Brewers (Miley) vs Dodgers (Kershaw): 8/16/23, 9:10pm

[Bulldogboy]

8 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Look, winning the division is cool if we can get it. It's an accomplishment. It's something. 

But it's nearly impossible to see this team giving the Braves or Dodgers even a remotely competitive series. 

I think in '18, and '21, it pretty much felt like, we've got a shot to make some noise in the playoffs. This year is a little different. It'd be great to get in, and maybe we could even win a series, but the road ends there. 

Fact is going into next year I'm guessing Brewers might be picked 3rd or 4th depending on what Cards do in division. If you don't want to bring in at least two big bats then they are going to fall behind. 

[Bulldogboy]

Anderson hustling out the box. Good to see. Lol

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Anderson hustling out the box. Good to see. Lol

DFA that bum. 

[Ro Mueller]

Hey, we let Toro bat.

Now the big question: will we allow him to play in the field? Put him at 3B, shift Anderson to RF, Frelick to CF? More likely to put Taylor in CF…

[Ro Mueller]

Just now, damuelle said:

Hey, we let Toro bat.

Now the big question: will we allow him to play in the field? Put him at 3B, shift Anderson to RF, Frelick to CF? More likely to put Taylor in CF…

Didn’t let him play in the field… :( Have mercy…

[Ro Mueller]

I forgot that Trevor Megill throws 100.9mph

[Brewcrew82]

And for the final kick to the nuts, the Dodgers have fixed Gus Varland...

[Bulldogboy]

13 minutes ago, damuelle said:

Didn’t let him play in the field… :( Have mercy…

Anderson in right? Nah bro. DFA 

[Jim French Stepstool]

My biggest takeaway from tonite's game-----I'm really surprised that Freddie Freemans' mom is qualified to be an official scorer.

From what I know of Wade Miley, I suspect some items were destroyed in the clubhouse after he left. And I wouldn't blame him. I'd actually think it weird if that DIDN'T happen.

I've defended Brian Anderson in the past. But fire away. I don't know how much his poor ABs have to do with inactivity, but he looks lost. There will be some clamoring for Tyler Black, I'm sure. No matter how bad he looks at the plate, Anderson is still their best third baseman, it just comes down to how much they trust Monasterio there, and while I hope I'm wrong I think his solid defense up to this point could be in for a correction. Maybe one of the minor league guys could chime in on how Black has looked at third.

 

[BlightyBrew]

Last two games:

56 AB ; 3 R; 5 H (2 were HR) ; 4 BB; 13 SO

Of the 18 offensive innings 4.1 were just K's. 

Crew are 32-35 against teams that are at .500 or better right now.  10 of those wins are from the Reds (really had the Reds number this year).  So taking the Reds games away it is 22-32 - 10 games below .500.

Doesn't matter who is pitching or how many defensive runs saved the Crew get, still going to give up on average 3 runs a game.  Offense needs to be able to score 3 or more runs a game consistently and they struggle to do that against teams with winning records. Scoring runs in the playoffs, if we get there, is harder than scoring runs in the regular season.

Crew doesn't hit enough for average.  Doesn't hit enough for extra base hits or HR's.  Their ability to walk is nullified by the K rate.  This is still a station to station offense and has been all year.  

I said at the end of spring training that this team would get 83 wins with the way the  FO created the offensive roster.  Nothing I've seen has changed my opinion that the Crew will be 2 games above .500 when it's all said and done.  Is that enough to get in the playoffs?  Maybe. Can they get hot and carry a playoff series and win a WS.  Don't know.

 

[SomewhereInTime]

8 minutes ago, BlightyBrew said:

Last two games:

56 AB ; 3 R; 5 H (2 were HR) ; 4 BB; 13 SO

Of the 18 offensive innings 4.1 were just K's. 

Crew are 32-35 against teams that are at .500 or better right now.  10 of those wins are from the Reds (really had the Reds number this year).  So taking the Reds games away it is 22-32 - 10 games below .500.

Doesn't matter who is pitching or how many defensive runs saved the Crew get, still going to give up on average 3 runs a game.  Offense needs to be able to score 3 or more runs a game consistently and they struggle to do that against teams with winning records. Scoring runs in the playoffs, if we get there, is harder than scoring runs in the regular season.

Crew doesn't hit enough for average.  Doesn't hit enough for extra base hits or HR's.  Their ability to walk is nullified by the K rate.  This is still a station to station offense and has been all year.  

I said at the end of spring training that this team would get 83 wins with the way the  FO created the offensive roster.  Nothing I've seen has changed my opinion that the Crew will be 2 games above .500 when it's all said and done.  Is that enough to get in the playoffs?  Maybe. Can they get hot and carry a playoff series and win a WS.  Don't know.

 

13ks over two full games really isn't a lot in today's MLB.  In fact I can think of three times in this game where I wish the hitter would have K instead of hitting into a double play.  Also 83 wins would put them 4 games over .500 for the season and would require a losing record the rest of the way.

[BlightyBrew]

12 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

13ks over two full games really isn't a lot in today's MLB.  In fact I can think of three times in this game where I wish the hitter would have K instead of hitting into a double play.  Also 83 wins would put them 4 games over .500 for the season and would require a losing record the rest of the way.

My point is, while 13 K over two games isn't alot in today's MLB, but for the Crew it is because the high K rate is compounded by the fact that we don't hit for average or have any power in the lineup.  So they are limiting their opportunities to do anything with the bat.  Basically on average they need 4 hits to score a run which isn't sustainable.

Right now Crew has K 47 more times than the league average and are in the top half of teams with the most K's

Your right 83 is 4 games above .500 didn't realize I hit the "2" key.  It's late. 

Games remaining:

1 LAD; 3 PHI ; 3 WAS ; 7 MIA; 6 CHC; 7 STL; 7 PIT; 3 SD; 3 NYY; 2 MIN ; 3 TEX

 I only see 18 or 19 wins.  I do thing we will have a losing record the rest of the way.  

Of the schedule left where do you think the wins are going to come from? 

[HarryDoyle]

Sooooo..........you guys having fun staying up until midnight watching these games?

[Jake McKibbin]

48 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

Sooooo..........you guys having fun staying up until midnight watching these games?

Currently on holiday in Romania, I can almost watch these games live at 5.10 am 😂

[BruisedCrew]

7 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

We've outplayed the dodgers today with our 4th starter against what I assume is one of their top starters still. Bad luck today. I think the Brewers can hold their own against any team in the NL aside from probably the braves.

A few hard hit balls that could have been hits, but saying the Brewers outplayed the Dodgers is quite a stretch. Failing to make plays in the field is part of the game too. 

3 runs on 5 hits in two games isn’t going to get it done against many teams.

For the record, I see that the fly ball that Wiemer dropped was correctly changed to an error. 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, HarryDoyle said:

Sooooo..........you guys having fun staying up until midnight watching these games?

Both games have been decided by 10:30 so it hasn’t been an issue. 

[KeithStone53151]

3 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

A few hard hit balls that could have been hits, but saying the Brewers outplayed the Dodgers is quite a stretch. Failing to make plays in the field is part of the game too. 

3 runs on 5 hits in two games isn’t going to get it done against many teams.

For the record, I see that the fly ball that Wiemer dropped was correctly changed to an error. 

It's not a stretch if you actually watched the game. The Dodgers had probably 5 soft hits fall in, the Brewers had 3 or 4 over 100 exit velo outs...one of which was an inning ending double play lineout. Add in the umpire having his head buried in the sand and letting JD Martinez stand outside the batters box and intentionally hit the catchers glove...the Brewers played better baseball yesterday and got unlucky. 

[BruisedCrew]

40 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

It's not a stretch if you actually watched the game. The Dodgers had probably 5 soft hits fall in, the Brewers had 3 or 4 over 100 exit velo outs...one of which was an inning ending double play lineout. Add in the umpire having his head buried in the sand and letting JD Martinez stand outside the batters box and intentionally hit the catchers glove...the Brewers played better baseball yesterday and got unlucky. 

I did watch the game until the score got to 6-1, and we’ll just have to agree to disagree. 
 

I’m not going to argue about the two catcher’s interference calls because it was ridiculous the way Martinez swung at those pitches. I’m not sure if he was standing any further back than a lot of other hitters. For as long as I’ve watched baseball it has been common for batters to rub out the back line of the box and stand as far back as they can get away with. 

Other than that, though, I consider soft hits and hard hit outs to be part of the game. Smith’s dribbler was extreme but I don’t think there was anything unusual about some of the other “soft” hits. Sharp grounders hit right into the defense are not unusual either. 
 

Maybe what we need is to change the game from baseball to “Exit Velocity Ball” to cut down on some of the whining coming from the Brewers announcers the the last two days. When elite  hitters like Betts and Freeman get their bats on the ball and drop soft liners into the outfield, to me that is good hitting, not pure, dumb luck. The Dodgers’ 2 HRs were not lucky either.

I also consider the ball that Wiemer misplayed and dropped to be a significant factor in the game that cuts against the notion that the Brewers outplayed the Dodgers. I guess if every sharply hit ball the Brewers hit had gone for a hit, and every soft ball the Dodgers hit had turned into an out the Brewers might have won. 

 

 

 

[KeithStone53151]

6 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I did watch the game until the score got to 6-1, and we’ll just have to agree to disagree. 
 

I’m not going to argue about the two catcher’s interference calls because it was ridiculous the way Martinez swung at those pitches. I’m not sure if he was standing any further back than a lot of other hitters. For as long as I’ve watched baseball it has been common for batters to rub out the back line of the box and stand as far back as they can get away with. 

Other than that, though, I consider soft hits and hard hit outs to be part of the game. Smith’s dribbler was extreme but I don’t think there was anything unusual about some of the other “soft” hits. Sharp grounders hit right into the defense are not unusual either. 
 

Maybe what we need is to change the game from baseball to “Exit Velocity Ball” to cut down on some of the whining coming from the Brewers announcers the the last two days. When elite  hitters like Betts and Freeman get their bats on the ball and drop soft liners into the outfield, to me that is good hitting, not pure, dumb luck. The Dodgers’ 2 HRs were not lucky either.

I also consider the ball that Wiemer misplayed and dropped to be a significant factor in the game that cuts against the notion that the Brewers outplayed the Dodgers. I guess if every sharply hit ball the Brewers hit had gone for a hit, and every soft ball the Dodgers hit had turned into an out the Brewers might have won. 

 

Some hits are luckier than others. The Dodgers had a lot of batted balls that are outs far more often than not, the Brewers had a lot of batted balls that are hits far more often than not. Luck is part of the game, and this isn't the first time the team with the better batted ball profile lost a game. If we play a game today with a similar batted ball profile, odds are the Brewers are likely to come out ahead.

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Some hits are luckier than others. The Dodgers had a lot of batted balls that are outs far more often than not, the Brewers had a lot of batted balls that are hits far more often than not. Luck is part of the game, and this isn't the first time the team with the better batted ball profile lost a game. If we play a game today with a similar batted ball profile, odds are the Brewers are likely to come out ahead.

Again, there’s a lot more to baseball than “batted ball profile”. 

I’m not a huge disciple of things like exit velocity, launch angle, and xBA because I’m not sure if they can take into account how well a team positions its  defense, executes its pitching game plan to get hitters to hit into the defense, and then makes the plays to convert batted balls into outs. But I do note that Baseball Savant lists the Brewers xBA last night at .204, which doesn’t sound like a great batted ball profile. 

While there is going to be some luck in every game, I’m not convinced that the Brewers luck last night was so bad that it would have turned  a 7-1 loss into a win.