Article: Trade Options to Upgrade the Brewers' Sluggish Offense

[Jake McKibbin]

The Milwaukee Brewers have been in a slump for the last two weeks, in particular against any left-handed starter. Even against righties, they have struggled with hitting slumps from Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, Brian Anderson, Brice Turang, and the lack of power from Jesse Winker and Luke Voit. It’s been a rough few weeks against weaker teams. So how can this be corrected? 

Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

 

Let’s have a look at a few potential trade targets. There has been a lack of hard-hit balls (save from Rowdy Tellez, who has performed admirably), and the backup crew of Owen Miller and Mike Brosseau have struggled to impact games with their right-handed bats against southpaws.

In 2021, just a few weeks deeper into the season than we are now, Milwaukee acquired Willy Adames for pitchers JP Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. Adames instantly kickstarted a sluggish offense. Who could have a similar impact in 2023?

J.D. Davis – Third Base, San Francisco Giants

Current Contract - $4.21 million, under team control via arbitration in 2024

Davis has come out firing this season, assuaging concerns about his defense and really providing an impact on offense for the Giants. Given Brian Anderson’s streaky form and his viability in right field, and that Luis Urias may be more suited to playing second base, there is a gap for Davis at the hot corner.

Davis is currently in the 99th percentile for outs above average, with slick range and hard, accurate throws leading him to five outs above average (OAA), but his biggest importance to the Brewers would lie in the bat, which is profiling incredibly well.

He has a:
-          92.2 MPH average exit velocity (87th percentile)
-          54% Hard-Hit Rate (94th percentile)
-          .278/.347/.500 slash line

The downside is, he hasn’t hit lefties at all so far this season, with just a .414 OPS across 33 plate appearances, although he has a career .771 OPS against them. He is a reverse platoon split guy, but that OPS is far better than the majority of Brewers hitters are currently putting up.

He’s hit six home runs so far this season, and is a player who can make a real difference in both aspects of the game. The question is: What would the Giants want in return? A sort of rebuild is going on at the moment, but they have enough pieces that they could contend if they get hot. They may want someone like Adames given that Brandon Crawford is coming to the end of his career–although obviously, they’d have to include much more than Davis in order to entice the Brewers to deal their starting shortstop.

C.J. Cron – First Base, Colorado Rockies

Current Contract - $7,25 million, free agent after 2023

Cron was an annual scrapheap slugger before arriving in Colorado, but the fit of his power and overall profile with Coors Field convinced the Rockies to make a medium-term commitment to him. A plus defender at first base (with substantially more range than Rowdy Tellez), he hits from the right side, and has a .303 average against lefties so far this season, and a career .818 OPS against them. He had a slow start to the season, but is starting to pick it up, currently sitting at a 100 OPS+.
He has a:

-          17.6%  barrel rate (92nd percentile)
-          .506 expected slugging (83rd percentile)

On the flip side, he is in the 11th percentile for whiff rate, and the 29th percentile for walks and strikeouts, potentially demonstrating a regression toward a skill set like that of 2022’s Brewers offense, although they haven’t shown that same power stroke so far this season.

His cost is hard to estimate given that the Rockies aren’t competitive this season, but their front office isn’t known for its proactiveness or its transactionality. Cron is set to be a free agent at season’s end, but the team hasn’t automatically dealt players in similar situations over the last two years.

Eduardo Escobar – Third Base, NY Mets

Current Contract - $10 million, free agent after 2023

Eduardo Escobar hasn’t had a strong start to the season, but given Brett Baty’s emergence pushing him down the pecking order, the Mets may be willing to offload his salary and trade him. Escobar goes on hot streaks, like the one he managed at the end of last year, and has been regarded as a good defender at third base, something which cannot be said for Mike Brosseau. His expected slugging has never been what it is now, and is likely to rebound around the .400 mark, while he has been hitting the ball hard with more regularity this season–albeit without the results to show for it. 

He has found his timing much easier against left-handers, to the tune of a .700 OPS thus far, but is never likely to be a difference-maker on offense. Rather, as a backup and as a switch-hitter, Escobar would provide Craig Counsell with value that far surpasses that of Brosseau so far this season. Escobar is unlikely to have cost the Crew four runs Wednesday night, for instance.

He has a
-       Career .741 OPS, with a career .780 OPS against left-handed pitchers
-       Had an xwOBA over .500 in a hot streak to finish the 2022 season with the Mets over the final two months
-       Recorded sweet spot launch angles on average last year in every area of the zone as a right-handed hitter (13 degrees to 26 degrees)

Escobar isn’t a flashy potential acquisition, but he has a positive clubhouse presence, some fresh energy, and a consistent AB to offer. He also has the potential to carry an offense when he gets hot, as he did for the Mets last season, and would be a versatile, plus defender that doesn’t cost games with routine misplays.

His cost is unlikely to be too high, and the Brewers could trade Brosseau and from their AAA reliever depth.

Who do you think could make an instant impression on this offense the way that Adames did in 2021?

 

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[igor67]

None of those is super exciting, Cron would be great but it is hard not to picture him as a bit of Coors mirage waiting to happen. But a defensive upgrade at first who hits lefties well would be a great addition if it existed.

[wibadgers23]

Hard to believe we're middle of the pack in homeruns, considering we've gotten nothing out of Voit, Contreras and Winker in that department.

[wiguy94]

Don’t see JD Davis remotely being an option. No chance the Giants are sellers this early into the season. 
 

Eduardo Escobar looks completely washed so I’d pass on that too. 
 

Cron’s walk and K rates haven’t been good since the start of last season and his home/road splits have been crazy since he got to Colorado. Tellez is also our best hitter so 1B doesn’t remotely feel like a need. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I stand by the belief it was a mistake to let Kyle Garlick pass through waivers when he was offered up. He's a good low-cost solution to LHP and the Brewers really needed that this offseason.

[Jake McKibbin]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Don’t see JD Davis remotely being an option. No chance the Giants are sellers this early into the season. 
 

Eduardo Escobar looks completely washed so I’d pass on that too. 
 

Cron’s walk and K rates haven’t been good since the start of last season and his home/road splits have been crazy since he got to Colorado. Tellez is also our best hitter so 1B doesn’t remotely feel like a need. 

Davis might be an option, it depends how the Giants see next season as well, and what they'd get back, but I can definitely picture them selling at the deadline, or before with the Diamondbacks form and the way in which LA have picked up, plus the Padres have performed much better recently since Tatis came back, Grisham has been exceptional for them. Whether that's Davis or someone else, that remains to be seen but a trade like the Adames one where both sides get some talent major league ready would be possible for sure. 

 

Cron would be a back up for sure, and I really like how Rowdy's been playing, but given he'd be taking Luke Voit's and some of Winker's AB's I'd be okay with that, especially at the price of Cron.

 

Escobar hit like a monster at the tail end of last season, and is slashing .286/.348/.714 over his last seven games, after a shocking start to the season, I wouldn't call him washed up just yet, and the veteran presence is always invaluable when you're losing games and injuries are hitting hard.

57 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I stand by the belief it was a mistake to let Kyle Garlick pass through waivers when he was offered up. He's a good low-cost solution to LHP and the Brewers really needed that this offseason.

 

I think it's understandable why they didn't when you go into a season with so many outfield prospects in the wings, but in hindsight this would have been brilliant. A career 129 OPS+ against lefties would be a big improvement, what would it take to get him from the twins do you think?

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I think it's understandable why they didn't when you go into a season with so many outfield prospects in the wings, but in hindsight this would have been brilliant. A career 129 OPS+ against lefties would be a big improvement, what would it take to get him from the twins do you think?

I don't think the Twins are going to part with him. They have a slew of LHB outfielders and Garlick is a backup plan should the Twins need to dip into their minor league system.

The time to get Garlick was when he went on waivers.

[Outlander]

The Brewers can make an incremental improvement by actually getting a right handed platoon bat that can hit LHP. Lane Thomas of the Nationals fits, get rid of Voit.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Outlander said:

The Brewers can make an incremental improvement by actually getting a right handed platoon bat that can hit LHP. Lane Thomas of the Nationals fits, get rid of Voit.

I like Thomas. But with the OFs already in the system I don't see us giving up whatever he might cost as I think he's under control for a couple more years.

Personally, I want to see Hiura hit a few more bombs in Nashville so the drum can be beaten to get him back to Milwaukee. Now THAT'S entertainment.