid but unspectacular season this year at AAA my guess would be he tries to find an org with less OF depth for 2024.

As it stands now for 2024 Brewers would have Yelich (maybe transitioning to DH), Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Taylor, Chourio all for sure ahead of him on the depth chart before getting into guys like Perkins (currently on 40 man) or Black (looking like he’ll be playing plenty of CF in Biloxi this year) or even Noah Campbell who has performed in the same general ballpark as Tristen over the last couple years but brings more positional versatility.